Two teams riding surprising streaks will face off tonight as the Connecticut Sun take on the Washington Mystics.
The Sun have dropped off from their fast start by losing two in a row but somehow remain double-digit favorites against a Mystics side that has won four of their last five.
My Suns vs. Mystics predictions break down why the home team is catching too many points. Read more in our WNBA picks for Thursday, June 27.
Sun vs Mystics predictions
My best bet
Mystics +11 (-112 at DraftKings)
My analysis
We all knew the Washington Mystics wouldn’t stay winless forever, but their turnaround over the last two weeks has still been impressive.
Washington is coming off a two-game sweep of the Dallas Wings at home, to go along with recent wins over the Atlanta Dream and Chicago Sky. None of those came against elite competition, but they are enough proof that Washington isn’t some terrible outlier; instead, it is a squad we should expect to compete on a nightly basis.
The Mystics have the numbers to support that evaluation as well. Washington has played teams close all season long, putting up a point differential of -3.3 — far better than the other bottom dwellers in the standings. Notably, it has only lost three games by double figures, keeping it close against almost every opponent this year.
While one of those blowout losses came at the hands of the Connecticut Sun (who beat the Mystics 76-59 in Connecticut on June 4), this rematch in Washington comes at a time when both teams find themselves playing much differently.
The Sun set a blistering pace to start the year but have since cooled in recent days against strong competition. Losses to the Seattle Storm and Las Vegas Aces aren’t cause for concern, but they do suggest that Connecticut might not be the unstoppable force it appeared to be in the first month or so of the season.
The Sun are just 3-4 against the spread this year when playing on the road, and this will be the first time they have been installed as such big favorites away from Mohegan Sun Arena. Even at home, they’ve shown that they can struggle a bit with the Mystics. In the first meeting between these teams back on May 17, the Sun needed a 15-0 run in the fourth quarter to win by a final score of 84-77.
Most of the teams in the WNBA are too closely matched to justify spreads above 10 points, and it’s especially true concerning tonight's matchup in D.C.
Sun vs Mystics same-game parlay (SGP)
Mystics +11
Over 152
Ariel Atkins Over 1.5 threes
Along with my best bet, I’ll also take the full game Over. Washington almost always plays above this 152-point total, and this is not a particularly high number for Connecticut, either.
Let's round out this SGP with a bet on Ariel Atkins to hit at least two 3-pointers tonight. Atkins has connected from deep at least twice in five of her last seven games and is a good bet to continue that trend against the Sun.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sun vs Mystics odds
Sun vs Mystics live odds
Get the latest Sun vs Mystics WNBA odds for tonight.
Sun vs Mystics opening odds
- Spread: Connecticut -8.5 (-115) | Washington +8.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Connecticut -500 | Washington +375
- Over/Under: Over 155.5 (-110) | Under 155.5 (-110)
Sun vs Mystics spread and Over/Under analysis
- Washington has a 10-6-1 record against the spread this season, while Connecticut is 7-10 ATS.
- The Mystics are 3-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs this year.
- Connecticut has played to an average total of 151.0 points this season, while Washington is averaging a total of 160.5.
- The Mystics have played above tonight’s total in each of their last seven games.
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Sun vs Mystics trend
The Mystics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Mystics.
Sun vs Mystics game info
| Location: | St. Elizabeths East Entertainment and Sports Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date: | Thursday, 6-27-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Monumental, NBCS-Boston |
Sun vs Mystics latest injuries
Sun: Shakira Austin C (Out), Brittney Sykes G (Out).
Mystics: Moriah Jefferson G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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