Week 5 in the CFL wraps up on Sunday with a clash between the BC Lions and Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
Hamilton is still searching for its first win of the season, and while I'm not sure if they'll get it, my Lions vs. Tiger-Cats predictions are betting on Bo Levi Mitchell & Co. to put up plenty of points.
Here are my CFL picks for this July 7 showdown.
Lions vs Tiger-Cats prediction
My best bet
Over 53.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
With CFL MOP odds favorite Vernon Adams Jr. at the helm, the BC Lions offense leads the league in net offense (408.3), yards per play (7.26), and first downs (91). Meanwhile, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats rank second in all of those categories, piling up 390.5 yards per game, 6.82 yards per play, and 86 first downs.
Both of these offenses also have the potential to score significantly more points than they have so far. The Ticats have been killing themselves with turnovers and offensive penalties, while the Leos have gone just 5-for-11 in the red zone.
On the other side of the ball, the Tabbies have allowed a league-worst 31.3 points per game. While that number is a bit inflated due to poor field position after turning the ball over, other stats also indicate that Hamilton has a below-average defense. They are sixth in the CFL in opponent pass efficiency rating (106.3) and fifth in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.4).
For the Leos, their defense ranks seventh in both opponent pass efficiency rating (107.9) and yards allowed per rush attempt (4.6). Expect Hamilton quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell and a solid crop of receivers to move the chains against BC's vulnerable stop unit.
With two subpar defenses and a pair of extremely explosive scoring units taking the field on Sunday, the Over is the play.
Lions vs Tiger-Cats same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 53.5
Tiger-Cats alt spread +7.5
Tim White Over 69.5 receiving yards
Although the Ticats have yet to win a game this year, two of their last three defeats were very close. Hamilton had a double-digit lead evaporate late in the fourth quarter against the Riders in Week 2 before losing on a last-second field goal in Ottawa last week.
On the other side of the field, the Lions are coming off a pair of razor-thin victories. They knocked off the Elks with a last-second field goal last week and beat the Bombers with two minutes remaining in their Week 3 clash. With how close games have been across the league this season, it makes sense to push the Ticats line past that key number of 7 and add it to this parlay.
In one of the weirdest stats in the CFL, the Lions have allowed the fewest pass completions of 30+ yards (2) but have given up the second-highest yards per pass attempt (9.1). That's because while they do a good job of limiting big plays downfield, they get carved up on shorter routs.
That will be exposed by Ticats' wideout Tim White, who is one of the best receivers in the league at carving up defenses on short and immediate passes. White racked up over 1,200 receiving yards in each of the past two seasons and he's fresh off a 118-yard performance last week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lions vs Tiger-Cats odds
Lions vs Tiger-Cats live odds
Lions vs Tiger-Cats opening odds
- Spread: BC -5.5 (-110) | Hamilton +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: BC -250 | Hamilton +200
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-110) | Under 52.5 (-110)
Lions vs Tiger-Cats spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Lions are 3-1 straight up and 2-2 against the spread to begin the year, while the Ticats are 0-4 SU and ATS.
- BC's offense is spearheaded by Adams, who leads the CFL in passing yards (1,369) and yards per attempt (10.3) while ranking second in passer rating (115.8).
- The Ticats are tied for last in the league in turnover margin (-5) and are dead -last in offensive penalties (18).
- The Leos are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five visits to Tim Horton's Field, and the Over has cashed in four of those contests.
Lions vs Tiger-Cats trend
The Over is 6-2 in BC's last eight games on the road and is 4-1 in Hamilton's previous five contests at home. Find more CFL betting trends for Lions vs. Tiger-Cats.
Lions vs Tiger-Cats game info
| Location: | Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-7-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Lions vs Tiger-Cats key injuries
Lions: Francis Bemiy Jr. DL (Questionable), TJ Lee DB (Questionable), Keon Hatcher WR (Questionable), Josh Woods LB (Out), Michael Couture OL (Out).
Tiger-Cats: Richard Leonard DB (Questionable), James Tuck FB (Out), Jordan Murray OT (Out), Joel Figueroa LT (Out), Will Sunderland DB (Out), Lawrence Woods III DB/KR (Out), Enock Makonzo LB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Lions vs Tiger-Cats weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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