The MLB All-Star Game is the only show in town for baseball bettors Tuesday night, with the American and National Leagues doing battle at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio (7:30 p.m. ET).
We dive into the odds for the MLB All-Star Game and break down the best bets and top predictions for the Mid-Summer Classic, from quick-paying plays, top props, and the moneyline and Over/Under.**video
NATIONAL LEAGUE ALL-STARS VS. AMERICAN LEAGUE ALL-STARS (-110, 8.5)
QUICK HITTER
Unlike most All-Star events around the sporting world, the MLB showcase isn’t bloated with an outpouring of offense. The American and National Leagues have played some low-scoring tight contests in recent years, and that competitiveness starts with the first pitch.
Generally, the respective managers will look to their top starter to open the game, and in the case of the All-Star Game, that means the best of the best: Top Gun style. With those elite aces on the mound to open the ASG, it’s no surprise the past six Mid-Summer Classics have produced a total of just five runs in the first innings (three of those coming in 2014). The past two All-Star Games, the AL and NL standouts have combined for a goose egg on the scoreboard and the 2013 game also featured a scoreless opening frame.
Astros starter Justin Verlander is first up for the AL, while Dodgers ace Hyun-jin Ryu gets the honors for the NL. Verlander has a 3.32 ERA in opening innings this season, but hasn't allowed a first-inning run in his last three starts. Ryu boasts a 3.71 first-inning ERA and blanked the Padres in the first inning of his previous start.
PREDICTION: Under 0.5 runs first inning
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FIRST FIVE INNINGS
While low-scoring first innings have been the trend in MLB All-Star Games, so have uneventful first-five-innings spans. Over the past six seasons, the first five innings of action have averaged 3.33 runs, and four of those events had three or fewer runs scored.
All-Star team managers are still working with some elite starters through the opening five innings, but we have seen an uptick in scoring in the first half of the 2019 schedule, especially in terms of power.
Both lineups are loaded with pop at the plate, with the American League starting lineup totaling 164 home runs (three players with 20-plus HRs) and the National League lineup touting 185 homers (NL has seven players with 20-plus HRs) – give or take if MLB home run leader Christian Yelich (31) plays or not.
The starting lineups will likely get two at-bats before managers start swapping in reserves, which means plenty of power-hitting potential in the early innings.
PREDICTION: Over 4.5 runs first five innings
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
As measured above, the American League doesn’t pack the same punch at the plate as its Senior Circuit foes, but does have a deeper collection of pure hitters on its All-Star roster.
Three of the top four leaders in total hits this season are featured among the AL All-Stars (but not Boston’s Rafael Devers – glaring ASG snub), including major-league hit leader Whit Merrifield of Kansas City coming off the bench as a reserve. Houston’s Michael Brantley, who ranks No. 7 in hits, is also among the American League starting lineup.
The MLB All-Star Game averaged 14 total hits between 2010 and 2015, but that jumped in the past three years, with 18 hits in 2016, 17 hits in 2017 and 20 hits in last July’s Mid-Summer Classic. The American League was responsible for 13 of those hits in 2018 and will rely on getting guys on base and advancing those runners more than the NL on Tuesday night.
PREDICTION: American League Over 8.5 hits
BONUS PROP PREDICTION: If you’re looking for a tasty flier, you could take “Yes” on the extra innings prop at +650. The current moneyline has this game as a pick ’em, and the previous two ASGs have gone into extra frames.
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OVER/UNDER BET
Last year’s All-Star Game went Over the 7-run total, thanks to a busy final three innings in which the teams combine for seven runs and forced the game into extra innings, tacking on an added four runs in those two bonus frames for an 8-6 win for the Junior Circuit.
Traditionally, the seventh, eighth and ninth innings have been relatively quiet. Before the 2018 ASG, the previous seven Mid-Summer Classics produced a total of just six runs in the final three frames, and four of those runs came in 2015.
However, measuring up past All-Star Game results doesn’t hold much water when looking at 2019. So far, this MLB season has produced the highest scoring rate (9.6 total runs per game) since 2007 (9.6) and 2006 (9.72). A good part of that uptick in production has been the explosion in power hitting, namely the home run rate.
Major League Baseball is producing 2.74 home runs per game in the first half of the 2019 schedule, which is the highest home run rate ever and on pace to break the 2018 record rate of 2.52. The next highest home run rate came in 2000 (2.34) – smack dab right in the middle of the steroid era.
Plenty of the bats responsible for those rising home run numbers are stepping into the box Tuesday night.
PREDICTION: Over 8.5 runs
SIDE BET
The American League has held a six-year stranglehold on the MLB All-Star Game since snapping a three-year winning streak by the National League in 2013. Home-field advantage has had little to do with that success, as 2019 is the first time the All-Star Game has been played in the AL park since 2014.
The Mid-Summer Classic has been a hotly contested showcase during that six-year run, with the previous two games going to extra innings and the average margin of victory in those ASGs sitting at 2.16 in favor of the AL.
The National League holds an 89-73 advantage in interleague action this season, but there are some big guns missing from the NL roster: Washington starter Max Scherzer and third baseman Anthony Rendon. The National League could also be without the massive bat of Yelich, who withdrew from the Home Run Derby due to back issues.
Six-year steak aside, the American League gets the nod in 2019.
PREDICTION: American League -110
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