Sunday Night Football picks & predictions: Packers vs Saints

Aaron Jones destroyed the Lions last week for 236 total yards and 3 TDs, now facing a Saints D that coughs up 28.5 points per game.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Sep 24, 2020 • 05:36 ET
Aaron Jones NFL Green Bay Packers
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The NFL betting board has a ton of great matchups in Week 3 including a Sunday Night Football showdown between two of the NFC's top teams as the New Orleans Saints host the Green Bay Packers.

The Packers are 2-0 and fresh off a 42-21 rout of the Detroit Lions while the Saints are 1-1 after losing as a favorite against the Las Vegas Raiders last Monday. 

NFL odds have the Saints as 3-point favorites for Sunday with the Over/Under installed at 52.5. We bring you our best picks and predictions for the Packers vs. Saints on Sunday Night Football, September 27 with kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET.  

Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints betting preview

Weather

This contest will be played indoors at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans. Be sure to monitor the weather conditions for ALL games with our NFL weather info.

Key Injuries

Packers: Cory Linsley C (Probable), Kenny Clark DT (Questionable), Davante Adams WR (Doubtful), Lane Taylor (Out), Devin Funchess WR (Out)
Saints: Andrus Peat G (Probable), Trey Hendrickson DE (Questionable), Terron Armstead OT (Questionable), Malcolm Brown DT (Questionable), Marcus Davenport DE (Questionable), Michael Thomas WR (Out), Kiki Alonso (Out)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting Trend to Know

The Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Saints.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

The Packers have looked downright dominant so far this year, leading the league in points (42.5) and yards (505) per game. All-Pro quarterback Aaron Rodgers has sizzled, throwing for 604 yards and six touchdowns, while running back Aaron Jones totaled 236 yards and three scores last week against Detroit. 

The Saints were also supposed to have one of the best offenses in the league led by reigning Offensive Player of the Year in wide receiver Michael Thomas. Unfortunately, Thomas is out with an ankle injury while future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees has looked pedestrian so far this season. 

The Saints are 21st in the league with just 347.5 yards per game over the first two contests of the year, and their offense just doesn't look the same without an elite weapon like Thomas.

While the Pack might also be without their top wideout in Davante Adams (listed as questionable for Sunday), he missed four games in 2019 and they still averaged 32.5 ppg in his absence. Look for New Orleans to have a difficult time keeping up with the explosive Green Bay offense and back the Packers on the spread. 

PREDICTION: Green Bay +3

 

Over/Under pick

Although the Packers offense has been terrific, their defense has surrendered 27.5 ppg which ranks just 21st in the league. The Saints have been even worse giving up 28.5 ppg.

While both teams rank in the Top-10 of the league in defense based on yardage, struggles in a few key categories have allowed opponents to sustain drives and capitalize on scoring opportunities.

The Saints and Packers rank among the bottom-10 teams in the league in opponent third-down percentage. And when it comes to red-zone defense, the Packers are 30th in the NFL while the Saints are 31st.

With the Over 4-0 in the Packers' last four games, and 4-1 in the Saints' previous five contests, back it again on Sunday night. 

PREDICTION: Over 52.5 (-110)

Player Prop

With Thomas out of action for New Orleans, and Brees failing to click with offseason acquisition Emmanuel Sanders, look for the Saints to lean on their running game against the Packers on Sunday night.

Saints running back Alvin Kamara carried the ball 13 times for 79 yards and two scores against the Raiders last week and now takes on a Green Bay run defense that has allowed 5.2 yards per rush this year and ranked 27th in the league in rushing DVOA in 2019. Take the Over on his rushing yards.

PREDICTION: Alvin Kamara rushing yards - Over 59.5 (-120)

Packers vs Saints betting card

  • Green Bay +3 (-110)
  • Over 52.5 (-110)
  • Alvin Kamara rushing yards - Over 59.5 (-120)
NFL Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NFL Packers vs. Saints picks, you could win $56.82 on a $10 bet?

Use our NFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where can I bet on the NFL?

You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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