NFL odds Week 3: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will face a stern Monday night test at home against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. The SuperBook installed Baltimore as a 3-point favorite.

Patrick Everson • SPORTS BETTING INDUSTRY INSIDER
Sep 28, 2020 • 05:22 ET

NFL Week 2 is almost in the books, NFL Week 3 odds are on the board and already getting some attention. Among the marquee matchups is a massive Monday nighter between the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 3 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

These are the current NFL Week 3 odds, as of September 20. Click on each matchup in the table below to get updated in-depth information on the opening lines, sharp money, public betting, and odds movement as we get closer to kickoff.

Matchup Time Spread Over/Under
Dolphins at Jaguars 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday Jaguars -2.5 49
Raiders at Patriots 1 p.m. ET Sunday Patriots -6.5 47.5
Rams at Bills 1 p.m. ET Sunday Bills -2 47
Texans at Steelers 1 p.m. ET Sunday Steelers -4.5 45.5
49ers at Giants 1 p.m. ET Sunday Giants +3 42.5
Titans at Vikings 1 p.m. ET Sunday Vikings +3 50
Washington at Browns 1 p.m. ET Sunday Browns -7 45
Bengals at Eagles 1 p.m. ET Sunday Eagles -4 47.5
Bears at Falcons 1 p.m. ET Sunday Falcons -3 47
Jets at Colts Sun, 4:05 p.m. ET Colts -11.5 44
Panthers at Chargers 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday Chargers -6 43.5
Lions at Cardinals 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday Cardinals -5.5 55.5
Buccaneers at Broncos 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday Broncos +6 42.5
Cowboys at Seahawks 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday Seahawks -5.5 56.5
Packers at Saints 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday Saints -3.5 52
Chiefs at Ravens 8:15 p.m. ET Monday Ravens -3.5 55.5

Odds courtesy of The SuperBook

Opening line

Jaguars -2, Over/Under 47.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 8:10 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Minutes before kickoff, PointsBet USA is at Jaguars -3, with a total of 49. PointsBet's Patrick Eichner said 75 percent of money and tickets are on the Jaguars, and there's moneyline support for Jacksonville, as well. The total started at 45 and topped out at 49.5, before ticking back to 49 this evening. Ticket count is split 50/50 on the total, but the Under is getting 65 percent of the money.

UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The SuperBook moved the Jags from -3 to -2.5 (-120) this afternoon. "Jacksonville has a few key players out," SuperBook oddsmaker Cameron Coombs said, alluding to wideout D.J. Chark and place-kicker Josh Lambo, among others. "We’ve taken some sharp money on the Dolphins moneyline and Over 48.5. The current total is 49."

UPDATE 4:15 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The Jaguars moved from -2 to -3 by Tuesday and stuck there at DraftKings Sportsbook. Jacksonville is getting 73 percent of tickets and 70 percent of dollars on the spread, and moneyline tickets and dollars are running 2/1 on the Jags. The total jumped from the opener of 44 Sunday to 49 this afternoon, before ticking back a notch to 48.5. Sixty-five percent of tickets and 75 percent of dollars bet are on the Over.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: BetMGM opened the Jaguars -2.5 and moved to -3, and Jacksonville is landing 69 percent of tickets on the spread. But spread money is definitely two-way play, with the Jags getting 51 percent to the Dolphins' 49 percent. The total was a much bigger mover, from 45 to 49, with two-thirds of tickets and 96 percent of cash on the Over. That includes a $33,000 play on Over 47.5.

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Jacksonville is 1-1 SU, but cashed in its first two games, losing to Tennessee 33-30 Sunday but covering as a 7-point road underdog. Miami is out of the gate 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, getting a last-minute touchdown Sunday to cover as a 5.5-point home 'dog in a 31-28 loss to the Bills.

So John Murray and his oddsmaking team at The SuperBook made the Jags modest 2-point favorites at home for the Thursday night tilt, and there was apparently a little early Jacksonville interest, as the line went to Jags -2.5.

Opening line

Patriots -6.5, Over/Under 47

Why the line moved

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: As BetMGM Nevada's Jeff Stoneback said: "It's never good when the public and the sharps are on the same side." That's the case today, as sharp play on the Patriots helped bring this line up from a low of New England -5, and the public trailed to push it to -7 this morning, before it ticked back to -6.5. "We definitely need the Raiders here, and it's a pretty big decision," Stoneback said. "Ticket count is about equal, but money is 8/1 on the Patirots. The public is all over the Patriots." That includes plenty of parlay, moneyline parlay and teaser play.

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: This line has been on a little ride throughout the week at FanDuel, opening at Patriots -6, going to -6.5 a couple times, then dropping as low as -5 before rebounding to -6 Saturday. The Patriots are taking 65 percent of tickets and 74 percent of money through Saturday night. The total opened at 47.5 and moved to 48.5 Tuesday, but quickly returned to 47.5. Sixty-four percent of tickets are on the Over, but the money is two-way, with 52 percent on the Over.

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The Patriots dropped to -4.5 briefly on Thursday at The SuperBook and have since rebounded to -5.5. But the Raiders are a popular play, no question. SuperBook supervisor/oddsmaker Cameron Coombs said this contest is much like the Jets-Colts game, with the line steaming throughout the week thanks to Las Vegas' impressive Monday night home win over the Saints. "The public will be all over (the Raiders) come the weekend," Coombs said.

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"We opened the Patriots -6.5 and didn’t take much action on it before pulling it down when the Sunday night game kicked off," Murray said Sunday night. It's The SuperBook's standard practice to take a game down when a team is involved in the Sunday night contest, as the Patriots were against the Seahawks.

"It's a short week for the Raiders and a tough traveling spot, with them going east in Week 1, then back here for the Monday Night Football game, and then back out to the East Coast for an early kickoff."

Opening line

Bills -3.5, Over/Under 48

Why the line moved

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: This game is still solid two-way at BetMGM Nevada on straight bets, though the Bills are down to -1. Stoneback said the book needs the Bills, but mainly to break up parlay play on the Rams.

UPDATE 9 A.M. ET SUNDAY: The Bills opened -3 at BetMGM Nevada and hit -2 Friday, where the line still is this morning. "Perfect two-way action," BetMGM's Scott Shelton said of point-spread play. "A few more tickets on the Rams, but money is really close."

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: DraftKings opened Buffalo -3 and reached -2 Tuesday, ticked up to -2.5 Thursday, then dropped to -1.5 Friday. The short underdog Rams are drawing 64 percent of bets and 55 percent of money. The total moved from 44.5 to 47.5 before dialing back to 46.5, though the Over still leads the way with 78 percent of tickets and 75 percent of money.

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The Bills are out of the gate 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS), but so are the Rams, who cashed in both games, including a 37-19 victory at Philadelphia on Sunday. Although the Rams are playing back east two consecutive weeks, the first move at The SuperBook was toward Los Angeles, from +3.5 to +3 Sunday night.

BACK TO TOP

Opening line

Steelers -6, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: The Steelers went from -4.5 to -3.5 to -4 at BetMGM Nevada, with some sharp play on the Texans. "It's not a big decision," Stoneback said. "Ticket count is 2.5/1 on the Steelers, and a lot of parlay money on the Steelers. We need the Texans for a little bit, to break up the parlays."

UPDATE 9 A.M. ET SUNDAY: The SuperBook opened the Steelers -6, got as low as -3.5 Tuesday, rebounded to -4.5 and just went to -4 this morning "Sharps and public are heavy on the Texans," SuperBook manager Reyna Hernandez said. "But we've got more parlay liability on Steelers." Hernandez said the public is also the Over, with the total moving from 45 to 46. 

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Pittsburgh opened -5.5 at FanDuel and tumbled to -3.5 by Monday morning, and the line has been Steelers -4 since Tuesday. The Steelers are landing 62 percent of spread bets, but point-spread dollars are almost dead even, with 51 percent going to Pittsburgh.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: DraftKings moved from Pittsburgh -6 Sunday night to -3.5 by Tuesday afternoon, then edged up to -4 later Tuesday. The Steelers are taking 57 percent of tickets and money on the spread, but it's apparent there's sharp play on the underdog Texans.

UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: The Steelers are down to -4 at The SuperBook, and manager/oddsmaker Eric Osterman explained why. "We took some sharp money on the Texans early, and the line steadily dropped after that," Osterman said, noting the market was going lower, as well.

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There was no movement Sunday night, though Murray expressed some sympathy for Houston, with its tough early-season schedule. "I don’t know what the Texans did to deserve an opening three weeks of at Chiefs, home against Ravens and at Steelers."

Opening line

Giants +4, Over/Under 40.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: FanDuel is seeing two-way spread action on this game, with the visiting 49ers taking 56 percent of tickets and 51 percent of money. The banged-up 49ers opened -4.5 and are down to -3 against a Giants team minus star running back Saquon Barkley (torn ACL).

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: After opening -4.5 at DraftKings, San Francisco is down to -3.5, thanks largely to a host of key injuries. Today, the 49ers announced that QB Jimmy Garoppolo is definitely out Sunday, as is wideout Tevin Coleman, and tight end George Kittle (MCL sprain) will sit for a second straight week. Further, running back Raheem Mostert (knee) was ruled out earlier in the week. Still, 70 percent of tickets and 61 percent of money are on the 49ers to win and cover against the Giants.

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There was no movement in this game Sunday night at The SuperBook, but Murray said setting the opening number was a little challenging, due to key injuries on both sides. There's concern that Giants running back Saquon Barkley may have torn an ACL in Sunday's loss to the Bears, so he could be lost for the season.

Likewise, 49ers star defensive end Nick Bosa is also thought to have a torn ACL, suffered in Sunday's win over the Jets. And QB Jimmy Garoppolo has a high ankle sprain, so his status for Week 3 is uncertain.

"Those guys (on the 49ers) are worth a couple points, and then Barkley is worth half-a-point to a point," Murray said, noting The SuperBook probably would've opened the Niners at -6 if not for the injury issues.

Opening line

Vikings +2.5, Over/Under 47.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 9 A.M. ET SUNDAY: "The public is loving the Titans," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said of the 2.5-point road favorite. "It's 2/1 tickets on the Titans, but the money is closer, really good two-way."

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Tennessee opened -2.5 at DraftKings and quickly dropped to -1.5 Sunday night, before rebounding to -2.5 Monday. It's all Titans on the spread, with 85 percent of tickets and 88 percent of dollars on the short road favorite.

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The SuperBook gave Tennessee the nod as short road chalk, but the first move was to the home 'dog Minnesota, as this line moved to Titans -2 Sunday night.

BACK TO TOP

Opening line

Browns -6.5, Over/Under 44

Why the line moved

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: The Browns opened -6.5 and reached -7.5 at FanDuel, where the home team is taking 74 percent of spread bets and 65 percent of spread cash.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Cleveland moved from -6 to -7.5 by Thursday at DraftKings, but the betting splits aren't bearing out that move to this point. Washington is getting 61 percent of tickets and 67 percent of money bet.

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There was no movement Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Opening line

Eagles -5.5, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: FanDuel took a $26,000 play o Eagles -3.5 (-130) earlier today, helping them move back to -5.5, after bottoming out at -4 following an opening number of -6. Philadelphia is landing 64 percent of tickets and 68 percent of money on the spread. And on the total, currently 46.5, the Over is drawing 84 percent of bets and 89 percent of money.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Philadelphia is down 1.5 points from Sunday at DraftKings, opening at -6 and dipping to -4.5. But the spread is seeing two-way action, with 54 percent of tickets on the Bengals and 54 percent of money on the Eagles. And bettors love the Over, which is getting 80 percent of bets and 89 percent of dollars, lifting the total from 45.5 to 47.5.

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With the opener of 5.5 a relatively dead number, it appears The SuperBook just wanted to see which way bettors would take it. And they took it toward the Eagles, as the line ticked up to -6 Sunday night.

Opening line

Falcons -3, Over/Under 47.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Even though the Falcons are down to -2.5, after peaking at -4, BetMGM Nevada is going to need the Bears. "Money is 6/1 on the Falcons, ticket count is 3/1," Stoneback said, noting sharp play on Chicago brought the line down, but it's been overwhelmed by public dollars. "And parlays are heavy on Atlanta, too."

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Atlanta moved from -3 to -3.5 a couple of times this week, most recently early Friday, and it's one-sided action at DraftKings. Point-spread ticket count and money are both running more than 4/1 in favor of the Falcons. The total has been stuck at 47.5 since Tuesday, after opening at 48, although the Over is 77 percent of early bets and 73 percent of early money.

This line saw no movement Sunday night, but many observers think the Atlanta sideline should see some movement this week – as in, coach Dan Quinn should be fired. The Falcons blew a 39-24 fourth-quarter lead at Dallas, including allowing an onside kick recovery that led to the Cowboys' game-winning field goal as time expired. That marked the only time Dallas led Sunday.

BACK TO TOP

Opening line

Colts -9, Over/Under 43.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: The Colts opened -9.5 at Circa Sports and climbed to -11.5. "Indy is very popular with both the public and the sharps," said Jeff Benson, sportsbook operations manager for Circa Sports. "The line steamed to -11.5, and we'll need the Jets, just like the rest of the city."

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET FRIDAY: "This spread has been steaming throughout the week," SuperBook oddsmaker Cameron Coombs said of the Colts' leap from -9 to -12. Coombs said that had to do with Indianapolis' performance last week, stifling Minnesota in a 28-11 victory.

UPDATE 5:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Before lunchtime Monday, Indianapolis was already up 1.5 points at The SuperBook, giving 10.5 points against New York. "The Colts saw a little bit of public action early at 9.5, but this one also moved because of the market," Osterman said. "And 10.5 is also a better number for teasers, so that 7-pointers won't cross 3."

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Indianapolis (1-1 SU and ATS) rolled over visiting Minnesota 28-11 laying 3.5 points Sunday, while New York fell to 0-2 SU and ATS in a 31-13 home loss to San Francisco. It seems like this number is high, but The SuperBook went a little higher still Sunday night, with the first move to Colts -9.5.

Opening line

Chargers -6.5, Over/Under 44

Why the line moved

UPDATE 3:40 P.M. ET SUNDAY: The Chargers went from -6.5 to -7.5 and back to -6.5 at FanDuel, but they are attracting 63 percent of tickets and money on the spread. The total opened at 44.5, bottom out at 43 and is now 44, with 65 percent of bets and 59 percent of money on the Over.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Los Angeles went from -6.5 to -7 Monday at DraftKings, then back to -6.5 Tuesday, where the line remains now. The Chargers are collecting 75 percent of bets and 79 percent of dollars on the spread so far.

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There was no line movement at The SuperBook on Sunday night, although Los Angeles was certainly impressive as it fell just short to Kansas City in overtime earlier in the day.

Opening line

Cardinals -5.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Arizona dropped from -6.5 to -5.5 at Circa Sports, but bettors are more interested in the total. "We've seen Overs come through in the first couple of weeks," Benson said. "The total was up 2.5 points off the opener, and then there was some market resistance at Under 56, so we're now at 55.5."

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Arizona has spent most of the week at -5.5 at DraftKings, save for overnight Sunday into Monday, when the Cardinals were at -6. But if early betting is any indication, don't be surprised to see this number head north again, as the Cards are landing a whopping 90 percent of early tickets and money.

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Another game that opens at 5.5 and quickly moves toward the favorite. Arizona is out to a 2-0 SU and ATS start, and early bettors were impressed enough to help move the line to -6.5 Sunday night.

BACK TO TOP

Opening line

Broncos +5.5, Over/Under 43

Why the line moved

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: The Buccaneers opened -6 at Circa Sports, dipped to -5.5, then returned to -6 this weekend. "We need the Bucs small," Benson said. "This number was pretty efficient. There hasn't been much movement. The majority of money on the buy side has been at -5.5 on the favorite and +6 on the 'dog."

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Tom Brady and the Buccaneers opened -6 and are now -5.5, even though the Broncos won't have QB Drew Lock (shoulder) nor wideout Courtland Sutton, who's done for the year with a torn ACL. The key injuries just keep piling up for Denver, which lost superstar linebacker Von Miller (ankle) for the year before the season kicked off. For this line to still be 5.5, total handle must be pretty light so far, as Tampa Bay is drawing 90 percent of early spread tickets and money. And it appears there's sharp play on the Under, which has 62 percent of the money on just 25 percent of the tickets. The total dropped from 44.5 to 43 by Thursday.

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The Broncos could very well be without QB Drew Lock, who suffered a shoulder injury in Sunday's loss to Pittsburgh. So another game that opens 5.5 moved toward the favorite, in this case the visiting Buccaneers, who went to -6 Sunday night.

Opening line

Seahawks -4.5, Over/Under 55.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Benson said Seattle went from -3.5 to -4.5 quickly last Sunday at Circa Sports, and today touched -6 before going back to -5.5. "It's been good two-way, no real need at the moment," Benson said. "Seattle is getting a lot of respect in the market."

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Seattle opened -4.5 at FanDuel, had a cup of coffee at -3.5 Monday, then surged to -5 midweek and stayed there through Saturday night. That said, the matchup is seeing two-way action, with the Seahawks attracting 51 percent of tickets and 60 percent of money.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: This line has mostly toggled between Seahawks -4.5 and -5 all week at DraftKings, where it's currently -5. Seattle is attracting 62 percent of tickets and 57 percent of money. Early bettors are also on the Over, with a 3/1 ticket count and 4/1 money ratio, pushing the total from 55.5 to 57.

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"We opened the Seahawks -4.5 and took some money on Dallas right away," Murray said, noting the game came off the board shortly thereafter since the Seahawks were playing the Sunday nighter against the Patriots. "There should be good two-way action here. Gotta keep a close eye on the injury report for Dallas."

Opening line

Saints -3.5, Over/Under 51.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: The Saints opened -3 and are up to -3.5 (even) at BetMGM's Nevada sportsbooks, but that's not illustrating the need, as the public is all over the visiting Packers. "We need the Saints," BetMGM's Jeff Stoneback said. "Ticket count is 2.5/1 and money a little over 2/1 on Green Bay. And it's almost 3/1 Packers money on parlays. The Saints are coming off a dull effort Monday night. All the talk is that Drew Brees is washed up. I guess the bettors believe it."

UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SATURDAY: FanDuel opened New Orleans -4.5 and dropped to -2.5 a couple of times early in the week. Since Tuesday, the line has stuck at -3, save for a few hours Thursday at -3.5. Green Bay is proving a popular public road play on the spread, getting 84 percent of bets and 65 percent of money through Saturday. Bettors like the Packers even more on the moneyline, at 88 percent of tickets and 70 percent of cash. The total moved around quite a bit, from 51.5 to 54.5 and multiple spots in between. It's currently 53.5, and 82 percent of tickets and money are on the Over.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: New Orleans moved from -3.5 to -3 at DraftKings, thanks to hefty early support on road 'dog Green Bay, which is landing 80 percent of tickets and 67 percent of dollars on the spread so far. In fact, bettors are hitting Green Bay moneyline, too, with 87 percent of bets and 95 percent of money. The total opened 51.5 and reached 53.5 before peeling back to 52.5, but it's one-sided action, with nine of every 10 tickets and dollars on the Over.

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"We opened Saints -3.5 and took some money both ways," Murray said of action on Sunday night. "The Packers look like they’re a lot better than we realized coming into the season, but we don’t want to overreact too much to their wins over the Vikings and Lions."

Opening line

Ravens -3, Over/Under 53.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET MONDAY: A couple of hours before kickoff, the line remains Ravens -3.5, where it has been pinned pretty much all week at BetMGM books. However, the Chiefs are landing 73 percent of tickets and 67 percent of cash on the spread. The total moved from 53.5 to 54.5 and could see more movement pre-kick, with 85 percent of bets and 91 percent of money on the Over. "Chiefs-Ravens has a Super Bowl feel to the end of Week 3," Bet MGM sportsbook manager Matt Cosgriff said. "Viewership is expected to be up for this featured event, and so will BetMGM’s handle, as this will be the most-wagered game of the week.”

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: DraftKings opened the Ravens -3 and got to -3.5 last Monday, where the line stuck all week. However, bettors are on the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, who are attracting 71 percent of tickets and 68 percent of money on the spread. In fact, underdog Kansas City is getting even more support on the moneyline, with 75 percent of bets and 78 percent of cash. The total moved from 52.5 to 54.5, and bettors are expecting offensive fireworks, putting 92 percent of bets and 93 percent of dollars on the Over.

UPDATE 7 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The Ravens opened -3 at DraftKings and have spent almost all week at -3.5, save for literally a few minutes Monday at -2.5. But bettors are playing "Hail to the Chiefs," with Kansas City attracting 78 percent of bets and 76 percent of money on the spread. And bettors fully expect a shootout between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, with the total already going from 52.5 to 54, thanks to 94 percent of bets and 95 percent of money landing on the Over.

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"These are pretty clearly the two best teams in the NFL, and this looks to be the game of the year, at least as far as the regular season is concerned," Murray said. "We have the Ravens as a slightly better team than the Chiefs and the home-field advantage bumps it to Baltimore as a 3-point favorite to open. There was no discussion on this line. Everyone in the room made it Baltimore -3. It looks like all the other books agreed."

And as of late Sunday night, there was no line movement, either.

Where can I bet on the NFL?

Whether it’s in Las Vegas or online, every sportsbook under the sun offers Week 3 NFL point spreads, plus a cornucopia of other NFL odds. Check out the NFL football odds at the best sportsbooks available where you live. **video

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If you've ever been in a Las Vegas sportsbook, you've likely crossed paths with Patrick. A proud resident of Sin City, he's one of the most connected sources in sports betting, tapping into industry contacts around the globe to bring you the opening lines, odds adjustments, and action reports – directly from inside the biggest casinos in Vegas. His infamous "tweetstorms" and video reports right from the sportsbook floor give you the gaming edge to beat the bookies.

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