Indigo999

Plays:

1)  NCAA  Cincinnati  +4...1 unit              39%

[Quote: Originally Posted by anNFLfan]@Indigo999 Do you know if KillerSports is no longer a free access ?

Kind of inevitable...we've had it very good for a very long time.  I don't begrudge them that they will be charging money for a service they provide, no different than paying a plummer to sort out your waterworks.

Angle #13.....Play AGAINST those teams that CBS experts have chosen when 7 or 8 of them out of 8 have the same team in the NFL.....15-5 ATS going against them this season so far.  This week 7 or 8 (out of 8 experts)  have chosen the Steelers, Broncos, Lions, Bengals, Texans, Packers.

We then would fade those teams  and play ON......NYG, Panthers, Titans, Eagles, Colts, Jaguars.

Big Ten  road teams in conference games this season are 18-17 ATS, but 5-11 ATS when traveling across 2 or more time zones.

John Breech at CBS Sports discusses a couple of angles that points towards the Rams covering as quoted below

"On paper, the Vikings are definitely the better team in this game, but no one uses paper anymore, so that fact means nothing to me. 

I only care about trends, and there are two trends telling me to pick the Rams to win this game. First, teams flying two time zones or more to the west for a Thursday game almost always lose. Since the return of "Thursday Night Football" in 2006, this has happened a total of 20 times and the Central/Eastern time zone team that flew west has gone 4-16 straight up and 4-14-2 ATS (And two of those four wins were by Aaron Rodgers while he was going through his MVP run with the Packers).

Not only is it tough to turn around and play on a Thursday, but the Vikings have to do it after playing the Lions, which brings me to my second trend. No team has won a game this year the week after playing the Lions. Apparently, the Lions are beating up on teams so badly that it makes it impossible to win the following week. It doesn't matter whether a team wins or loses to the Lions, this trend only involves their next game after facing Detroit." 

The first angle I've researched and before Thanksgiving games on Thursday,...Pacific time zone home dogs since 2005 on Thursday versus teams from the Central or  Eastern time zone before week 11 have gone 1-2 SUATS....so nothing there. 

Half of what you read online is blatantly false when it comes to betting.

Below is the query text one can plug into the query box at gimmethedog.com for validation.

time zone=P and day=Thursday and week<11 and season>2005 and o:time zone and HD

The angle he discusses about teams performing after playing Detroit is legitimate...they have performed poorly the last couple of seasons the game after playing the Lions.

John Breech, by the way is 46-58-3 this season against the spread as shown on "Experts Picks" on cbssports.com

Plays:                                         public consensus King of Covers contest

1)  NCAA  Cincinnati  +4...1 unit              39%

Angle #12

  a) Play on an NCAA away dog of less than 14 points

  b) playing at least their third road game

  c)  not on a three game losing streak

  d)  in week 9

  e)  sitting on four wins on the season

  f) who is playing a team that has won 2 or 3 out of their past three home games

32-6-1 ATS (+11.7), 27-12 straight up (+4.5)......ON Buffalo (NCAA), Michigan State....both Michigan State and Buffalo have gone 1-2 in their last three road games, and those teams in that situation have gone 19-3-1 ATS (+12.8)

week = 9 and line < 14 and division = FBS and AD and oS(W@H, N=3) > 1 and AD and streak > -3 and t:wins = 4 and tS(W, N=3) < 3 and tS(W@A, N=3)>=0

Plays: 

15)  Michigan State +4.....1 unit              42%        

1)  NCAA  Cincinnati  +4...1 unit              39%

Strong leans on;

  a)  Redblacks minus the points

  b)  Montreal/Winnipeg UNDER

but if I play them they won't be listed here.....

Plays:

9)  Panthers +8....1.5 units....cancelled....cannot play on a team quarterbacked by Bryce Young

Angle #11....In NCAA football in week 9, an away dog of less than 14 points with at least a 30 yards per game net total yards advantage (offensive yards gained minus defensive yards allowed) that has lost at least one out of their past three games has gone 43-28 ATS (+2.4), 37-36 straight up (-2.6)....this becomes 38-24 ATS if we eliminate those teams that have won their last two road games.....ON Auburn, Georgia Tech, Central Michigan, Michigan State, Missouri

query text.........tA(total yards-o:total yards) - oA(total yards-o:total yards) > 30 and line < 14 and tS(W, N=3)<3.0 and week = 9 and AD and tS(W@A, N=2)

Adding....

                Plays:                   KOC contest consensus percentage

15)  Michigan State +4.....1 unit              42%        

1)  NCAA  Cincinnati  +4...1 unit              39%

Have had the best season ever in the CFL....faded the Lions almost every game the last part of the season and was on Hamilton almost every game last part as well.

"I have been seeing the field" as they say in sports

"Better to be lucky than good" is never more apropos than when betting the NFL.....

Should be a very good week in the NFL this coming week.

Moved back to Oz a couple of months ago, and am strongly considering a move to Thailand or PI when the new year eventuates.

Angle #10....Play on an NFL away dog of >+6 points from weeks 2-13 if their next week line is greater than 3 points stronger than their present opponent's next week line.....96-37-2 (+5.9) ATS.....ON Titans, Panthers

The Panthers will be around +3.5 point dogs to the Saints (doubtful they'll be that high of a dog unless Carr returns for the Saints) and the Broncos will be around 9 point underdogs to the Ravens.

The Lions will be approximately +1 to the Packers and the Titans will be 3 point favorites to the Patriots.

query text........AD and line > 6 and n:line-on:line<-3 and not division = o:division and 13>week>2

If we lower the requirement from -3 to 0 difference in the future lines this remains a historical very high percentage play......132-52-3 ATS, 71.9%

AD and line > 6 and n:line-on:line<0 and not division = o:division and 13>week>2

I added the units wrong in the last post (should be 174 instead of 175)....the correct ROI is 37.85% for the moneyline calculation,..........my 9th grade math teacher would be cross with me and ask.....

"How could you be so careless??!!"

......lol..

"Sorry Teach!!"

Angle #9....Play on an NFL away dog before week 11, who has lost at least their last three games and has had an average of greater than  1 more turnover per game  on offense than their defense  has created in those three games.....110-60-5 ATS (+3.0)......ON Panthers this week (at Denver), and ON Raiders next week (at Bengals). 

This moves to 11-0 ATS (+9.1) in week 8 when those teams are away non-divisional dogs.

How does the ROI compare?....moneyline betting versus pointspread betting?....better or worse??

If we are spread betting that gives us an ROI of around 23.5%.....IF we are moneyline betting the record of those teams straight up has been 55-119 (-4.9).  The average moneyline has been +336.1.  

Doing the calculation.......55 (wins) multiplying by 3.361 = 184.855 units won......we then subtract 119 (units lost) from our units won to get 65 units won.

We take the total units won (65) and divide by total units risked (55+119=175) to get a return on investment of 37.14%....versus the 23.5% ROI betting the pointspread.

ALMOST ALWAYS the higher return when betting underdogs is to take the moneyline, as much as 100% greater the return.

Difficult because you are collecting the cash 31% of the time when on the moneyline and collecting 64.7% of the time betting the pointspread.

Query text.........week<11 and tA(TOM, N=3) > 1 and AD and tS(W, N=3) = 0.0 

I don't think it will get you the money....turnovers for example...those with the average turnover advantage over their opponent cover about 47.3% of the time at an average of half a turnover a game.....with an average turnover advantage of over 1 per game it becomes 46.4%,....which means in essence if you take the the much worse team in turnover margin going into the game, you'll cover 53.6% of the time.

If you delete from considering playing away dogs  you'll cover 55.5% of the time.

Query text.......tA(TOM)-oA(TOM)>1 and week>6 and playoffs=0 and AD, AF, HF, HD 

This is the query text you're looking for, for totals....p:ou margin<0 and pp:ou margin<0... denotes a team has gone UNDER their two previous games.

Or, you could do............ou streak<-3.......which means a team has gone UNDER at least four games in a row, or......ou streak>2 which means a team has gone OVER at least 3 games in a row.

Sure, I love it....hope to produce some winners that others can benefit from.

Angle #8)  Keep in mind that away dogs that outrush in  yards their opponent cover 77% of the time, covering by 8.7 points per game on average.

Those that outrush attempt their opponent cover 72.8% of the time.  

However, those away dogs that come into the game with the superior average per game rushing attack cover 52.6% of the time, so predicting who will outrush their opponent is about as unpredictable as who will cover the game.

Plays:

1)  NCAA  Cincinnati  +4...1 unit

Adding:

14)  Falcons -2', -115.....1.5 units

13)  Cowboys +4'.............1.5 units

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