Indigo999

9)  In the NFL, away favorites week 16 that are playing on Sunday whose next game is on Sunday have gone 39-63-5 ATS (-3.2), including 19-34 ATS in non-divisional games.....VERSUS Eagles, Vikings, Bucs

10)  NFL home teams playing a night game after week 15 have gone 34-46 ATS.....VERSUS Packers, Cowboys

Plays:

1)  Colts -3'.....this play and the Dolphins play are predicated on teams that were in very good situations last week that didn't cover, and by the same token those teams that should have lost that won are often play-againsts the following game, as we saw with the Broncos meltdown last night.  Anyone that saw that Colts/Broncos game last week knew it took some extreme circumstances for Denver to cover against the Colts (as it did when they played the Browns), including a running back inexplicably  dropping the ball before  he actually scored a touchdown, which also happened in a previous game in the exact same manner (NYG).  The Broncos in that game had 190 total yards, were outgained by 110+ yards and scored over 30 points.....they were overdue to get beat.

We've never seen so many players brain-farting on the field as we have this season, as well as guys writhing around in pain....seems like a guy  getting injured  happens 10 times a game now, many whom are back in the game the next series.  Are we as a human race just getting softer, or what?,,,,and we are seeing it in baseball too, which is about as easy a game on the body as there is in professional sports (except for pitchers), yet guys like Byron Buxton gets hurt for 50+ games every season.

I had a strong historical query on the Dolphins and the Colts last week.....we go to the well again this week on them, with trepidation.

2)  Dolphins pk, -115

3)  Seahawks +3

4)  Notre Dame -7

5)  SMU +8'.....last year's bowl game in very cold weather for the Mustangs does come to mind where they had a horrible game....we'll expect they learned from that game what not to do.

6)  Clemson +12

I would like to play against the Buckeyes, but don't feel the Vols' quarterback is good enough to get the job done.....we'll look to fade the Buckeye/Vols winner, whoever gets through the next game......we'd love to have one side thrash the other, setting up a play-against next week.

If you subscribe to the theory that history repeats itself all well and good you might like the data below....if you don't this thread will have no relevance to you.

I am hitting a solid 48% this year in the KOC contest, though the games I am actually betting are doing slightly better than that....it's been a tough season.

1)  Games in December are littered with non-regular game days in comparison to the rest of the season.

Home favorites on:

  a)  Saturday............................48-62  ATS, 20-27 ATS in divisional matchups.....week 16....VERSUS Chiefs, Ravens.....week 17....VERSUS Rams, Bengals

  b)  Friday................................1-2 ATS

  c)  Wednesday........................0-1 ATS

2)  Home dogs, after being pathetic most of 2024 have historically been good after week 15....120-87 ATS (58%) going back to 20+ years, covering by an average of +2.2 points/game.

week 16................... ON Bears, Jets, Commanders, Panthers, Seahawks, Cowboys, .....week 17....ON Giants, Browns

3)  Favorites with a net 30 yards/game rushing advantage  have gone 96-119 ATS in week 16 (44.7%)....

AGAINST Packers, Ravens, Falcons, Lions, Eagles, Cardinals, Vikings, Bucs

4)  Week 16 AWAY teams with a net 50 total yards/game advantage over their present opponents have gone only 53-67 ATS.......AGAINST Cardinals, Lions, Titans, 49ers, Bucs

5)  Week 16 home favorites with the turnover margin DISADVANTAGE of -.5/game have gone 18-34 ATS.....VERSUS Chiefs, Ravens

6)  Week 16 home dogs with  with the turnover margin DISADVANTAGE of -.5/game have gone 48-34 ATS...ON Seahawks

Synopsis:  In past seasons week 16 and beyond we have seen heavy regression on what has transpired for the season-to-date.....will it happen this year?....we'll see.

BUT WAIT....THERE'S MORE!

We have no exact data on the college football playoffs with teams this week having games on their home field in the playoffs.

However, non-regular season favored teams in bowls and conference championships off a loss have been very bad in December,

7)  Neutral site college  favorites in December off a loss....19-30-1 ATS.....Miami, OH

8)  Non-regular season college home favorites off a loss in December.............0-2 ATS.......Ohio State, Penn State, Texas....obviously the amount of data is very, very small

"Tnanks for sharing this on four posts."

I hit submit one time, so it was a covers' thing, not my thing.....

I think the Packers will be the best team come playoff time in the NFC, but highly doubt they can win three road playoff games.....I will be on them every game in the playoffs as they would be getting points at Minnesota, Philly and Detroit.

In the AFC, the Ravens and the Bills are both better than the Chiefs this year, but then we have the "Playoff Lamar" syndrome to contend with.  If the Bills don't beat the Chiefs this year, they never will.

Teams off a loss as a favorite to a non-divisional foe, now playing on Thursday as a home divisional favorite have gone 10-3 ATS, 13-0 straight up, winning by an average of 13.8 points a game and covering by 7 points per game on average.

Query text.....p:FL and HF and po:division != o:division and division = o:division and day = Thursday

Interestingly, all other days besides Thursdays have produced poor results.

Teams off a loss as a favorite to a non-divisional foe, now playing on Thursday as a home divisional favorite have gone 10-3 ATS, 13-0 straight up, winning by an average of 13.8 points a game and covering by 7 points per game on average.

Query text.....p:FL and HF and po:division != o:division and division = o:division and day = Thursday

Interestingly, all other days besides Thursdays have produced poor results.

Teams off a loss as a favorite to a non-divisional foe, now playing on Thursday as a home divisional favorite have gone 10-3 ATS, 13-0 straight up, winning by an average of 13.8 points a game and covering by 7 points per game on average.

Query text.....p:FL and HF and po:division != o:division and division = o:division and day = Thursday

Interestingly, all other days besides Thursdays have produced poor results.

Teams off a loss as a favorite to a non-divisional foe, now playing on Thursday as a home divisional favorite have gone 10-3 ATS, 13-0 straight up, winning by an average of 13.8 points a game and covering by 7 points per game on average.

Query text.....p:FL and HF and po:division != o:division and division = o:division and day = Thursday

Interestingly, all other days besides Thursdays have produced poor results.

I took the Sun Devils at 40/1....they could be 10/1 if they were to win their first game,  as a dog in the quarterfinals....and I'd have an opportunity to hedge.

With their running attack I would play them against the Ducks in the semis if the Ducks and Devils won their first games.

If the players are now getting paid,......you take away their pay if they do something crass and ignorant or suspend them one game like the targeting foul, and you suspend the coaches if they participate...if it happens a second time within a two year period, the head coach gets suspended as well.  

You make sure you are taking video of what transpires.

The problem is no longer a problem.

They used to have bench clearing brawls in the NBA....took an NBA playoff game where about 4 guys left the bench for a fight (the Knicks I think it was versus the Heat), they got suspended, and the problem has  not continued.

And, he missed a wide open bomb in the first half....14 points they should've had, including an interception in the end zone,...and 14 points he gave away on pick 6s......I've never seen a guy give 28 points away to the other team.....EVER.

1)  AD and t:wins = 3 and week = 12 and DIV and tS(W@A, N=3)<2 and o:wins<7

16-5 ATS....ON Patriots

2)  Ravens since 2019 have been 29-15 ATS with Jackson quarterbacking them on the road, 17-7 ATS on the road with a line between -4 and +4, 19-10-1 ATS on the road (25-5 ATS in six point teasers) versus non-divisional opponents, including 4-0-1 ATS, 5-0 straight up if they are on the road off a loss versus a non-divisional opponent.

A few angles.....

1). AD and tA(total yards-o:total yards)-oA(total yards-o:total yards) <-30 and 16>week>10 and p:DL and week=11 and o:wins<8 and rest<13

2). rest>11 and A and p:L and not DIV and tA(total yards-o:total yards)<-30 and o:rest<9 and -2

3)  AD and line < oA(margin, N=6) + 2.5 - tA(margin, N=6) and month = 11 and rest >6 and p:DL and week>10 and tS(W, N=3)=0

4)  month = 11 and AD and n:F and day = Sunday and on:D and not division = o:division and line <= 6 and tA(passing yards-o:passing yards) - oA(passing yards-o:passing yards) > 0 and t:wins >= 4 and tS(W@A, N=3) > 1 and oS(W@H, N=3)>1  

5)  HF and o:streak < -2 and month = 11 and day = Sunday and not division = o:division and tA(total yards-o:total yards) - oA(total yards-o:total yards) > 30 and op:DL and week=11 and p:AL

week = 12 and tA(rushing yards-o:rushing yards) - oA(rushing yards-o:rushing yards) > 50 and AD and line < 11 and C and t:wins < 8 and o:wins!=5

Plays:

1)  NCAA  Cincinnati  +4...1 unit              39%

[Quote: Originally Posted by anNFLfan]@Indigo999 Do you know if KillerSports is no longer a free access ?

Kind of inevitable...we've had it very good for a very long time.  I don't begrudge them that they will be charging money for a service they provide, no different than paying a plummer to sort out your waterworks.

Angle #13.....Play AGAINST those teams that CBS experts have chosen when 7 or 8 of them out of 8 have the same team in the NFL.....15-5 ATS going against them this season so far.  This week 7 or 8 (out of 8 experts)  have chosen the Steelers, Broncos, Lions, Bengals, Texans, Packers.

We then would fade those teams  and play ON......NYG, Panthers, Titans, Eagles, Colts, Jaguars.

Big Ten  road teams in conference games this season are 18-17 ATS, but 5-11 ATS when traveling across 2 or more time zones.

John Breech at CBS Sports discusses a couple of angles that points towards the Rams covering as quoted below

"On paper, the Vikings are definitely the better team in this game, but no one uses paper anymore, so that fact means nothing to me. 

I only care about trends, and there are two trends telling me to pick the Rams to win this game. First, teams flying two time zones or more to the west for a Thursday game almost always lose. Since the return of "Thursday Night Football" in 2006, this has happened a total of 20 times and the Central/Eastern time zone team that flew west has gone 4-16 straight up and 4-14-2 ATS (And two of those four wins were by Aaron Rodgers while he was going through his MVP run with the Packers).

Not only is it tough to turn around and play on a Thursday, but the Vikings have to do it after playing the Lions, which brings me to my second trend. No team has won a game this year the week after playing the Lions. Apparently, the Lions are beating up on teams so badly that it makes it impossible to win the following week. It doesn't matter whether a team wins or loses to the Lions, this trend only involves their next game after facing Detroit." 

The first angle I've researched and before Thanksgiving games on Thursday,...Pacific time zone home dogs since 2005 on Thursday versus teams from the Central or  Eastern time zone before week 11 have gone 1-2 SUATS....so nothing there. 

Half of what you read online is blatantly false when it comes to betting.

Below is the query text one can plug into the query box at gimmethedog.com for validation.

time zone=P and day=Thursday and week<11 and season>2005 and o:time zone and HD

The angle he discusses about teams performing after playing Detroit is legitimate...they have performed poorly the last couple of seasons the game after playing the Lions.

John Breech, by the way is 46-58-3 this season against the spread as shown on "Experts Picks" on cbssports.com