The Houston Rockets were set up perfectly in their quarterfinal series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Houston was up 2-0 and allotted a cushion to rest injured star Russell Westbrook with no need to rush him back.
That cushion has dissolved with OKC tying the series 2-2 but due to the players' boycott and Game 5 being moved from Wednesday to Saturday, Westbrook is expected to return.
These are our NBA free picks and predictions for Thunder vs. Rockets on August 29.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets betting preview
NBA Odds to Win Series
Oklahoma City: +145
Houston: -170
Injuries
Oklahoma City: Deonte Burton G (Probable)
Houston: Russell Westbrook G (Probable)
Betting Trend to Know
Rockets are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Get the latest NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Rockets.
Against the spread pick
Things sure did go south for the Rockets in the second half of Game 4 after jumping out to a 15-point lead on eight straight made 3-pointers. Houston finished the night hitting only five of its final 26 looks from beyond the arc, but that’s not the most concerning thing.
As the offense sputtered, James Harden couldn’t jump start it. The Beard was checked closely by rookie Luguentz Dort (who actually wears Harden’s signature Adidas but switched out for this series) and Harden failed to go to the foul line in the fourth quarter. In fact, he’s just 2 for 3 on free throws in the final frame the past two contests.
Harden desperately needs some of Westbrook’s will to win (or refuse to lose) because OKC doesn’t drop during close games. My original pick for this game on Wednesday was OKC and the points, however, with Westbrook giving Houston another gear and a superstar to lean on and the Thunder's momentum getting snuffed out by the shuffle in schedule, I'm taking Houston to return to the form of the first two games of the series.
PREDICTION: Houston -5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Thunder figured out their identity for this series, going with a scoring focus rather than throwing their defensive specialists at Houston and hoping for the best with the basketball.
Dennis Schroder is coming off the bench but logging big minutes, turning out 29 and 30 points in the past two games, and Billy Donovan’s smaller lineup has upped the tempo of the series, with a pace rating of 102.42 in those two wins compared to just 95.75 in the opening pair of games.
That’s tipped the scales in terms of the total, with the last two games playing Over the number. We know what we’re going to get from the Rockets and just because shots weren’t falling for a short time in Game 4 doesn’t mean Houston shies away from what makes it great.
PREDICTION: Over 226 (-110)
First half prop pick
If you thought the Rockets shot a lot of 3-pointers with Westbrook out of the lineup, just wait until he's back driving and kicking to Houston's hot hands on the outside.
Heading into the postseason, the Rockets averaged 24.8 3-point attempts with Westbrook on the floor compared to 18.2 shots from distance without. The team's offensive pace also gets fuel injected, jumping from 101.2 without Russ to 105.2 with him at the wheel.
Houston has posted first-half scores of 60, 63, 53, and 68 points so far in this series, shooting a combined 46.75 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from beyond the arc in the opening 24 miknutes, with a first-half pace of only 98.75. Westbrook and Rockets will look to get started early from outside.
PREDICTION: Rockets first-half team total Over 59.5 (-110)
Thunder vs Rockets Betting Card
- Houston -5 (-110)
- Over 226 (-110)
- Rockets first-half team total Over 59.5 (-110)
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