jowchoo

Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:

Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo: season=2024 and AD and week>16 and 51>total>41.5 and day=Sunday  (8-2) Here is an 80% trend to the over with  games this weekend in play.   These games avg 54 pts scored, so a teaser to the under should have potential 1. KC over 41/ PHIL over 41 -119 (2%) 2. KC over 47.5 (1%) 3. PHIL over 47.5 (1%)

Quote Originally Posted by rosswin97:

from a competitive standpoint perhaps, but I think there is some intrigue in wondering if the prodigy daniels could topple mahomes. with almost all of chiefs games being one score affairs and a carefree nothing to lose dc squad who just took down the mighty lions on the road I think there could be something there the thwarting of the three peat

Quote Originally Posted by Buffalobob89074:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-conference-championship-betting-trends-stats-notes-action-network-betting-preview

Quote Originally Posted by hoody:

Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo: season=2024 and AD and week>16 and 51>total>41.5 and day=Sunday  (8-2) Here is an 80% trend to the over with  games this weekend in play. Thing with this is most of it is week 17&18 This would be half my teaser  SU: 1-5                                               ATS: 3-3                                            OU: 6-0 season=2024 and AD and DIV and week>16 and 51>total>41.5 and day=Sunday  (6-0) So if this is half my teaser drop the line  to 41.5 and play the OV and it;s 14.9-100% this year so I still need another half, note the  1-5 SU says the Eagles win and the game goes OV Now I play around with Jowchoo"s on yours you can play A,D,F,H and get 10-3 season=2024 and D and week>16 and 51>total>41.5 and day=Sunday SU: 11-2     6.9- 76.9%  Note this is as D so the S/U Was-Buf                                                                                                          ATS:7-6                                                                                                           OU:10-3 I like this teaser Jowchoo

Quote Originally Posted by doogie43:

@jowchoo  Thanks jowchoo!!

Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:

season=2024 and AD and week>16 and 51>total>41.5 and day=Sunday  (8-2) Here is an 80% trend to the over with  games this weekend in play.

Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy_Cats:

Quote Originally Posted by Chetmee:   yeah, he's the all time GOAT, with a few big yatchs, some millionaire bhind the keyboard...lol What is a yatch?

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999: I totally agree that someone with this methodology would help an NFL team to alert a coaching staff to possible poor performance coming into a game. As far as fading trends, I think there is a good rationale for that....Jowchoo on this forum had a massive year this year, probably the best of anyone on this site.  As far as I could tell, his methodology was to find a team that had four or more performances above or below 500 and then to fade that trend in a teaser.  For example if the Raiders were 0-4 to the OVER in the year to date, he would play them OVER their next game in a teaser, the rationale being that everything reverts back to the mean.   It's hard to argue with his results, as he hit over 60% on over 400 plays and I do find it interesting that of all the cappers that I have seen on this forum, he is the only one that has detailed his approach, which is systematic in nature, and he is also been one of the best cappers here....I don't think that is a coincidence, as the universe gives back to those that give. I did this once in a very simplistic manner many years ago in baseball....I would look at home favorites or left handed pitchers, etc....and when they had won or lost three days in a row I would go the opposite...the bookmaker I had at the time said he'd never seen someone who had been as successful as I was over that season. I will definitely look at emulating Jowchoo's methods next season in the NFL. It is interesting that coaches are now well aware of phenomena like let down spots and trap games (I hear them talk about it in interviews) and try to anticipate and prevent it for their team, but those are so obvious compared to the level of influence that hidden historical trends, like those you find, have on the outcome of a game. That’s whole other level of performance related data and predictors.  I believe I have seen Jowchoo’s thread but I did not know what his methodology was until you explained it. One method I’ve been using is watching line movements and comparing the ones between a sharp book and a square book: the difference is sometimes night and day. For instance, I got worried about my Detroit pick last night when the line at the sharp book dropped to -7.5 -110 before the game and it was still at -8.5 -115 at DraftKings. Meanwhile the ML fell to -490 while it was still -550 at DraftKings. When Detroit took a 7 point lead, the line at the sharp book hardly budged while the line at DraftKings went up, making Detroit a bigger favorite.

Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:

I didnt read who is on what so if this is counter productive please omit it.

Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:

playoffs = 1 and AD and rest<7 and o:rest > 5 and line<8 and p:points<39 and p:site = home and t:wins<15 and opo:points<32 and 15>PRSW>2

Quote Originally Posted by gotime:

I think you all know what I am saying.

Quote Originally Posted by hoody:

playoffs>=1 and H and F and o:playoffs>=1 and line<=6 and surface=grass and po:F and day=Saturday

Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Pursuing this further.....   6)  Away teams in the divisional round who have won their last three away games, AND have the better average against the spread performance their past six games in comparison to their opponent's last six games have gone 16-6 ATS, including 13-2 ATS (+8.27), 11-4 straight up (+3.2) on Sunday.....Eagles, Ravens Query text.....game type=DR and playoffs=1 and tA(ats margin, N=6)>oA(ats margin, N=6) and A and tS(W@ A, N=3)=3 and day=Sunday   7)  In the exact same scenario above when also the road team has ALSO has won their past three road games, the road team has gone 7-0 ATS, covering by almost 9 points/game......ON Commanders   Plays: 1)  Chiefs -8' 2)  Commanders +9 3)  Rams +6

Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

1)  There are four teams still alive that have won their last three road games....how have they done in this round?   a)  As Home Favorites....9-23 ATS, 6-11 ATS as home favorites of more than 7 points......Lions   b)  As Away dogs..........18-8 ATS......Rams, Commanders.....13-3 ATS on Sunday, 7-1 ATS as away dogs greater than 7 points....Commanders   c)  As Away favorites.....1-1 ATS.......Ravens   d) When "a" and "b" are combined in that both teams have won their last three road games the away dog has gone 8-1 ATS, including 7-0 ATS (+8.9), 3-4 straight up (+0.4) if the line is +4 or greater.   2)  Andy Reid has gone 10-4 ATS (+4.7), 14-0 SU (+13.5), 3-11 O/U (-3.9) as a home favorite of greater than 6 points with more than 9 days rest.

Quote Originally Posted by ParlayPurd:

I have bet a ton of these this year but never really broke them down like this until I noticed something weird.  So I was going through the Chiefs Receiving Yards props and added the total of all the available players on DK.  The total yardage of all the WRs, TEs, and RBs together is 211 yards.  Mahomes total passing yards prop is O/U 250 yards.  So you got 39 yards of value if you bet the under? Or what would you consider the 39 yards? Also is this pretty typical with yardage not matching up???? Cheers everyone

Quote Originally Posted by Riderx:

Okay, using the ol' d'b at killersports, home teams in the playoffs with 0 home losses:  playoffs=1 and tS(HL)=0 and H 20-14 s/u 14-20 ats 17-17 o/u this includes WC & CC games too. I would seriously advise people to start learning sdql to help your capping...