The Carolina Panthers are missing a big piece of their playbook when they visit the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3.
Carolina will be without the services of multi-talented running back Christian McCaffrey, who suffered an ankle injury in Week 2’s defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That’s a huge loss for a Panthers offense under a new coordinator and quarterback. The NFL betting odds have the Chargers set as 6.5-point home favorites, despite some questions around their QB situation.
These are our NFL free picks and predictions for Panthers vs. Chargers on September 27.
Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Chargers betting preview
Weather
This game will be played indoors at SoFi Stadium. Be sure to monitor gametime conditions for all of Week 3's games with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Panthers: Christian McCaffrey RB (Out), Russell Okung T (Out), Dennis Daley G (Out).
Chargers: Justin Jackson RB (Out), Tyrod Taylor QB (Out), Trai Turner G (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Chargers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
This lookahead line, which was posted ahead of Week 2, had the Chargers laying 6.5 points at home. Sunday night, the official Week 3 odds hit the board at sportsbooks and the Bolts were as high as 7.5-point faves after an overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, but have come down to -6.5.
It’s a tough situational spot for the Chargers, coming off a close loss to the reigning Super Bowl champs and knowing a trip to Tampa to play Tom Brady and the Bucs is on tap for Week 4. And that’s before folding in the team’s QB controversy.
As of now, starter Tyrod Taylor is the No. 1 but is listed at day-to-day with a rib (and then punctured lung) injury that made him a late scratch last Sunday and opened the door for rookie passer Justin Herbert to shine. The former Oregon standout completed 22 of 33 passes for 311 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Herbert is expected to start on Sunday, but even given that, there’s not much difference between Taylor and Herbert when it comes to the point spread, as far as bookies are concerned.
The Panthers defense has been rotten through two weeks, allowing 34 and 31 points in losses to Las Vegas and Tampa Bay. Carolina is 29th in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders, unable to keep opponents out of the end zone when inside their own 20-yard line and failing to pick up a single sack in those contests.
The home team under a touchdown, with Carolina missing its best player and crossing the country for a second straight road game, looks like the better spread play.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles -6.5 (-115)
Over/Under pick
Despite the loss of McCaffrey, Panthers head coach Mark Rhule said there will be no changes to Joe Brady’s playbook. Second-string RB Mike Davis is now the featured back but doesn’t present the same dual-threat dangers as McCaffrey. He had a total of eight catches for just 22 yards in 2019 and isn’t a reliable release valve for QB Teddy Bridgewater when plays go bust.
Bridgewater could find himself under fire against a Bolts pass rush that really made the difference in a near upset over Kansas City last weekend. While Joey Bosa was the only Chargers player to pick up a sack, the L.A. pass rush was constantly hurrying Patrick Mahomes and didn’t allow him to get comfortable in the pocket (outside of the pocket was a different story). Bridgewater was sacked five times versus Tampa Bay in Week 2.
As for the Chargers offense, Herbert will likely be under center Sunday, meaning the Bolts will likely lean on the ground game, with Austin Ekeler coming off a strong showing versus the Chiefs. He had 93 yards rushing on 16 carries and tacked on a bonus 55 yards receiving, reeling in all four passes his way.
Even if McCaffrey was healthy, the Under would be the prime Over/Under pick.
PREDICTION: Under 44 (-110)
Player prop pick
And speaking of Ekeler, he’s in store for another big Sunday, especially if running mate Justin Jackson remains sidelined by a quad injury. Jackson is questionable after missing Week 2, which is a key reason why Ekeler balled out.
Carolina’s defense is 19th versus the run, giving up 4.8 yards per carry to opponents heading into Week 3. If Taylor is the starting QB, he likely won’t be running much due to a tender chest, so that means added work for the Bolts’ featured back.
The Panthers allowed 122 yards on the ground to the Buccaneers last Sunday, with Leonard Fournette rumbling for 103 yards on 12 attempts. That included him breaking off a 46-yard TD run to the excitement of Bucs bettors, pushing Tampa Bay ahead of the 7.5-point spread with 1:48 left in the game.
PREDICTION: Austin Ekeler Over 60.5 rushing yards (-122)
Panthers vs Chargers betting card
- Los Angeles -6.5 (-115)
- Under 44 (-110)
- Austin Ekeler Over 60.5 rushing yards (-122)
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