The Connecticut Sun are among the top WNBA contenders again this year, and they’ll look to build on their 14-4 record as they visit the Phoenix Mercury on July 1.
A fresher Connecticut team is the slight favorite in the latest WNBA odds, and my Sun vs. Mercury predictions expect the visitors to cover. The WNBA picks below explain how they'll pull it off.
Sun vs Mercury predictions
My best bet
Sun -2.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
This is a star-studded matchup, even with the Phoenix Mercury dragging in an underwhelming 9-9 mark so far this season, and I see this big game bringing out the best of the Connecticut Sun.
Connecticut cruised to an emphatic 80-47 victory in the prior meeting this season — but Griner was still sidelined with a toe injury, so I’m not putting too much weight on that lopsided scoreline.
Instead, it’s the Sun’s steady 6-2 road record and their consistency pointing me toward laying the points tonight. With DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas leading the way, I expect a response from this veteran Connecticut team after hitting their first tricky patch of the season.
The other big factor is the Sun’s defense, which has long been their calling card, and it’s no surprise to see this group allowing the fewest points per game in the WNBA (73.1 ppg). That includes holding opponents to a shade under 30% from 3-point range, and the visitors are well positioned to limit Diana Taurasi’s attempts from downtown.
On the other end of the floor, Connecticut should walk into some decent looks against a Mercury defense struggling to hold teams below 80 points.
It also doesn’t hurt Connecticut players have had a couple of days off to prepare for this matchup, and it sets the stage for a dominant effort at Footprint Center tonight.
Sun vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Sun -2.5
Alyssa Thomas Over 9.5 rebounds
Kahleah Copper Under 19.5 points
Thomas sets the tone for the Sun, and it’s no coincidence her numbers have dipped a little during Connecticut’s mini slump. I expect her to be a force on the glass tonight, and I’m adding the plus odds for Over 9.5 rebounds.
It’s going to take a team effort from the visitors to keep Griner off the boards here, and a bounce-back win for the Sun likely includes a big game from Thomas, who had 14 boards against the Seattle Storm last weekend.
Connecticut’s physical defense also makes the Phoenix points prop Unders worth a look. I’m picking Kahleah Copper as one Mercury scorer who could struggle against the visitors’ relentless perimeter pressure.
Copper was held to just seven points on 2-for-11 shooting in her last outing against the Sun back in late May.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sun vs Mercury odds
Sun vs Mercury live odds
Get the latest Sun vs Mercury WNBA odds for tonight.
Sun vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Connecticut -1 (-110) | Phoenix +1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Connecticut -115 | Phoenix -105
- Over/Under: Over 160 (-110) | Under 160 (-110)
Sun vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis
- Though the Sun haven’t covered the spread in any of their last five contests, it’s understandable to see the Mercury as home underdogs, given their inconsistent 2024 form, including being outscored 50-33 in the second half against the Fever yesterday.
- Phoenix is 6-2 at home this season but it’s tough to overlook defensive flaws — the hosts are giving up 84.6 ppg, fourth-most in the league.
- The Under is 7-3 in the Mercury’s last 10 games and it’s hit in four of the past six meetings between these teams.
- A total of 157.5 factors in Connecticut’s top-tier defense, and that line seems about right for a game where both teams could struggle to reach the 80-point mark.
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Sun vs Mercury trend
With a home-heavy recent schedule, the Mercury have hit the Under in four of their last five games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Mercury.
Sun vs Mercury game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Monday, 7-1-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Arizona's Family Sports, NBC Sports Boston |
Sun vs Mercury latest injuries
Sun: Moriah Jefferson G (Out).
Mercury: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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