B Hop and underdog? Let's get serious

Are you serious? he is at +110. I love it. Have to take B hop here.

That's to LOW. Chad Dawson will absolutely dominate this fight. He holds all physical advantages and is far technically superior to Bernard at this point.

nobody is technically superior to hopkins, that's why he is doing what he is doing at his age, physically dawson has the edge right now,slightly,  very interested to see how this one turns out,  but will keep my money out of it,

Before Dawson lost he was ranked #4 on the pound-for-pound list (I forget the exact source, but it was one of the top boxing resources. I say that because I don't waste my time with uncredited websites or magazines). I always felt Dawson was one of the few boxers that was very well balanced throughout his career and seemed to improve in different aspects with every fight. Again, I will go to the video replays of Hopkins and Dawsons last several fights. It's hard to say anyone is superior technically than Hopkins but possible but I think stating that anyone is far superior technically than Hopkins is a stretch of exaggeration. The biggest issue I have betting Hopkins is not going to be something I find in replaying past bouts but he is 46 (in superb shape and performing like athletes do in their mid or late 20s, considered their prime and usually physically is for most athletes) and at what point does he start slowing down below competition level or possibly decline overnight. Yes he is the ageless wonder and works hard and has good genetics but also remember he always has been the master of defense and even though he has fought many rounds he rarely has been hurt or winded in any round and therefore this plays a major role why he is fighting at age 46 better than most guys in their 20s. Julio Cesar Chavez was considered ancient by many and in decline when he lost to Randall although he was only 31. Also, not just taking punches causes damage you have to consider the punches you throw in a fight is different than training in the gym. Under such body stress and fatigue while absorbing punishment your body deteriorates as you overuse it. Hopkins never took many big shots, never had high punching output and rarely seemed fatigued at any point. So I don't want to play the guessing game about the longevity of a warrior like Hopkins.

Hopkins is the ultimate inspiration to older athletes as was Randy Couture was in MMA. If I knew Hopkins was going to have the physical ability to perform as well or better than his last several fights then I would most likely study this fight very in-depth. Only cause it's rare to get nearly an even money fight with two excellent fighters where you can analyze the fight and not worry about if they are well prepared and properly trained. I would like to hear any breakdowns of the fight from anyone rather than just personal fighter traits. I doubt I will invest a large sum into this bout, so it's likely I won't invest the time to watch replays and follow training camp news. I will however watch this fight barring something very important happens. With that said, good luck to those betting and for those who don't, watch and enjoy the fight because both fighters are going to bring it!

 

If you think thats too low you would have loved to get Dawson at +200

Now you now how I fealt when he was 4-1 vs Trinadad. B Hop has been value his hole carrier, because HBO would always bad mouth him in his fights and it would brain wash most, glad they did not get to you! Great luck.

 
 Zouk, I did like your write up, that is good stuff. I like reading stuff like that to see what others who know the sport more than me are thinking.
 Hollywood.  WHy do you think that HBO would do that,is it to create a Villian?
 Also, Hopkins is so crafty!!! He can adapt to any situation and knows all the tricks of the trade.
 I know they are the same height but doesnt Dawson seem to have longer arms that he has to whip forward?

Belieive HBO always bad mouthed Hopkins because they had investments in Jones, De la Hoya, Trinidad and others. Even George Foreman would bad mouth Hopkins and Foreman rarley speaks bad about anybody. Hopkins killed there hole crop.lol. As fare as Dawson goes, I'm still watching tape. What I do notice is that Dawson does slip the (lead righ)t hand very well, and at time thats Hopkins biggest weapon.I have not missed a Hopkins figth since Joe Lipsey, which to me is still one of the greatest combanation knock outs ever. 

I just don't see how Dawson wins. His arms are so lanky that his punches take long to be delivered. Like a quarterback with a long delivery is the best way for me to assimilate what I mean.I think people are worried that Hopkins is 46 and that he is going to slow down. However, he doesn't fight like he is 46. If you were talking about Glen Johnson and being slower due to age, I would agree with you, but Hopkins has not shown that yet. I may bet the most I ever have on Hopkins. Where is this fight at? that may play a role in how large I bet on Hopkins. 

Hopkins has two solid ingredients to beating Dawson:

#1 Movement. When Hopkins is on his toes and all over the place, there is no fighter in history that can beat him. His legs have slowed down do to age thats why he gets caught a bit now, but he still has it better then most. Movement, B hop, Movement.

#2 Punch output. Hopkins has been  over 500 punches in his lastest fights, thats incredibel. vs Pascal 530 landed 175. vs. Calzaghe 468 landed 127. Now Dawson vs Pascal 240 punches 62 landed. Dawson is have as busy as Hopkins and with the public finally on the B Hop bandwagon do you think the judges will f*** him?  Hopkins by decsion. 

 

Goldfisch: Thanks for the compliment as I do post with the best intentions on providing accurate facts, analysis and my profound skill for entertaining (LOL).
I was always a big fan of Trinidad and even though both fighters were way over-the-hill, I went to see Jones vs Trinidad in 2008. Also, when Hopkins fought Trinidad, for those that remember the fight was originally suppose to be two weeks earlier but was postponed because of the tragedy of 9/11. It wasn't largely publicized but Hopkin's camp demanded Trinidad's hands to be re-wrapped as they felt they were wrapped in an incorrect fashion. Another factor was Trinidad had precisely timed (as most fighters do) his weight to be ready for 09/15 and the two week postponement had a larger effect than was noted. Regardless, Hopkins fought a great tactical fight and I feel the outcome would have been the same but possibly the TKO might have been avoided (as Felix's father entered the ring causing the referee to stop the contest).
Back to Hopkins and value fights. Pavlik was -400 going into the contest and a prop of Hopkins winning by decision was +650. Knowing Pavlik's one dimensional style (has never needed to alter his style during a contest) and being inexperienced versus great boxers I felt Hopkins being a master boxer would easily expose Pavlik. Also, losing his last three of five bouts (two decision losses to Taylor that were very close and one against Calzaghe even though two were split decisions and all three fights could have been easily scored for Hopkins) caused doubt and speculation to Hopkins credibility (even after recently beating Tarver and Wright who has beat the best fighters and hadn't lost in 8 years) and the consideration his skill set was diminishing and age was catching up to him. Many felt Pavlik would KO Hopkins and possibly severely hurt him. That was a fight I had non-bettors wager taking Hopkins +300 and big. The type of fighters Hopkins have had difficulty with are fast handed athletic mobile fighters that also had power (Roy Jones Jr 1st fight during Roy's prime, Taylor both times during his peak, and Calzaghe). Big punchers that aren't mobile like Pavlik are targets for Hopkins. Winky is a defensive fighter that caused most fighters big problems, but perfect for Hopkins. Trinidad walked forwards always and wasn't able to fight moving backwards or laterally. All Hopkins losses were against two handed fast punching mobile fighters. The reason is Hopkins being one of the best tactical fighters ever would plan an attack and only fighters with great athletic ability were able to offset or escape by connecting with punches and moving.
Not to get off topic but as we were discussing value, I was stunned when Martinez (+125) opened as an underdog to Pavlik. Another factor was the line was only -135 for over 11.5 rounds. I had to check constant updates for training camp news as when you get a fight an the odds seem to good to be true, that's usually the universal case for everything. I'm careful with overs, especially with fighters who fight inside and clinch where headbutts often occur. Sergio is a constant moving fighter so I also placed a decent wager on the over and even got a parlay to go through as I felt Pavlik's chin could take Sergio's best and also Sergio was very aware that Pavlik could end the fight with one shot, and contrary to public views this factor helps fights go to a decision because it causes a fighter to be cautious even when dominating.
So to boxing bettors, I hope this thread and post helps shows there is often great value in underdogs. Knowing style matchups to look for are the foundation for finding wagers for underdogs who in reality should be the favorite.

Also the fight is at the Staples Center in LA. Hopkins is 6"1, 75 inch reach. Dawson is 6"1, 76.5 inch reach. His arms probably a quarter inch "lankier" than Hopkins, if that. 

Walk, it seems as though you are offended? why so? 

Dawson is a bad matchup for Hopkins. Hopkins only chance is to KO Dawson late in the fight which I don't see happening.

If you look at Hopkins career he has had trouble with boxers that had fast hands. Even vs DLH he had some issues but he just happened to be bigger. Roy Jones and Jermain Taylor are reasons to put your money on Dawson.

I love Hopkins but I can't bet on him in this fight

frank the tank: I'm not proclaiming a copyright on statements in my posts but if you read mine 6 days earlier and 5 posts before  yours on this thread, I posted: "The type of fighters Hopkins have had difficulty with are fast handed athletic mobile fighters that also had power (Roy Jones Jr 1st fight during Roy's prime, Taylor both times during his peak, and Calzaghe)." Big punchers that aren't mobile like Pavlik are targets for Hopkins. Winky is a defensive fighter that caused most fighters big problems, but perfect for Hopkins. Trinidad moved forwards constantly and wasn't able to fight moving backwards or laterally. All Hopkins losses were against two handed fast punching mobile fighters. The reason Hopkins has difficulties with certain fighters (being one of the best tactical fighters ever) is that he would plan an attack and only fighters with great athletic ability were able to offset or escape by connecting with punches and moving. Hopkins has become much more offensive in his latter career, but he was always known for starting slow. Against fast handed fast footed boxers Hopkins slow starts works negatively, where as against average speed fighters he has his game plan within a few rounds.

I only read the first post

This should be a very close fight..

Just heard Hopkins speak on the replay of Friday Night Fights and he is already "Punch Drunk". Its a shame that happens to boxers but it is what happens when your brain takes that punishment repeatedly. After this fight I hope B- Hop retires to save his brain, even though it may be too late.

Definitely will be pulling for Hopkins here, Dawson is such a let down. 

TomBrady12: Why is Dawson a let down? He won 8 straight championship bouts. He fought an undefeated opponent and Tarver and Johnson both twice. He said publicly he preferred not to rematch Johnson because it's almost a no win situation. Johnson the old journeyman is expected to lose but fights relentless and has heavy hands. Sites and magazines had him 4th as current top pound-for-pound, which I felt was to high.