Stampeders vs Alouettes Prediction, Picks, & Odds for Week 5

The undefeated Montreal Alouettes host the Calgary Stampeders in CFL action on Saturday night.

The defending Grey Cup champions have been dominant, and my Stampeders vs. Alouettes predictions expect them to keep rolling in Week 5. 

Here are my CFL picks for Saturday, July 6.

Stampeders vs Alouettes prediction

My best bet
Alouettes -4.5 first half (-105 at bet365)

My analysis

There has been incredible parity around the CFL this season, with the majority of games being decided by less than a touchdown.

However, the Montreal Alouettes have been an exception to that, with three of their four wins coming by double-digits. This is an Alouettes team that won the Grey Cup last year and have proved it wasn't a fluke by surging to the top of the power ratings after four weeks.

Their offensive line is the best in the league and has helped turn quarterback Cody Fajardo into an MOP candidate. Fajardo has completed a CFL-high 75.4% of his passes for 1,200 yards, while also leading the league in pass efficiency rating (115.9). On the other side of the ball, the Als have been playing lockdown defense, limiting opponents to a league-low 5.72 yards per play.

Although Calgary Stampeders QB Jake Maier looked sharp in the first two weeks of the season that was against poor Hamilton and BC defenses, and he averaged just 5.6 yards per attempt last week. The Stamps' pivot struggled with his accuracy and decision-making last year, so expect major regression against an Als' defense that leads the league in sacks (10), takeaways (12), and opponent passer rating (77.5).

I'm a little concerned about a backdoor cover by the Stamps considering the Als allowed 14 points in the second half against the Argos last Friday and surrendered 20 second-half points to Ottawa in Week 3. However, Montreal has been getting off to fast starts, covering the first-half spread in all four of their games this year.

Stampeders vs Alouettes same-game parlay (SGP)

Alouettes first half -5.5

Caleb Evans anytime touchdown

Reggie Begelton Under 50.5 receiving yards

+372 at FanDuel

As Montreal's short-yardage QB, Caleb Evans will be punching the ball in for plenty of scores this year. 

Evans rushed for 16 touchdowns with Ottawa's anemic offense in 2022 and scored eight touchdowns for the Als last year. He's also picked up a TD in three of four games this year, and it helps that Calgary's run defense has been terrible thus far. 

Reggie Begelton came into this year as Calgary's No. 1 wideout but he has struggled to get separation deep. He's averaging just 9.0 yards per reception and his longest catch went for a modest 18 yards.

Begelton hasn't eclipsed 50.5 receiving yards in any game this season, and last week he was limited to 50 yards despite hauling in a season-high seven catches on a whopping 14 targets. With the Als' defense preventing deep plays, expect him to settle for short catches. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Stampeders vs Alouettes odds

Stampeders vs Alouettes live odds

Stampeders vs Alouettes opening odds

• Spread: Calgary +9.5 (-110) | Montreal -9.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Calgary +350 | Montreal -450
• Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-110) | Under 50.5 (-110)

Stampeders vs Alouettes spread and Over/Under analysis

• The line was steady at Alouettes -9.5 for most of the week, but late money came in on the Stamps slimming that number to 8.
• The Als are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread this season and have gone 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games.
• The Stamps are 2-1 SU and ATS and are coming off a 22-19 upset win at home against the Blue Bombers.
• Montreal leads the league with 12 big plays (five more than second-place BC), but Calgary is tied with the Als for the fewest big plays allowed (3).

Stampeders vs Alouettes trend

Calgary is 3-13 ATS in the previous 16 meetings between these two teams, and is 0-7 ATS in their last seven trips to Montreal. Find more CFL betting trends for Stampeders vs. Alouettes.

Stampeders vs Alouettes game info

Stampeders vs Alouettes key injuries

Stampeders: Demerio Houston DB (Out), Dedrick Mills RB (Questionable), Malik Henry WR (Out).
Alouettes: Wes Sutton DB (Out), Tyrell Richards OLB (Out), Reggie Stubblefield DB (Out), Tyler Snead WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.

Stampeders vs Alouettes weather

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