Even in victory, the Denver Nuggets saw plenty of worrisome signs in Game 3 of the Western Conference finals.
The Nuggets trimmed the Los Angeles Lakers' series lead in half with a 114-106 triumph that got really interesting in the fourth quarter, as the Lakers reduced a 20-point fourth-quarter deficit to three with 5:26 remaining before Denver pulled away for good. Los Angeles still has oddsmakers in its corner as it looks to rebound from one of its worst 3-point shooting performances of the 2019-20 season.
These are our favorite NBA free picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Nuggets on September 24.
Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets betting preview
NBA Odds to Win Series
Los Angeles: -1,200
Denver: +750
Injuries
Los Angeles: Dion Waiters SG (Doubtful)
Denver: None
Find our latest NBA injury reports for every game.
Betting Trend to Know
Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Nuggets.
Lakers vs Nuggets line movement
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The SuperBook at Westgate opened Lakers -6 and has been at -6.5 since Wednesday morning. "We had a house player come in and bet Lakers -6.5 for $50,000 earlier today," SuperBook oddsmaker Cameron Coombs said. "We have stayed high on the Lakers the last two days. We anticipated action on them."
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The Lakers opened -6 at DraftKings and spent a couple of hours today at -6.5 before going back to -6. It's very much two-way action on the point spread, with a slight lean toward the Nuggets, who are getting 52 percent of tickets and 53 percent of money. The total nudged around a little, from 215 to 214 to 214.5, but action is strongly weighted toward the Over, at 78 percent of tickets and bets.
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FanDuel Sportsbook opened the Lakers -6 late Tuesday night and spent a couple of hours Wednesday at -6.5, before returning to the opening line. The Nuggets are once again a popular point-spread play in this series, attracting 65 percent of tickets and 77 percent of money so far. Moneyline bettors are on Denver as well, to the tune of 81 percent of bets and 69 percent of dollars. The total opened 215 and dipped to 214, then went to 214.5 Wednesday evening, but bettors are all over the Over, which is taking 82 percent of bets and 89 percent of cash.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The spread movement has been incremental all season, and that trend continues Thursday with the Lakers sitting at -6, a half-point below their Game 3 advantage. Both teams have been sensational cover options in the NBA playoffs, and you get the sense that the games are going to continue to be closely-fought affairs, with the last two decided by a combined 11 points.
Consider the advantage the Nuggets have in two key areas: they're the superior 3-point shooting team at 38.6 percent to the Lakers' 35.5 percent, and they're knocking down more than 80 percent of their free throws while L.A. is at a dismal 73.4 percent for the postseason. The Lakers shot 23.1 percent from deep and 63.6 percent from the line in the Game 3 defeat.
Game 1 result aside, this series has been very close – and we like that trend continuing Thursday, which is why we're taking the Nuggets and the points.
PREDICTION: Denver +6 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The books have settled on a total of 214.5, with the Nuggets and Lakers having gone above the number in two of the first three games. And while we don't expect both teams to shoot better than 51 percent from the floor as they did in Game 3, we do see a few signs that this game will surpass the total.
For starters, the Lakers should be better from the free-throw line, even with their playoff-long struggles. Anthony Davis went 9-for-10 Tuesday, while the rest of the team was a collective 5-for-12. That includes a 1-for-2 showing from LeBron James, who had averaged 7.6 attempts vs. Houston but is at just 3.3 against Denver. He needs to get to the foul line more often.
Combine that with the likelihood of L.A. surpassing the six made 3-pointers it had in Game 3, and we're confident in the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 214.5 (-110)
Player Prop
It was completely confounding to see Nikola Jokic as a virtual non-factor down the stretch for a Nuggets team that very nearly found itself down 3-0 in the Western Conference finals. Jokic went into the final quarter with 22 points, but attempted just one shot over the final 12 minutes, finishing 9-of-14 from the field while adding 10 rebounds and five assists.
Look for Jokic to stay offensively involved throughout Game 4 as Denver tries to even the series.
PREDICTION: Nikola Jokic Over 23.5 Points (-110)
Lakers vs Nuggets Betting Card
- Denver +6 (-110)
- Over 214.5 (-110)
- Nikola Jokic Over 23.5 Points (-110)
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