Indigo999

query text........AD  and line<oA(margin, N=8)+3-tA(margin, N=8) and game type=CH

25)  A conference championship round away dog who has the better per game scoring margin.....0-5 ATS (-8.3), 0-5 straight up (-10.2)....VERSUS Bills

26)  A conference championship round away dog whose calculated line using each teams' last eight games is less than the Vegas line....6-12 ATS (-5.6) 2-16 straight up (-10.7)....VERSUS Bills

27)  A conference championship round away dog whose calculated line using each teams' last eight games is greater than the Vegas line....17-11 ATS..........ON Commanders....in the last 9 games teams in this situation has won outright 6 times and lost by a field goal the other 3 times.

query text.....AD and line

Calculated lines, last 8 game scoring averages

  a)  Chiefs 20.6-17.8=+2.8

  b)  Bills 33-23.8=+9.2

  c)  Commanders 29.9-25.2=+4.7

  d)  Eagles 27.1-17=+10.1

Calculated line, giving 3 points to home team

Commanders +8.4

Bills  -3.4

The disparity of lines mimics Sagarin's power ratings....Vegas is taking a side on the Chiefs and the Commanders.

Plays:

1)  Notre Dame +9......loser

2)  Commanders +6'....2 units

CANCELLING MY BILLS BETS....lost 1/10th of a unit on the buy-out.

22)  Conference championship round away teams with the turnover advantage of at least 2 their previous game have gone 10-3 ATS (+5.8), 6-7 straight up (-0.2).....Bills, Commanders

23)  Conference championship round home teams that committed zero turnovers their previous game have gone 5-7 ATS (-1.9) and 8-4 straight up (+4.2)......Eagles, Chiefs

When two opposing teams committed zero turnovers their previous games, the home team went 3-3 ATS (-1.8), 5-1 straight up (+3.2)

24)  Championship round teams that were out-gained...

  a)  away teams....8-9 ATS, 4-13  straight up (-4.8)......Commanders

  b)  home teams ...4-4 TS, 5-3 straight up (+6.4).....Chiefs, Eagles

21)  Teams with the worse won/loss record their previous eight  games, how do they do in the conference championship round and the Super Bowl?

The short answer is, generally they have done very well....dispelling the notion that the "hot" team is the team to back.

  a)  In the conference championship round they are 25-7 ATS (+6.97)........Bills have gone 6-2 and the Chiefs have gone 7-1 their last 8 games......ON Bills

  b)  In the Super Bowl those teams with the lesser record their past eight games in comparison to their present opponent have gone 14-3 ATS (+7.03)

Both the Eagles and the Commanders have gone 7-1,.........if we take this to the last 9 games, this moves to Philly 8-1, Washington 7-2.

Query text.....tS(W, N=8) < oS(W, N=8) and playoffs=1 and game type

I was able to post that query from Comment #32 using my preferred SDQL at GTD: PO = 1 and p:PY < 150 and A and -4.2 < line < 4.2 ATS:  15-5-0 (3.1, 75.0%) Good luck everybody.[/Quote]

Yes well, you're a better man than me....I tried multiple times/ways.

The fact is, teams in this round are 18-14 straight up when a team  won the previous matchup.....16-16 ATS.

  Mahomes is the chosen one and current golden boy after Brady retired. Storyline all year has been can KC be the first team ever to 3peat. Refs will be helping KC in a close game. It’s hard to beat a team twice in the same season and the Bills win earlier this year was in Buffalo. Riding the Mahomes vs Allen trend in the playoffs 3-0. Some teams just have the other teams number. 

Are you trying to argue with me?....don't take it personally that I like the Bills....if you like the Chiefs, all well and good, they obviously have been doing quite a bit right the past few years.....they could very easily win this game in Arrowwood.

When you say "it's hard to beat a team twice in a season" what facts do you have to back that up?

The fact is, teams in this round are 18-14 straight up when a team  won the previous matchup.....16-16 ATS straight up.

I suppose because you know when the league wants one team to win you'd own your own tropical island and a few mansions, equivalent to Biff having his own personal  sports almanac.

20)  An away dog in the conference championship round whose present opponent won more than 14 games last season.....5-1 ATS (+5.2), 2-4 SU (-1.3).......Bills

19)  Both home teams in this round have won their past three home games.....if their opponent has:

  a)  won their last three away games, the away team has been 6-10 ATS (-2.2), 5-11 SU (-7.3), 11-5 o/u (+4.3)......Commanders

  b)  won less than their three away games, the away team has been 7-1 ATS (+6.5), 3-5 SU (+1.5) .......................Bills

Thanks for sharing MsKeets.....we'll take it as a positive sign for my Bills play if a Chiefs fan is on the Bills, even if it is just a teaser......

As far as the Eagles go, their qb is damaged goods now, and it has been my observation that running quarterbacks' performance at home is nothing to write home about......Murray (AZ), Jackson, Hurts, Daniels, etc.,...........it is on the road that they perform exceptionally well from a bettor's standpoint.

In general it is more important that the road team rushes well than the home team.

18)  A playoff away dog that passed for less than 150 yards the previous game.....29-17 ATS (+1.9), 19-27 straight up (-2.9).....if instead the line is between -4 and +4 this moves to 15-4 ATS (+3.4), 12-7 straight up (+2.4).......Bills

query text.......playoffs=1 and p:passing yards<150

and A

and

-4<line<4

Well, we'll see Ballin'.....as mentioned there's a dude on this site that just hit 60% on over 400 plays going against the trend.

Away divisional dogs in the playoffs....

a)  wildcard round 14-10 ATS.....7-17 straight up (-6.75)

b)  divisional round 5-3 ATS (+2.5), 4-4 straight up (-3.62)

c)  conference finals 1-2 ATS (-1.5) 0-3 straight up (-6.0)

Divisional away dogs after winning last divisional matchup and losing the one before that.

d)  wildcard round ....2-2 ATS (+4.25), 2-2 straight up (-2.25) 

e)  divisional round...2-0 ATS (+8.25), 1-1 straight up (+2.5)

f)  conference championship ....0-1 ATS (-2), 0-1 straight up (-6)

I remember those games...after the first one where they should've won versus the Giants, the Bills never came close after that....similar to my Vikings, both teams just got steamrollered every time they made it.

Here are some NCAA football angles.......

16)  Take the a team in the NCAA playoffs when both involved teams have played at least one playoff game,...our team has the less strong average line for the season-to-date compared to their present opponent.....8-4 ATS (+1.2)....6-6 (-3.1).....Notre Dame's average line this season has been -11.6 and Ohio State's has been -20.

17)  Take the team in the NCAA football playoffs that has the better average covering margin season-to-date after each team has played at least one playoff game.....9- 3 ATS (+6.3), 9-3 straight up (+6.8).....Notre Dame's average covering margin this season was +9.8/game and Ohio State's was +2.3/game

game type=PO and p:game type=PO and op:game type=PO and tA(ats margin)>oA(ats margin)

Plays:

1)  Bills +1'.....1.5 units

2)  Bills moneyline......1/2 unit

3)  Notre Dame +9.....1 unit

that is interesting about what you say about tracking line movements...that is an art and science unto itself.

Another way, perhaps similar, is to look at power ratings, either Massey or Sagarin and come up with a line and for the NFL, going anti-value.

It worked well this past weekend.

For the coming week, we'll look at Sagarin's predictor ratings for the NFL, and then giving 3 points to the home team

Washington.......23.27                                          Buffalo 28.24

Philly................27.92........-7.65                          KC       22.89 .......+2.35 

The plays would be Washington and the Chiefs as we would say that Vegas knows more than a computer.....they would have their own accurate power ratings and the fact that there is a disparity between the public line and what some computer nerd has put out, we side with Vegas, after all they own multi-million dollars castles and we don't.....

I totally agree that someone with this methodology would help an NFL team to alert a coaching staff to possible poor performance coming into a game.

As far as fading trends, I think there is a good rationale for that....Jowchoo on this forum had a massive year this year, probably the best of anyone on this site.  As far as I could tell, his methodology was to find a team that had four or more performances above or below 500 and then to fade that trend in a teaser. 

For example if the Raiders were 0-4 to the OVER in the year to date, he would play them OVER their next game in a teaser, the rationale being that everything reverts back to the mean.  

It's hard to argue with his results, as he hit over 60% on over 400 plays and I do find it interesting that of all the cappers that I have seen on this forum, he is the only one that has detailed his approach, which is systematic in nature, and he is also been one of the best cappers here....I don't think that is a coincidence, as the universe gives back to those that give.

I did this once in a very simplistic manner many years ago in baseball....I would look at home favorites or left handed pitchers, etc....and when they had won or lost three days in a row I would go the opposite...the bookmaker I had at the time said he'd never seen someone who had been as successful as I was over that season.

I will definitely look at emulating Jowchoo's methods next season in the NFL.

One weighs up the information and then decides what is most relevant....even for me, who is 80% data driven I will use some right brain to make a final determination.

I knew going into this weekend's games that I would fade the Chiefs if they won regardless of who won in Buffalo.  The biggest factor in making my pick is that both Baltimore and Buffalo have been on the doorstep and this season's version of the Chiefs and Mahomes are much worse than the previous versions.  It is my belief that both the Ravens and Bills are at least as good or better than they've been in recent years.  Even when the Chiefs were rocking, it took a pretty big series of events for the Chiefs to steal a conference final versus the Bills a couple of years ago in the last 15 seconds.

Is there  conflicting data?....yeah, a ton of it in both games.....this week of all the weeks is the most difficult in the playoffs.  I don't have a weighting system for angles or anything like that if that is what you're curious about.  I have done well in the playoffs and if this bet loses I will still have been a successful post-season. 

I am not into talking people into plays or critiquing someone's methodology, cough, cough....but, I've always wanted for a successful capper to take someone through the A-Z of his thinking process, rather than "yeah, I really like the matchup in this game." or "the Packers are really gonna be fired up for this game.", etc, or even more common here, to list their plays with no explanation at all.

No one goes into a rationale, perhaps  because I suppose if you lose you look foolish...it's a pity.

The Super Bowl is often much easier to pick....I like the Bills to win it and will almost certainly be on them if they win this coming weekend.

15)  Teams off playing the Lions the last two seasons have gone 11-22-1 ATS (-4.5) 14-20 straight up (-2.8).  Away dogs after playing the Lions the past two years.....1-5-1 ATS (-6.4), 1-6 straight up (-11.4)

16)  Home favorites after playing the Rams the past two seasons 9-2 ATS (+5.2), 10-1 straight up (+12.6)

[Quote: Originally Posted by JoseAlonso787]You can have all the trends in the world and it still won’t make sense rationalizing it as a means of capping the game that’s about to occur. Best of luck betting against the Chiefs[/Quote

LOL!

Everyone's perception is different...that is what makes a sports betting  market, or any other market for that matter......thanks for talking sense to me.