The Toronto Argonauts face off against the Montreal Alouettes in the Eastern Final on Saturday.
These have been the last two teams to win the Grey Cup, and my Argonauts vs. Alouettes predictions are banking on a shootout at Percival Molson Stadium.
Here are my best free CFL picks for November 9, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Argonauts vs Alouettes prediction
My best bet
Over 52 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
When these teams faced off at BMO Field in Week 17, the Toronto Argonauts won 37-31 while rolling up 517 yards of offense.
The Argos have been cashing Overs since Chad Kelly returned to the team, going 7-2 O/U in their last nine games. This is an up-tempo offense and Kelly pushes the ball downfield, averaging 312.1 passing yards per game and 10.1 yards per attempt in nine regular season and playoff starts.
The Montreal Alouettes showed cracks on defense towards the end of the season and losing top defensive lineman Mustafa Johnson to a knee injury hurts. The Als ranked second-last in the CFL with 5.7 yards allowed per rush which bodes well for Toronto's Ka'Deem Carey who rushed for 1,060 yards and 5.6 per carry behind a stout offensive line.
That said, the Argos have struggled to defend the pass and allowed Dru Brown to throw for 463 yards in the East Semi-Final. They finished the regular season second-last in the league in opponent pass efficiency (105.5) and passing yards allowed per game (296.8), and they'll have a tough time containing an explosive Alouettes offense spearheaded by quarterback Cody Fajardo.
Another reason to favor the Over is the special teams play, with Toronto’s Janarion Grant and Montreal’s James Letcher Jr. being two of the best returners in the CFL. The Als allowed the second-most big play returns in the league (11) and were last in opponent kick return average (25.2 yards), while the Argos gave up nine big play returns and ranked worst in opponent punt return average (13.6 yards).
Argonauts vs Alouettes same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 52.5
Argonauts moneyline
Charleston Rambo Under 4.5 receptions
The Als were the most dominant team in the CFL for the first three months of the season but went just 2-4-1 straight up and 3-4 against the spread after clinching a playoff spot.
It's fair to question whether it was a lack of motivation or whether teams have figured out how to beat them. Regardless, it's crucial to enter the playoffs with momentum — which we saw over the last two years when these teams each made championship runs. That has me leaning toward the Argos on the moneyline.
Charleston Rambo has snagged fewer than 4.5 receptions in eight straight games, logging just 2.9 receptions per game over that span. He hasn't even been targeted more than four times in his last four contests, and with a healthy Austin Mack in the lineup, Rambo could see an ever-lower target share on Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Argonauts vs Alouettes odds
Argonauts vs Alouettes live odds
Argonauts vs Alouettes opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +1.5 | Montreal -1.5
- Moneyline: Toronto +105 | Montreal -125
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
Argonauts vs Alouettes spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the Alouettes shifting their spread from -1.5 to -2.5 but a move to the key number of 3 doesn't look likely.
- The Alouettes were 7-3 ATS through their first 10 games of the season but went 3-5 ATS in their final eight contests.
- The Argos have gone 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games while scoring 30+ points in six of those contests.
- Toronto is 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams with the Over cashing in six of those clashes.
Argonauts vs Alouettes trend
Montreal went 7-2 to the Over at home this year, while Toronto has gone 9-3 O/U in its last 12 games on the road. Find more CFL betting trends for Argonauts vs. Alouettes.
Argonauts vs Alouettes game info
| Location: | Percival Molson Stadium, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-9-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Argonauts vs Alouettes key injuries
Argonauts: Damonte Coxie WR (Questionable), Isiah Cage LT (Out), Jonathan Jones LB (Out).
Alouettes: Josh Donovan RT (Doubtful), Mustafa Johnson DT (Out), Tyson Philpot WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Argonauts vs Alouettes weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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