Battling for a Top 3 seed in the WNBA playoffs, the Connecticut Sun are in Los Angeles for a two-game mini-set with the Sparks beginning on Sunday night.
The Sun are 9-point favorites in the WNBA odds in a matchup they have dominated this decade, and my Sun vs. Sparks predictions call for much of the same thing this evening. Check out my free WNBA picks below.
Sun vs Sparks predictions
My best bet
Under 157.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Catching the Los Angeles Sparks this late in the season might just be the jolt the Connecticut Sun need, having lost two straight while falling from the second to third seed in the WNBA standings. The Sun have recorded 12 straight wins over the Sparks, including the first two this year.
Their defense remains top-end, holding teams to 74.3 points per game. Teams are shooting a paltry 31% from downtown vs. Connecticut, the second-best rate in the league.
However, even while holding their opponents under that scoring number in the last two games, the Sun have lost to contenders in Seattle and Vegas because the offense has dried up, averaging just 65.5 points per game.
Those are first-world problems compared to Los Angeles, who are dead-last in the W and the only team officially eliminated from playoff contention. Injuries and inconsistency have cratered this campaign, and the Sparks are staggering home losers of three straight with only two wins in their last 14 contests.
They’ve felt the Connecticut defensive package in both losses, averaging 65.5 points. The Sun lead the league in forcing turnovers and points off turnovers, and those were huge in the outcomes of both.
On June 18, L.A. turned it over 24 times, leading to 30 points in a 79-70 loss. On August 20, the Sparks had 22 turnovers, a 69-61 Sun victory, which translated into 20 Connecticut points.
There’s just not much resistance here from L.A., which is the third-lowest scoring team in the league at 79 points per game, matched by a Bottom 3 defense that is surrendering 86.6 points per contest. That includes allowing a league-worst 37.1% clip from 3-point range.
Connecticut is just a couple of games ahead of the surging Aces so the urgency is there, coupled with an opponent that is simply playing out the string. But the Sun’s offense is just not at a level that’s currently equipped to win by double-digits, and there’s little juice to squeeze on the moneyline.
Let's stick to the total, where the Under has cashed in both meetings this season and in three of the last four.
Sun vs Sparks same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 157.5
DeWanna Bonner Over 15.5 points
Alyssa Thomas Under 10.5 points
The scoring slide for Sun leading points-earner DeWanna Bonner continued as she put up just 11 points in 35 minutes in a 72-67 loss to the Aces. That’s now seven times in the last nine games she has failed to cross her 15.5-point line set for Sunday, scoring 11 or less five times.
However, L.A. could be her get-right team as Bonner has topped this prop against the Sparks in three of the last four head-to-head matchups.
Alyssa Thomas is also struggling after a recent knee injury. While she’s been doling out dimes at a solid rate (7.7 per game since the Olympic break) her scoring has plunged, dropping into single-digits in four straight and averaging just 8.6 points over the last 10.
That includes a nine-point game against the Sparks on a rough 4-for-12 shooting night. I’ll stick with the recent trend and go Under that 10.5-point line.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sun vs Sparks odds
Sun vs Sparks live odds
Get the latest Sun vs Sparks WNBA odds for tonight.
Sun vs Sparks opening odds
- Spread: Connecticut -9 (-110) | Los Angeles +9 (-110)
- Moneyline: Connecticut -420 | Los Angeles +310
- Over/Under: Over 157.5 (-110) | Under 157.5 (-110)
Sun vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Connecticut has won 12 straight games vs. Los Angeles.
- The Sun have covered in 14 of the last 17 head-to-head matchups with the Sparks.
- The Sparks are 1-9 in their last 10, but 5-5 against the spread.
Sun vs Sparks trend
The Sun have gone Under the total in four of their last six. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Sparks.
Sun vs Sparks game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-8-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Boston, Spectrum SportsNet |
Sun vs Sparks latest injuries
Sun: Tiffany Mitchell G (out).
Sparks: Aari McDonald G (game-time decision), Layshia Clarendon G (out), Lexie Brown G (out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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