Heading into New Year’s Weekend, the menu begins to expand for the college football bowl buffet, with five games on the Friday docket – including the first of the big New Year’s Six showdowns. Covers checks in on the action for all five games, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US in Las Vegas; Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics, also in Las Vegas; and Scott Kaminsky, director of offshore sportsbook TheGreek.com. **video
Cotton Bowl?
No. 7 Southern California Trojans vs. No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes – Open: -6.5; Move: -7; Move: -7.5
Ohio State won the Big Ten championship game, but that wasn’t quite enough to oust Alabama from the fourth and final spot in the College Football Playoff. So the Buckeyes (11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS) will settle for a New Year’s Six consolation prize in this 8:30 p.m. ET kickoff at AT&T Stadium. Urban Meyer’s troops held off Wisconsin 27-21 as a 3-point chalk to nab that Big Ten title on Dec. 2.
Southern Cal (11-2 SU) had a bumpier ride than expected this year, as evidenced by its 3-9-1 ATS mark, one of the worst in the nation. But the Trojans rebounded from a blowout loss at Notre Dame to win their last five outings, including a 31-28 victory over Stanford as a 3.5-point favorite in the Pac-12 title tilt.
“The sharps are definitely on Ohio State, but we’re pretty even to the game,” Bogdanovich said of pointspread action at William Hill’s dozens of books around Vegas, among more than 100 across Nevada. “I’m not shocked. USC is definitely a live ‘dog.”
CG books opened the Buckeyes at -6.5 and saw the number reach 8 by Tuesday afternoon.
“Eight times more money is on Ohio State on account, two times more money on Ohio State over the counter,” Bernanke said of pointspread betting. “So sharps and public are both backing the Buckeyes. But an interesting side note on this game: 90 percent of moneyline bets are coming in on USC. Those bettors want the big payout. There’s not as big a handle on that, but it’s interesting to see where the moneyline goes.”
Southern Cal was running +250 on the moneyline late Thursday night at CG books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip
Belk Bowl?
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons – Open: -3; Move: None
Texas A&M won four of its first five games and would’ve been 5-0 if it hadn’t blown a 44-10 third-quarter lead at UCLA in a 45-44 Week 1 loss as a 7-point pup. The Aggies (7-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) had an up-and-down second half of the season, and coach Kevin Sumlin got fired following the finale, a 45-21 loss at Louisiana State as an 11-point underdog.
Wake Forest (7-5 SU, 8-3-1 ATS) got out of the gate with four consecutive wins, but also couldn’t keep up the pace. The Demon Deacons were 10.5-point home favorites against Duke in the regular-season capper, but lost outright 31-23.
“We’ve been at 3 all the way,” Bogdanovich said of a line that hasn’t even seen a price adjustment off the flat -110 for this 1 p.m. ET start. “The money’s for Wake Forest. It’s not a lot of money, but it’s not small either. It’s weird. A&M is a football school, and Wake’s not. But bettors are going against these teams without coaches.”
Sun Bowl?
Arizona State is another program that fired its coach upon the end of the regular season. The Sun Devils (7-5 SU and ATS) won their last two games and three of their final four (3-1 ATS), but that couldn’t save Todd Graham’s job. ASU topped archrival Arizona 42-30 catching 2 points at home on Nov. 25.
North Carolina State was 6-1 SU (3-4 ATS) through seven games, but cooled off the rest of the way in finishing 8-4 SU (4-7-1 ATS). The Wolfpack wrapped up the regular season with a 33-21 victory over North Carolina as a 15-point home favorite.
“We’re a little high on the favorite,” Bogdanovich said of action leaning toward N.C. State in a 3 p.m. ET meeting. “ASU is another team with no coach. They’re betting against teams with no coaches. I can’t blame them.”
Kaminsky said the Wolfpack was also seeing the bulk of the action at TheGreek.com, taking the line up a point over the past two days, from the opener of N.C. State -6 to -7.
Music City Bowl
?Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 20 Northwestern Wildcats – Open: -7.5; Move: None
Northwestern hit bowl season among the hottest teams in college football, on the field and at the betting window, winning seven in a row SU and ATS. The purple-clad Wildcats (9-3 SU and ATS) capped the run with a 42-7 rout at Illinois as a 16.5-point fave.
Kentucky (7-5 SU) stumbled into its bowl appearance, losing three of the last four SU and ATS, and was a bad bet all season long at 3-9 ATS. In the Nov. 25 regular-season finale, the blue-clad Wildcats got run out of their own stadium by Louisville, 44-17 as a 10-point pup.
“We haven’t moved off 7.5,” Bogdanovich said. “We’re high on Northwestern, but not a lot of money in the pot.”
TheGreek.com opened Northwestern -7.5 back on Dec. 4 and stayed there until Thursday, before ticking up to 7.5 for the 4:30 p.m. ET matchup.
“North Carolina State and Northwestern have drawn the most money as of now,” Kaminsky said of action on today’s four bowl games prior to the USC-Ohio State clash. “And the public will most likely be riding those two (today). As far as the smart money, we’ll have to wait and see how that plays out.”
Arizona Bowl
?Utah State Aggies vs. New Mexico State Aggies – Open: +3; Move: +3.5; Move: +4
It’s a mediocre bowl game between two mediocre teams that share the same mascot name. Utah State (6-6 SU and ATS) won two of its final three games to become bowl-eligible, but lost its season finale at Air Force 38-35 catching 2.5 points.
New Mexico State (6-6 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) had to win its last two games to reach the postseason and did so as double-digit home underdogs both times. NMSU topped Idaho 17-10 getting 10 points, then bested South Alabama 22-17 as a 12-point ‘dog.
“This might be the least-bet game of what’s left. It’s even, but there’s hardly anything on that game,” Bogdanovich said, while noting he thinks even this lackluster 5:30 p.m. ET contest will eventually draw some dollars. “That’ll change. We’ll have a decision. People can’t help themselves.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
