After a grueling four games, the Connecticut Sun meet the Minnesota Lynx in Minneapolis for a winner-take-all Game 5 with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line.
This series has been a roller coaster, but my Sun vs. Lynx predictions expect the road team to cover the spread in this do-or-die spot. Read my WNBA picks to see why you should take the Sun and the points on Tuesday, October 8.
Be sure to also check out our favorite Sun vs. Lynx prop picks before placing your wagers!
Sun vs Lynx predictions
My best bet
Sun +4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx have battled hard through four games, and there’s been no clear-cut advantage to point out. Each team has won and covered once on the road and once at home.
And while three of the four games have been decided by seven or more points, the Lynx have only scored three more total points in the series. Neither team has dominated, and key runs throughout have evened things up to force a winner-take-all Game 5.
The Lynx are young and hungry, but the Sun are battle-tested. Connecticut has been to the Finals in two of the last five seasons, and the team has won its last two winner-take-all appearances. That includes a Game 5 victory over the Chicago Sky in the 2022 semifinals and a Game 3 victory over the Lynx in the 2023 first round. Both wins came on the road.
Three of the seven games between these two teams in 2024 have been decided by three or fewer points. The road team has covered in five of seven, and Connecticut is 2-1 ATS in three games at Target Center this season. This has been a tightly-contested playoff series after a hard-fought regular-season series, and 4.5 points is a generous number to give a veteran Sun team looking to make the Finals for the third time in six seasons.
Sun vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Sun +4.5
Napheesa Collier Over 30.5 pts+reb
Alyssa Thomas Over 32.5 pts+reb+ast
Napheesa Collier is the W’s leading scorer in the playoffs, and she’s been effective as a rebounder, too. With a trip to the Finals on the line, I expect big minutes and big production from Minnesota’s star.
Collier averaged 30.3 pts+reb during the regular season, but she’s been slightly better against Connecticut, going for 30.8 in seven matchups. Collier hit the Over on this prop in 22 of 40 games this season, and she’s done it four times in six playoff appearances while averaging 36.5 pts+reb.
Alyssa Thomas has been phenomenal for Connecticut during this playoff run, and I expect the 32-year-old leader to do all she can to get her team back to the Finals. Through six postseason appearances in 2024, Thomas is averaging 16.2 points, 8.7 rebounds and 10 assists, good for 34.9 PRAs. She’s hit the Over on this prop in five of six, and it’s hard to bet against her in this pivotal spot. Thomas has played in four winner-take-all playoff games in her career and averaged 20.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and 9.5 assists. She’s not afraid of a big moment, and her PRAs line is one that I’m gladly attacking.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sun vs Lynx odds
Sun vs Lynx live odds
Get the latest Sun vs Lynx WNBA odds for tonight.
Sun vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Connecticut +3.5 | Minnesota -3.5
- Moneyline: Connecticut +137 | Minnesota -158
- Over/Under: Over 152 | Under 152
Sun vs Lynx series odds
- Sun: +137
- Lynx: -158
Sun vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Sun are 5-2 ATS over their last seven on the road, including 4-1 ATS in their last five semifinal matchups.
- The Lynx are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.
- Connecticut is 21-25 to the Under on the season, and the team has hit the Under in five of its last six games on the road.
- Minnesota is 20-24-2 to the Under in 2024, and the Lynx have hit the Under in 12 of the last 16 at home.
Sun vs Lynx trend
There’s been no clear homecourt advantage between the Sun and Lynx, as the road team is 5-2 ATS in seven matchups this season. Dating back to last season, the Sun are 4-1 ATS over their last five at Target Center. The Under has also hit four times in the last five trips to Minneapolis. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Lynx.
Sun vs Lynx game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Tuesday, 10-8-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Sun vs Lynx latest injuries
Sun: Tiffany Mitchell G (Game-time decision).
Lynx: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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