any numbers yet for Winky & Williams?

Actually Vegas usually throws a dummy line out, and the public makes the line. Wherever the money goes that's where the line inflates. It's not like football or basketball where they make sharp lines. Why do you think Mosley was almost a 5-1 dog  was Mosley washed up and ready to just lay down for margarito? The PUBLIC made margarito some superstar, when he's LOST to every "pure boxer".

Better yet I do agree Paul Williams leaves himself open, but he doesn't always use his height to the best of his ability. He doesn't always sit down on his punches either. If you see the re-match with Quintana he sat down on his punch and ko'd Quintana and got him out in the first round. That's the Paul Williams you will see.

I remember another fighter who didn't get up for "easy fights" yes one who I think is one of the very best Floyd Mayweather. Many of his fights against lesser opponents were less than stellar he looked bored. Yet on PPV or BIG fights he punished his opponents.  There is one fight Mayweather over looked Castillo #1 fight which I believe castillo won, from there Floyd learned his lesson and never over looked fighters. I think Paul Williams learned it from the first Quintana fight.

Paul Williams is NOT one Dimensonal, he has an array of punches moreso than many boxers I see around. His defense can be suspect at times, but they chose Winky for a reason it's a "safe fight". Winky will bore you but he won't hurt you.

You think 2 years off isn't a lot, even for a youngster they need a TUNE UP, at 37 Winky needs a tune up BIG TIME. Look at Winky's last few fights, his DEFENSE is slacking off, he's gets tagged by jabs and many other shots now. Remember DEFENSE then Speed GOES in a boxer first. You've already seen the Defense slip with Winky, nothing against him he's 37 his heart isn't in boxing he's been picking up decent paydays for staying in the background,he will do what De la Hoya did, take his first and last  beating.

You look at Paul Williams and you say no defense, when throwing 100 + punches a round defense is hard to do. Winky can play defense throwing very limited punches.

Anyway you slice this Paul Williams wins Easily, Wrinkly .. oops Winky will wear down in a few rounds, ring rust is NOT something you can EVER get rid  of during sparring. Even if you sparred 8 billion rounds. Well unless you're Mike Tyson coming out of prison and fighting Peter Mckneeley which Paul Williams isn't. I expect Winky to do the OPPOSITE of what he's always done, he will be entertaining for a few rounds finally opening up because his career is downhill and after 4 rounds he will wear down and just be a sparring partner until either the ref stops it or Paul sits down on a Punch and sends Winky back to the craps table. I still wouldn't bet the KO, I don't the line will be super high, take Paul with the WIN not the KO.

Take Paul Williams for the WIN at whatever the line :) Take your winnings while at Vegas and get your Winky AutoGraph at the craps table 3 hours later :)

First thing is...
This will go the distance.
The over will be perhaps 1.05
just like Nadal. Sure thing.

Second thing is...
This fight will be hard to score.
Winky has the best turtle guard in all boxing history.
At the end, punisher will have thrown millions of punches into that guard,
and most of em will be "ambigious".
Thats to say, the judges won't to rate as a hit or not.
So, the judges could end up with very different scores.
Very hard.

His defense is not what it used to be. A turtle cannot win a round if he's hiding in his shell and the other one is PUNCHING that shell. The shell may not crack but at least the one punching the shell is not hiding and judges score on aggression, there will not be "very different score cards" it will be a decent fight for maybe 4 rounds tops, as WINKY like every old fighter will brawl more. Since he's lost his great defense, he has no OPTION but to open up a BIT which is better for all of us, because gold help us Winky is his prime was a snooze fest. Paul will win either way you slice it.

And there is "no such thing as a SURE THING" talking like that is silly because there is SURE THING in any sport. If it was a sure thing you would be putting your house up and borrowing money because.. well it's guaranteed! :) I'm just messing with you the way you worded it sounds like it's a can't miss.. I know what you mean this is probably a distance fight.

I do see WINKY opening up more especially since we know Paul leaves himself open a bit at times, Paul CAN be hit we've seen that many times. Winky and Jermaine Taylor don't have the "finish" factor in them even if they have a man hurt.

Again I think Paul will finish Winky, assuming Winky does choose to exchange which I believe he will. Since that is a IF, people who want to win, LAY the MONEY on PAUL Williams.

Check all my picks, boxing I know, I love it I breathe it. Paul is the Pick here.

Good analysis I agree Paul wins it fairly easily. 2 years off and 37 years old puts Winky at a big disadvantage.  Also, in this day and age (as opposed to years past) if there is a round where no one actually lands a solid punch, the winner will be the one who threw the most punches.  Essentially, you will win the round for INeffective aggressiveness i.e. no points for defense without offense.  In the past this was not true as demonstrated by the famous round that all report Willie Pep won without throwing a punch.