It all comes down to this. After a tight, bruising series, the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx head into a massive Game 5 tonight at Target Center.
The WNBA player props market has a narrower feel given the likely heavy minutes for both teams’ starters — and my favorite WNBA picks for this October 8 showdown include the two best players on the court.
Make sure to also check out our Sun vs. Lynx predictions before placing your bets!
Sun vs Lynx Game 5 props
- Napheesa Collier Over 9.5 rebounds (-106 at FanDuel)
- Alyssa Thomas Over 14.5 points (+102 at FanDuel)
- Kayla McBride Under 12.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 10-8 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Sun vs Lynx props
Prop bet #1: Napheesa Collier Over 9.5 rebounds
Napheesa Collier couldn’t have done much more to put the Minnesota Lynx in position to snatch Game 4, but her 29 points and 13 rebounds were in vain on Sunday.
Still, Collier is poised to do the heavy lifting in the paint once again tonight, and I’m jumping on the Over for her rebounds prop as she takes on an imposing Connecticut Sun frontcourt.
Collier has had double-digit boards in each of her last three contests while averaging 11 rebounds per game in this semifinal series, and these deciding matchups often trend towards nervy, low-scoring scraps.
Even on the best of days, the Sun can go through offensive droughts, and they averaged 75 points per game in the first two outings against Minnesota. When you tack on the high stakes tonight, there should be plenty of misses for the Lynx defenders to vacuum up.
A trip to the WNBA Finals would be a fitting finale for Collier after such a stellar year, and her work on the glass could help swing Game 5 in the home team’s favor.
Prop bet #2: Alyssa Thomas Over 14.5 points
This is a prop I pushed hard ahead of Game 4, and I see major value here again as Connecticut enters a second straight elimination game.
Alyssa Thomas is a good bet to play the full 40 minutes tonight, and she finished with 18 points on 8-for-17 shooting in Game 4. The 14.5 O/U line feels low considering that Thomas has poured in at least 17 points in four of her past five outings, and she seems to have got the memo about being a little greedier with her shot selection.
It also helped that the Sun went small for chunks of Game 4 as Brionna Jones only played 14 minutes, opening up more room for Thomas to operate.
I’m predicting a similar script tonight. Thomas is still going to take charge of play-making duties for Connecticut (she had 11 dimes on Sunday), but a scoring mentality will be critical to get the visitors over the hump and into the Finals.
A good start is a must for the Sun, with Target Center sure to be rocking — and that just adds to the case for Thomas to seize the initiative and attack the basket.
Prop bet #3: Kayla McBride Under 12.5 points
Kayla McBride was one of Minnesota’s rocks during the regular season, but she hasn’t hit the same heights as a scorer against this swarming Sun defense.
McBride was one of the Lynx players who couldn’t get going to support Collier’s monster effort in Game 4 — and with Connecticut hounding her on the perimeter, I see McBride’s struggles continuing tonight.
The Minnesota veteran only took six shots on Sunday, finishing with five points, and she’s fallen short of this O/U line in three of the four games in this series.
But it’s not as simple as just expecting McBride to chase a larger shot volume. There are other mouths to feed in this Lynx offense, including the uber-confident Courtney Williams and Bridget Carleton, who attempted 11 threes over the weekend.
McBride’s No. 1 job is getting the ball to Collier, and her own scoring can take a back seat as a result. If this Game 5 battle slows to a grind, this could be one of several points props that cash in the Under.
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