After two weeks, the Minnesota Vikings could be the biggest NFL betting disappointment after starting the year 0-2 and being outscored 71-45. It won’t get any easier for Mike Zimmer’s team as they host Ryan Tannehill and the 2-0 Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon.
Without 2019 offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski and WR Stefon Diggs, Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins ranks 34th in QBR after two weeks. Meanwhile, Tannehill has a 120-plus QBR, which is the fourth-best heading into Week 3. The Titans opened as 1.5-road favorites with the line moving quickly to -2.5. The total opened at 45.5 and has since pushed skyward to 49.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Titans vs Vikings on September 27 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Tennessee Titans vs Minnesota Vikings betting preview
Weather
This game will be played indoors at the US Bank Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other NFL games with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Titans: Derick Roberson LB (Out), AJ Brown WR (Out).
Vikings: Tajae Sharpe WR (Out), Troy Dye LB (Out), Mike Hughes CB (Out), Anthony Barr LB (Out), Danielle Hunter DL (Out)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Titans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as the favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Vikings.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Kirk Cousins threw three interceptions and was sacked three times last week against an Indianapolis team that surrendered three passing TDs to Gardner Minshew in Week 1. The Minnesota QB is just 30-for-51 for 357 yards passing as he tries to adapt to life without Stefanski and Diggs.
The Vikes will also be without linebacker Anthony Barr, who is their defensive captain and grades positively in coverage. Rookie Troy Dye would be next up to take his place, but he is also questionable with a foot injury. He will desperately be needed to stop a Tennessee offense that may look to get its run game going after gaining just 3.7 yards per rush this year (27th).
The Vikes allowed rookie running back Jonathan Taylor to top 100 rushing yards last week and gave up 4.9 yards per carry to the Packers in Week 1. Last year’s rushing leader, Derrick Henry, has been fed the rock often this year as the big back has 56 carries for 200 yards. The Vikes don’t have a defensive lineman that ranks in the Top 50 percent in run coverage at his position, as Mike Zimmer’s usually-stout defense is dealing with massive turnover.
Henry should dictate the pace of play, which should open up shots for Tannehill and the play-action passing game, even likely without receiver AJ Brown for a second straight week. Henry could also help protect Titans -2.5 bettors from the backdoor loss as Henry is a beast in clock-killing mode.
PREDICTION: Tennessee -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Time of possession could be the killer for bettors looking to hit the Over. Minnesota comes into the matchup with a league-worst 33 percent in time of possession and is converting its third downs at 33 percent, which ranks in the bottom four. The Titans sit seventh in third-down conversion percentage and that's with Henry having a yards-per-carry that is 1.1 yards fewer than his career average of 4.6.
Averaging only 48 plays per game, the Vikings will have to make some serious adjustments to their offense going forward. The key to success for the Vikings is to get RB Dalvin Cook more involved as he has only 26 rushes this year. Both backs could see heavy usage in this match, which could eat the clock and/or leave plenty of third downs to pick up, a weakness of Minnesota.
With a lack of field-stretching wideouts on both sidelines, we have only one way to look at this total which is at the perfect number for an Under.
PREDICTION: Under 49 (-110)
Player prop pick
The Titans defense picked off Minshew twice in Week 2 and finished 2019 with nearly one INT per game. Even if Tennessee CB Malcolm Butler sits, this is still a great coverage secondary that could have plenty of chances to pick off Cousins. If the Titans get up early and force the Vikes to play catchup, Cousins will struggle with nobody to throw to but Adam Thielen.
A juicy play for sure, but betting against a QB who has been making terrible decisions this year, including taking a safety in each of his first two games, is the smart move here.
PREDICTION: Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 interceptions (-105)
Titans vs Vikings betting card
- Tennessee -2.5 (-110)
- Under 49 (-110)
- Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 interceptions (-105)
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