The BC Lions face off against the Saskatchewan Roughriders in the Western Semi-Final on Saturday.
Although the Leos have plenty of offensive firepower, my Lions vs. Roughriders predictions don't think that'll be enough to overcome the home side. Here are my best free CFL picks for this playoff clash on November 2.
Lions vs Roughriders prediction
My best bet
Roughriders -3 (-113 at Unibet)
My analysis
The BC Lions went 4-8 straight up and against the spread in their final 12 games and were destroyed by the Saskatchewan Roughriders at Mosaic three weeks ago, losing 39-8.
The Leos bounced back from that ugly loss with a win against Montreal in their regular season finale the following week, but that was at home against an Alouettes side that didn't give much effort after having already clinched first place in the East.
The Lions enter this matchup with the lowest-graded offensive line in the league per PFF. Quarterback Nathan Rourke also struggled in his return to the CFL, which led to the Leos going back to Vernon Adams Jr. at QB in Week 20.
Adams threw for 385 yards in that contest but also had a pair of picks. He has thrown eight interceptions in his last 110 pass attempts, and that turnover-prone play will be costly against a Riders defense that leads the league with 49 takeaways.
On the other side of the ball, the Leos have a strong defensive line but are weak in their secondary and at linebacker. They rank last in the league in opponent pass efficiency (107.2), which is bad news against Riders QB Trevor Harris — who leads the CFL in pass efficiency (108.4).
Saskatchewan was riddled with injuries on their O-line but showed massive improvement down the stretch with mid-season acquisition Trevon Tate impressing at right tackle and Logan Ferland being named the West Division’s Most Outstanding Offensive Lineman.
With the Riders also getting back center Peter Godber following a six-game absence, they'll pave the way for the formidable running back duo of A.J. Ouellette and Ryquell Armstead. Considering the Riders boast the vastly better defense and offensive line, back them on the spread.
Lions vs Roughriders same-game parlay (SGP)
Roughriders alt spread -2.5
William Stanback Over 50.5 rushing yards
KeeSean Johnson Over 66.5 receiving yards
Stanback was held to 35 yards on eight carries when these teams met up in Week 19, but that was largely due to the Leos falling behind early. I don't expect a blowout this time and I could see a more conservative approach from BC's offense in order to limit turnovers.
That should lead to more carries and yards for Stanback, who finished second in the CFL with 1,175 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per pop during the regular season.
After years spent riding the pine in the NFL, KeeSean Johnson has decided to become a star north of the border. Johnson earned a starting job by the middle of the season and has been outstanding, racking up more than 70 receiving yards in six of his last nine games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lions vs Roughriders odds
Lions vs Roughriders live odds
Lions vs Roughriders opening odds
- Spread: BC +3 | Saskatchewan -3
- Moneyline: BC +150 | Saskatchewan -180
- Over/Under: Over 51 | Under 51
Lions vs Roughriders spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Riders went 4-0 SU and ATS in their final four games before resting several key starters in a meaningless Week 21 loss to the Stampeders.
- The Lions went 3-6 SU and ATS on the road with an average scoring margin of -6.3 ppg.
- Saskatchewan leads the CFL with a turnover margin of +26, while BC had a turnover margin of -6.
- It will be a sunny Saturday in Regina with temperatures around 8 degrees Celsius. However, wind could play a factor with breezes expected up to 15 mph.
Lions vs Roughriders trend
BC is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. Find more CFL betting trends for Lions vs. Roughriders.
Lions vs Roughriders game info
| Location: | Mosaic Stadium, Regina, SK |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-2-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Lions vs Roughriders key injuries
Lions: Ciante Evans DB (Out), Boseko Lokombo LB (Out).
Roughriders: Shawn Bane WR (Out), Ryan Sceviour G (Questionable), Jermarcus Hardrick RT (Out), Dohnte Myers WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Lions vs Roughriders weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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