The Eastern Conference-leading Connecticut Sun head to the nation's capital today to take on the Washington Mystics Sunday, June 19.
Our WNBA picks and predictions for Sun vs. Mystics include who we’re taking on the spread as well as why we believe we’re in for a low-scoring game.
Sun vs Mystics odds
The Sun opened as 3-point road favorites over the Mystics with the total set at 154.5.
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Sun vs Mystics predictions
Predictions made on 6/19/2022 at 12:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sun vs Mystics info
• Location: Entertainment & Sports Arena, Washington, DC
• Date: Sunday, June 19, 2022
• Tip-off: 2:00 p.m. ET
• TV: fuboTV
Sun vs Mystics betting preview
Key injuries
Sun: Jasmine Thomas (Out).
Mystics: Shakira Austin (Questionable), Myisha Hines-Allen (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 12-4 in Washington's last 16 home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Mystics.
Sun vs Mystics picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The WNBA moves fast. The Washington Mystics were league champions just a few years ago in 2019 and yet missed the playoffs entirely last season.
Of course, last year they were almost entirely without the services of one Elena Delle Donne, their star player and one of the most skilled scorers in the league. So it’s not surprising that the Mystics have been a bit of a rollercoaster this season because it’s readily apparent that Washington will only go as far as Delle Donne can take them.
As if to punctuate that point, the Mystics suffered a bad loss to the New York Liberty in their previous game, with Delle Donne once again sidelined. So far, Elena Delle Donne has only played in 10 of the Mystics' 17 games due to back spasms and ongoing injury management, but when she’s in the game, as she’s expected to be Sunday, the Mystics are as dominating as ever.
Her game is evolving too, and she’s developed her outside shot more and more as she’s less able to rely on her athleticism to score in the in-between spaces of the court she likes so much. She’s up to shooting 7.5 threes per game, a career-high, on 39.5%, both elite marks.
The Mystics win games by leveraging their superlative defense and an above-average offense, and with Delle Donne in the lineup, they’re better on both ends than their year-long ratings suggest.
And good thing too, because the Sun are among the top teams in the WNBA this season. Not many teams would be able to lose a quality starter like Jasmine Thomas to an ACL at the beginning of the season and still have the best offense in the WNBA at 108.7 as well as the second-best net rating behind the Las Vegas Aces at +11.8.
That's in part because they've been dominating opposing teams on the boards. They own the top offensive rebounding rate in the league at 37.2%, nearly 5% higher than the second-place Dallas Wings. They’re also aggressive in attacking the basket and are third in overall free throw rate at 31.9%. However, the Mystics conversely are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the league, and they rarely commit fouls.
If the Sun have any weakness, it’s turnovers. They give up the ball only nearly one in five of their possessions at 19.3%, the fourth-highest rate in the W.
The Sun have been rolling, but I like the Mystics to cover with the Delle Devil back on the court this afternoon.
Prediction: Mystics +3 (-110 at William Hill)
Over/Under analysis
On the face of it, it’s tempting to take the Over at this number. The Sun, after all, are a high-powered offense, they eat on the boards, and can score in a variety of ways, but the Mystics' defense is nothing to sneeze at either. They’re second overall at 95.7, and that’s with Delle Donne having missed significant time.
While the Delle Devil is an offense-first player, she’s an impactful defender too, capable of defending bigs and wings on the perimeter and protecting the rim in a pinch. And critically, she’s grabbing 11.5 rebounds per game, limiting opponents' second-chance points, which is where the Sun do a great deal of damage to unprepared teams.
However, the main thing is that the Mystics are really good at mucking up the game and making opponents play their way. They play at the slowest pace in the W at just 93.97 and will do their best to take the Sun out of rhythm. They’re particularly good at this when playing in their barn, with the Under hitting in 12 of their last 16 home games.
I like Washington's chances to slow this game down and keep Connecticut from their typical offensive outbursts.
Prediction: Under 154.5 (-110 at William Hill)
Best bet
The Mystics at full strength are just fundamentally sound, it’s just that without Delle Donne their team structure completely fails.
They don’t foul or turn the ball over and they dominate the defensive glass. They give opponents few opportunities to win the possession game, and they’re also among the best in the W at contesting opponent shots.
With Delle Donne at something approaching full strength, they can compete with just about anybody and should cover on Sunday.
Pick: Mystics +3 (-110 at William Hill)
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