The Mark Williams revenge game was a banger as the Charlotte Hornets upset the Los Angeles Lakers as 12.5-point underdogs last night and now Buzz City will go for two wins in as many nights as they continue their road trip to take on the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena.
But pulling off another huge upset might be a little tougher this time around. Not only are the Hornets 16.5-point pups playing the second half of a back-to-back, but they’ll also have to do so at elevation.
My Hornets vs. Nuggets predictions break down what chances, if any, Charlotte has in this matchup, and bring you my NBA picks for this 9:00 pm ET tip on Thursday, Feb. 20.
Hornets vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet
Miles Bridges Under 24.5 Points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Mark Williams and the Charlotte Hornets are buzzing following their 100-97 win over the Los Angeles Lakers last night. But it will be interesting to see how much they have left in the tank when they take on the Denver Nuggets tonight.
A second half of a back-to-back is never easy. It’s even tougher when you’re a 16.5-point underdog and you have to play at Denver's elevation.
Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets headed into the break on fire, winning eight in a row, and are 16-4 in their last 20 games to climb into third spot in the Western Conference. And the defense has been a little better in February, ranking 10th in defensive rating over seven games this month.
All this has the sign of a major letdown spot for the Hornets. And while I’m not going to run to the betting window to lay 16.5 points with the Nuggets, I think there’s a way to take advantage of this tough spot in the form of a player prop.
When playing in back-to-backs, the shooting legs are one of the first things to go, especially at this altitude. So, that has me targeting the point total for Hornets forward Miles Bridges.
Bridges is averaging 19.8 points per game this season, although that is up to 22.6 over his last 12. He is coming off a weird night in the win against the Lakers. Bridges scored 29 points, going 9-for-22 from the floor, but 5-for-11 from 3-point range.
Basically, when Bridges is hitting his threes, he's going over his point totals, which has been elevated to 24.5 for this matchup. But the Nuggets present a tough matchup for him in that sense. Denver allows the fewest attempted threes (9.6) and made threes (3.4) to opposing forwards per game in the NBA.
With the Hornets already scoring the third-fewest points per game at just 106.1 per contest, I find it hard to see Bridges topping his point total in this situation. It doesn’t hurt that our Covers Prop Projections have him coming in at 19.7 points as well.
Hornets vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Miles Bridges Under 24.5 Points
Nuggets team total Over 122.5
Michael Porter Jr. Over 1.5 Assists
The Hornets have been surprisingly good defensively this season, but getting this matchup in a back-to-back is tough. Plus, the Nuggets are averaging an NBA-best 128.1 points per game during their eight-game winning streak while also leading the NBA in offensive rating over that stretch.
And let’s round this same-game parlay out with Michael Porter Jr. to go Over 1.5 assists. As a standalone bet, the Over is sitting at nice plus money. The versatile Porter is averaging 2.2 assists per game this season and has recorded two or more assists in five of his last eight games while the Hornets rank 14th in assists per game to opposing forwards.
This SGP can be profit-boosted by 30% tonight at bet365.
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Hornets vs Nuggets odds
Hornets vs Nuggets live odds
Hornets vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Charlotte +15 (-110) | Denver -15 (-110)
- Moneyline: Charlotte +650 | Denver -1000
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 (-110) | Under 227.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Hornets vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Nuggets opened as 15-point home favorites but that hasn't scared away early bettors as the spread has moved to 16.5.
- The Nuggets have covered six spreads in a row but are just 4-3 ATS when laying double-digit points this season.
- The total opened at 227.5 and has been bet up slightly to 229.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
- It's hard to get a read on this total. The Hornets are a great Under team (19-33-1 O/U) with their surprising defense and poor offense. The Nuggets are the opposite and are 33-21-1 O/U. I like the Nuggets to carry their weight here but I'm staying away from the full-game total for fear of the Hornets laying an egg.
Hornets vs Nuggets trend
The Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 53 games for +13.10 Units and a 22% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Hornets vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Hornets vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado |
| Date | Thursday, 2-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network SE-Charlotte, ALT, KTVD |
Hornets vs Nuggets latest injuries
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