Indigo999

Tom Brady got drafted in the 6th round, Purdy was the last guy picked....Caleb Williams was a number one pick who is never going to be a star.

Putting all of your eggs in the number 1 pick basket isn't a sure thing by any means.

It ruins the psyche of a franchise to deliberately lose games....the 76ers did it for three years, and nothing came of it...it isn't worth it to tank.

Plays:

1)    Packers +1', 2 units

2)                        Patriots +5', 1 unit.....................L

3)                        Steelers +3, -115, 1 unit.............L

4)   Browns +6', 1 unit

5)                        Cardinals +6', -105, 1 unit..........W

6)   Titans +1, -110, 1 unit

7)                       East Carolina +6, 1 unit...............W

8)                      UConn +3, 1 unit..........................W

9)                     Vanderbilt +3, 1 unit....................W

10)  TB Bucs -8, 1 unit

11)                    UL-Lafayette +10........................L

12)                    Colorado State +2'......................L

Love the stats on mathematically eliminated teams....good fortune today....

Plays:

1)    Packers +1', 2 units

2)    Patriots +5', 1 unit

3)                        Steelers +3, -115, 1 unit.............L

4)   Browns +6', 1 unit

5)   Cardinals +6', -105, 1 unit

6)   Titans +1, -110, 1 unit

7)   East Carolina +6, 1 unit

8)   UConn +3, 1 unit

9)                     Vanderbilt +3, 1 unit.........W

10)  TB Bucs -8, 1 unit

11)  UL-Lafayette +10

12)  Colorado State +2'

Number 12 is incorrect on my listed plays....the correct play is Colorado State +2' for one unit

Plays......adding:

12)  Miami, OH +2', 1 unit

11)  UL-Lafayette +10, 1 unit

1)    Packers +1', 2 units

2)    Patriots +5', 1 unit

3)                        Steelers +3, -115, 1 unit.............L

4)   Browns +6', 1 unit

5)   Cardinals +6', -105, 1 unit

6)   Titans +1, -110, 1 unit

7)   East Carolina +6, 1 unit

8)   UConn +3, 1 unit

9)                     Vanderbilt +3, 1 unit.........W

10)  TB Bucs -8, 1 unit

College playoff angle....

14)  A favorite of less than 7 points with less wins on the season.....1-6 ATS....VERSUS Georgia, Ohio State

15)  A December bowl favorite off a loss in a conference championship game at a neutral or home site....11-24 ATS.....VERSUS Miami, Ohio

College playoff angles.....

10)  Teams with a negative average ATS margin over their past 10 games have gone 5-8 SUATS in the college playoffs....VERSUS Texas, Georgia

11)  Teams with a +5 points/game ATS margin over their past 10 games have gone 16-11 ATS in the college playoffs.....ON AZ State, Notre Dame

12)  The team with a better average points/game offense over their past 8 games (almost every game will then be a conference game) have gone 19-10 ATS (+6.5) in the college playoffs....ON Oregon, Arizona State, Notre Dame, Penn State 

query text........game type = PO and site=neutral and tA(points, N=8)>oA(points, N=8)

13)  College playoff dogs with the better performing offense and the worse performing defense on a points/game basis have gone 7-3 as underdogs....3-7 straight up...ON Arizona State, Oregon

More college bowl game angles.  Beyond week 17 in the bowl season historically dogs cover in DECEMBER ONLY.

 9)  Teams with a negative average against the spread margin/game their last 10 games.....

  a)  beyond week 17 (now).....as favorites 66-100 ATS.....VERSUS Alabama, Nebraska, North Carolina, Missouri, TCU

  b)  beyond week 17 as dogs....116-86-2 ATS........ON LSU, Washington, East Carolina, Iowa State

Query text.....game type=BG and tS(ats margin, N=10)<0 and week>17 and D, F and month=12

c)  if our poorly performing team as a bowl favorite has won more than 1 out of their past three away games, this moves to 23-54 ATS...VERSUS TCU, North Carolina.....if their present opponent also has won more than 1 out of their past three away games, this moves the results to 8-38 ATS (-9.7), 16-29 straight up (-4.6)...VERSUS TCU, North Carolina

Query text....game type=BG and tS(ats margin, N=10)<0 and week>17 and F and month=12 and tS(W@A, N=3)>1 and oS(W@A, N=3)>1

  d)   When both teams, the favorite and the dog, have had negative ats results over their past 10 games, the bowl underdog in week>17 has been 17-2 ATS (+11.3), 13-5 straight up (+5.8)....ON East Carolina

Adding:

11) UL-Lafayette +10, 1 unit

Obviously, with the response on this thread on the, "the need to win" narrative that the media and bettors hold on to is a good thing for us.  Going against public perception is a fact of life in the normal existence of a sports bettor.

We want people to disagree with us.....and don't take it personally.  Bears  cover against a team that needed to win and the Texans don't.

Chargers need to win, Miami may need to win.  Vikings need to win.....Tampa Bay is the only team where we are taking a need-to-win team....and Carolina has covered six straight as an underdog, so we'll see what happens.   

All these guys playing the game were the studs of their youth, the ones that played pitcher or short stop, batted clean up, the guys that when you played "killed the guy with the ball", it took four other people to bring them down........they were bigger, stronger and faster than their peers.  They were also the most motivated and worked the hardest.  The difference between being excellent and being poor at this level is not that much.  Needing to win is more of a detriment than a positive in these types of games, and the other team, with similar studs of their youth to the favored team, has the capacity to hang with or win that game.

Bills and Ravens are now both better than the Chiefs this season.....will be interesting to see which one will play them in round three, and if one gets across the line this year....if there's any year where they'll do it, it has to be this year for Josh or Lamar.

Plays:

1)  Packers +1', 2 units

2)  Patriots +5', 1 unit

3)  Steelers +3, -115, 1 unit

4)  Browns +6', 1 unit

5)  Cardinals +6', -105, 1 unit

6)  Titans +1, -110, 1 unit

7)  East Carolina +6, 1 unit

8)  UConn +3, 1 unit

9)  Vanderbilt +3, 1 unit

10)  TB Bucs -8, 1 unit

8)  An NFL week 17 divisional away dog of more than 7 points, who has won less than five games, playing a team off an away favorite loss.....0-8 ATS, (-17.2), 0-8 (-28.8)

Average line +11.1, average score 9.9-38.6.......VERSUS Panthers

Plays.......adding:

10)  Bucs -8

Plays:

1)  Packers +1', 2 units

2)  Patriots +5', 1 unit

3)  Steelers +3, -115, 1 unit

4)  Browns +6', 1 unit

5)  Cardinals +6', -105, 1 unit

6)  Titans +1, -110, 1 unit

7)  East Carolina +6, 1 unit

8)  UConn +3, 1 unit

9)  Vanderbilt +3, 1 unit

Adding:

7)  East Carolina +6

8)  UConn +3

9)  Vanderbilt +3

Plays:

1)  Packers +1', 2 units

2)  Patriots +5', 1 unit

3)  Steelers +3, -115, 1 unit

4)  Browns +6', 1 unit

5)  Cardinals +6', -105, 1 unit

6)  Titans +1, -110, 1 unit

Bears CANCELLED

7)  An NFL away divisional dog of 7 or less points, with less than 8 wins on the season off an away loss in week>15.....21-4 ATS (+5.6), 16-9 straight up (+1.6)

ON Titans, Cardinals

query text.....month=12 and AD and DIV and line<=7 and p:AL  and week>15 and t:wins<8

Seahawks and Chargers and by some small miracle the Dolphins may all "need to win", while the Bears, Patriots and Browns have "nothing to play for".....it doesn't change my plays.  Actually I would probably make it a two unit play if the Dolphins by the end of the week are eliminated from a playoff spot going into their game at Cleveland.

The Vikings need to win if they want to win number 1 seed.  I doubt the Packers will be sitting guys with two weeks left.  I would wonder about the following week that a team that has wrapped up their playoff seed would rest guys,....those are the games where teams deliberately tank a game.

The Packers could, as mentioned get the 5 seed if they win out and the Vikings lose both games.  And, the 5th seed would draw the NFC South winner, a better scenario than probably playing the NFC West winner.

Regardless, if the Packers put Willis out there at qb, I am still fine with the play.

.

correct query text from thread #13.....tpS(W) < 4

and

game type = BG

and

month = 12 and

D and

week < 19

and   tA(o:points)

<

oA(o:points)

College bowl angle....

6)  Play ON a December bowl underdog that won three or less  games the previous season before week 19.....54-22 ATS (+4.6), 37-39 straight up (-2.3)....ON Louisiana Tech, East Carolina, Vandy, UConn.

If their defense allows less points/game  than their present opponent, those teams have gone 25-8 ATS (+4.1), 19-13 (-2.0) straight up ......ON Vandy, East Carolina, UConn

query text.....tpS(W) < 4 and game type = BG and month = 12 and D and week < 19 and   tA(o:points)<oA(o:points)