The CFL playoffs kick off this weekend with the Toronto Argonauts hosting the Ottawa Redblacks in the Eastern Semi-Final on Saturday afternoon.
These teams have already been in a pair of shootouts since Labour Day, and my Redblacks vs Argonauts predictions are banking on another high-scoring contest. Here are my best free CFL picks for November 2.
Redblacks vs Argonauts prediction
My best bet
Over 51.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Redblacks have struggled defensively away from home all year, allowing 32.9 points per game on the road. They were also shredded through the air down the stretch, allowing 324 passing yards per game and 9.9 yards per pass attempt over their final eight games.
That's bad news against an up-tempo Argos attack and star QB Chad Kelly who threw for 306.4 passing yards per game and 9.5 ypa. It helps that Kelly is protected by the league's highest-graded offensive line and can hand off to 1,000-yard rusher Ka'Deem Carey when he isn't attacking downfield.
While the Argos showed defensive improvement in Weeks 19 and 20, they still finished the year with some ugly numbers. They were second-last in the CFL in opponent pass efficiency (105.5) and allowed a league-high 36 pass completions of 30+ yards. That should lead to big chunk plays from an explosive Redblacks aerial attack featuring wideouts Justin Hardy and Dominique Rhymes.
Special teams is another reason to like the Over. The Argos led the league in big play returns (15) while the Redblacks tied for second (13) and Ottawa allowed the third-most big play returns (10) with Toronto giving up nine.
Redblacks vs Argonauts same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 52.5
Argonauts alt spread -2.5
Makai Polk 100+ receiving yards
Although I'm not willing to lay 6.5 points on the Argos against a dangerous Redblacks offense, I will take them below that key number of 3. Especially since Ottawa has gone just 2-6 straight up and against the spread in its last eight games and has struggled on the road all year.
Makai Polk emerged as one of the best receivers in the CFL down the stretch. He racked up 100+ receiving yards in five of his last seven games, including both contests against Ottawa.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Redblacks vs Argonauts odds
Redblacks vs Argonauts live odds
Redblacks vs Argonauts opening odds
- Spread: Ottawa +5.5 | Toronto -5.5
- Moneyline: Ottawa +210 | Toronto -260
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
Redblacks vs Argonauts spread and Over/Under analysis
- When these teams faced off two weeks ago in Toronto, the Argonauts opened as 2.5-point favorites. This time, however, they opened at -5.5 before shifting to -6.5.
- Toronto won that previous meeting 38-31 but had a 38-6 lead entering the fourth quarter before Ottawa stopped punting on third down and converted two onside kicks.
- The Argos went 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS at home while the Redblacks went 2-7 SU and ATS on the road.
- The Argos went 6-2 to the Over in their final eight games while the Redblacks are 6-2 O/U in Dru Brown's last eight starts.
Redblacks vs Argonauts trend
The Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these East Division foes, with Toronto going 5-1 SU and ATS over that span. Find more CFL betting trends for Redblacks vs. Argonauts.
Redblacks vs Argonauts game info
| Location: | BMO Field, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-02-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Redblacks vs Argonauts key injuries
Redblacks: Alonzo Addae S (Questionable), Dino Boyd LT (Out), Adarius Pickett LB (Out).
Argonauts: Damonte Coxie WR (Questionable), Fraser Sopik LB (Out), Robert Priester DB (Questionable), Quincy Mauger DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Redblacks vs Argonauts weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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