College football betting has a new game on the Week 3 schedule with the Houston Cougars facing the Baylor Bears. Both programs scrambled to put together a matchup after their previously-scheduled opponents were sidelined by COVID-19 concerns.
Baylor is coming off an 11-3 season where they fell just short of the CFP after losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. NCAA football odds have them as 7.5-point favorites against a Houston program looking to improve on a 4-8 finish in 2019.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Houston vs. Baylor on Saturday, September 19, with kickoff at noon ET.
Houston Cougars vs Baylor Bears betting preview
Weather
It's expected to be a warm and sunny day at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas with temperatures in the 80's and winds up to 9.5 miles per hour. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Houston: Mulbah Car RB (Questionable), Sedrick Williams DL (Out), Ta'Zhawn Henry RB (Out), Bubba Baxa K (Out)
Baylor: Xavier Newman-Johnson OL (Out)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 10-2-1 in Cougars last 13 road games as an underdog. Find more NCAA football betting trends for Houston vs. Baylor.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Baylor was one of the most balanced teams in the country last season, finishing in the Top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency according to the SP+ rating system. While the Bears defense might not be quite as good (more on that later), their offense should be even better.
Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer returns for his senior year after passing for 3,161 yards and 21 touchdowns against just seven interceptions, while also running for 11 scores on the ground.
Brewer loses his top two receivers from a year ago but Baylor seems to have a revolving door of insanely-talented wideouts and the offensive line should perform better with another year of experience, after struggling to keep Brewer upright in 2019. Even if the Bears O-line isn't improved, it might not make much of a difference against a Houston defense that couldn't get to the QB last year.
The Cougars added several defensive backs through the transfer portal and will need all the help they can get for what was one of the worst defenses in the country last season. The Cougars ranked outside the Top 120 schools in the country in passing yards allowed and surrendered 35.5 points per game against FBS foes.
If Houston can't put pressure on Brewer he will destroy them through the air. Take Baylor to win and cover the spread.
PREDICTION: Baylor -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under
Baylor isn't the only team in this matchup who has a returning starter at QB. Clayton Tune started seven games as Houston's QB in 2019 and should take a big step in development after spending a year in coach Dana Holgorsen’s Air Raid system. He'll certainly have lots of weapons with the Cougars top four receiving targets from last year back in the fold, along with leading rusher Kyle Porter.
While Baylor's defense was terrific last season, they return just two starters from a unit that had the best scoring defense in the Big 12. With so many new faces on D they're bound to take a step back. With both offenses rolling into the new season with plenty of continuity and two defenses with question marks, don't be scared off by the big total and take the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 62.5 (-110)
Prop Pick
Baylor scored a whopping 59 offensive touchdowns in 2019 and could be even stronger in the red zone with a more experienced O-line this year. Houston surrendered 4.6 TDs per game to FBS foes and on the road gave up 12.2 points per game in the opening quarter.
We like Baylor to open the scoring by crossing the goal line first on Saturday.
PREDICTION: First score method - Baylor touchdown (+140)
Houston vs Baylor betting card
- Baylor -7.5 (-110)
- Over 62.5 (-110)
- First score method - Baylor touchdown (+140)
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