Fresh off their Week 5 bye, the Detroit Lions head to Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars as 3.5-point favorites. Jacksonville has dropped four games in a row and heads into Sunday’s match with major injury concerns on both sides of the ball.
The Lions opened as favorites for just the second time this year and first on the road. Most books have moved the Lions off the three to -3.5 but some notable books are staying put on the -3. The total has ticked up two points after opening at 52.5, and the 54.5 total is tied for the second-highest mark in Week 6.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Lions vs Jaguars for Sunday, October 18 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars betting preview
Weather
The temperatures are expected in the mid-70s in Florida on Sunday, with a 17% chance of precipitation and an 11-mph wind. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Lions: Desmond Trufant CB (Out), Justin Coleman CB (Out).
Jaguars: Josh Allen DL (Out), Daniel Ekuale DT (Out), Luc Barcoo CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 5-0 in the Lions’ last five road games against a team with a losing record. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Jaguars.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Injuries are a big reason why the Jaguars opened up Week 6 as a home underdog by more than a field goal. Jacksonville could be without its best wide receiver in DJ Chark, best corner in CJ Henderson, best interior defensive lineman in Josh Allen and best linebacker in Myles Jack. Henderson, Allen and Jack missed Week 5’s loss to the then-winless Texans and the Jaguars allowed nearly 500 yards in just 58 plays. No team allowed more yards per play than Jacksonville last week.
Detroit squandered a 14-0 first-quarter lead against the Saints in Week 4 but won on the road in Arizona in Week 3 as a 4.5-point underdog. Detroit doesn’t rank in the Top 20 in rush or pass offense, but with Jacksonville sporting the league’s worst DVOA defense, a healthy Kenny Golladay and Matthew Stafford could have a big game against a team that let Deshaun Watson throw for a season-high 359 yards and allows the highest completion percentage to opposing QBs (76%).
PREDICTION: Detroit -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
In Week 3, Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew was without his top receiver and Jacksonville lost to the Dolphins 31-13. The Jags’ offense managed just seven first-half points as the QB had his worst game of the year. The Lions own the league’s worst DVOA rush defense which means we could see the Jaguars and RB James Robinson play the control the ball — and clock — game. If we were Doug Marrone, we wouldn’t want to expose our banged-up defense either.
With rain a possibility on Sunday, 55 points is a lot to ask for two teams that rank outside the Top 10 in both pass and run offense. Both Detroit and Jacksonville have seen a total of 53 or over just once this year and both games hit the Under. Detroit has a surprisingly decent pass defense that is allowing the eighth-lowest completion percentage. This total might be at its peak at 54.5 as a more accurate weather forecast comes out later this week.
PREDICTION: Under 54.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
With WR DJ Chark questionable after leaving last week’s game and missing all of Week 3, Minshew has had to find a new weapon in the passing game. Enter second-round WR Laviska Shenault Jr., who caught seven of his eight targets for 79 yards last week and managed 86 yards in Week 4.
His 14 targets are a team-high over the last two weeks and the 42nd-overall pick in this year’s draft could face a Detroit secondary that could be without starting CB Desmond Trufant. Shenault is also now questionable for Sunday's game, but if he does play, Jacksonville’s injured and porous defense means he could be a huge benefactor of negative game script — as Minshew has made a living this season padding his stats in garbage time.
PREDICTION: Laviska Shenault Jr. Over 48.5 receiving yards (-120)
Lions vs Jaguars betting card
- Detroit -3.5 (-110)
- Under 54.5 (-110)
- Laviska Shenault Jr. Over 48.5 receiving yards (-120)
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