The Winnipeg Blue Bombers face off against the Toronto Argonauts in the 111th Grey Cup on Sunday.
This is Winnipeg's fifth straight Grey Cup appearance and although they come up short the last two years, my Argonauts vs. Blue Bombers predictions are betting on them to win big this time.
Here are my best free betting picks for the Grey Cup on TSN, with kickoff at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 17.
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers prediction
My best bet
Blue Bombers -9 (-108 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have been dominant since the start of August, going 10-1 straight up and 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games.
They've allowed just 18.4 ppg during that span, and their offense is peaking at the right time. Zach Collaros threw for 301 yards in last week's blowout win against the Roughriders, and they piled up another 194 yards on the ground thanks to MOP favorite Brady Oliveira.
They should move the ball against a Toronto Argonauts defense that finished the regular season second-last in the league in opponent pass efficiency (105.5). Toronto also surrendered 510 yards to the Redblacks in the Eastern Semi-Final before giving up 486 yards to the Alouettes in the Eastern Final.
To be fair, Winnipeg's offense stalled in a 14-11 loss to the Argos in Week 19. However, the Bombers turned the ball over twice in the red zone in that contest while missing a pair of field goals, and the long-term data suggests they'll finish those drives this time.
However, the primary reason I'm laying nine points is because Toronto lost superstar quarterback Chad Kelly to a broken leg last week. Toronto's passing game sputtered during the first half of the season when Kelly was suspended, and there's a big drop-off from him to backup Nick Arbuckle, who will be taking his first career playoff snap.
Arbuckle went 5-for-8 for 73 yards in relief last week, and he impressed in regular-season starts against Calgary and Edmonton. However, the Stamps and Elks have terrible defenses and he looked shaky when previously given starting opportunities over the last three years.
He'll struggle against an elite Winnipeg stop unit that led the CFL in opponent pass efficiency during the regular season (86.9) and allowed a league-low 234.8 passing yards per game.
There's a path to victory (or at least a cover) for the Argos, and it involves leaning on Ka'Deem Carey to run the ball down the throat of a Winnipeg defense that allowed 5.3 yards per carry. However, I expect Winnipeg's explosive offense to jump out to an early lead, which will force the Argos into a negative game script and mistakes from Arbuckle.
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers same-game parlay (SGP)
Blue Bombers -9.5
Zach Collaros Over 266.5 passing yards
Argonauts first-half team total Under 9.5
Collaros' passing yards total is suppressed largely due to the first half of the season when Winnipeg's offensive line and WR corps were banged up. The two-time MOP winner had 301 passing yards last week and threw for 331 yards in the regular-season finale against a stingy Alouettes pass defense.
Now he faces a Toronto defense that's been stout against the run but is vulnerable through the air, allowing 308 passing yards per game in the regular season and playoffs. Collaros was sacked seven times when these teams tangled in Week 19 but still finished with 249 passing yards, and he threw for 317 yards against the Argos in Week 8.
With a backup QB facing an elite Bombers pass defense, the Under on Toronto's team total seems like a no-brainer. That said, the Argos could score a few garbage-time touchdowns if they're in desperation mode and going for it on third down. Take the second half out of the equation and take the Under on their first-half team total instead.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers odds
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers live odds
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +8 | Winnipeg -8
- Moneyline: Toronto +275 | Winnipeg -400
- Over/Under: Over 50 | Under 50
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened with the Bombers at -7, but money poured in on them, pushing the spread to -10.5 before buyback on Toronto brought it below that key number of 10.
- Collaros had seven passing touchdowns with 13 interceptions through his first 10 starts of the year but has thrown 14 TDs and just two picks in his last seven games.
- Brady Oliveira led the CFL with 1,353 rushing yards on 5.7 yards per carry, but Toronto was second in the league in run defense.
- The Argos led the CFL with 48 sacks during the regular season, with 12 of those coming in two games against Winnipeg.
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers trend
The Bombers have gone 14-5 to the Under this year, while the rest of the league went 39-26 to the Over. Find more CFL betting trends for Argonauts vs. Blue Bombers.
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers game info
| Location: | BC Place, Vancouver, BC |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-17-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers latest injuries
Argonauts: Isiah Cage LT (Questionable), Jonathan Jones LB (Questionable).
Blue Bombers: Nic Demski WR (Questionable), Drew Wolitarsky WR (Out), Dalton Schoen WR (Out), Adam Bighill LB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Argonauts vs Blue Bombers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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