Bets for the weekend (MMAcapper need not read, he's already got a copy)

To start:

Cazares / Povetkin : 2 to win .5

Added:

Cazares v Guardia < 9.5  $25 to win  $20

Cazares / Povetkin /  Sylvester $50 to win $17

I agry on Al.Po. But this might just be an interesting test, as Eddie might be a tough out, b/c he is fairly slick, & does have some degree of talent as a pure Boxer goes. Eddie is up a bit in Weight, at a near Career high. Clearly Eddie has a major Experience edge, nearly 3:1 in fact, Eddie does not have a lot of Power, which we see in the fact he only has 2 true KO's. Al.Po. gets the Voltage nod, though he is a bit of a an accumulation of punches TKO guy himself. Al.Po. has minor Reach & Size edges, and he is the hometown Jerry fighter. Always makes me think the visitor needs a stoppage to be sure, I doubt Eddied has that in him. But I'm very curious to see who wins this mini-me Tourney to get tested by Wlad. I say Al.Po. does win, but a Decision Prop for Eddie might not be the worst try either.

Agry on Hugo. Hugo's resume looks to be far superior to KG's, as KG tends to be beaten stepping up.

GLA!
bigeiii

No plays for me this week, talk about a lame boxing weekend.  I would love to see Eddie win in Germany, but I don't think it will happen.  I think he will be very competitive, maybe losing by a couple of rounds, but the cards will probably reflect a wider margin than that.

I did go ahead and take out a future B-Hop play, because I'm not sure what that line will do closer to the date of the fight.

Future:
1 unit on Hopkins (+250)

I also went ahead and played Sasquatch's over.

2.8 units over 10.5 rounds (-140) in Valuev-White Wolf

Threw SS in as well, same homefield reasoning, though he appears to enjoy more separation from his competitor than Al.Po. does.

GLA!
bigeiii

Hey Fullbrights, you got any outcome Prop thoughts on Al.Po. vs. Eddie; maybe a Total lean along the same lines please? TIA, if you can.

GLA!
bigeiii

Hugo took care of his business.


bigeiii

I'm sure some of you will love to hear this... I lost 14.5k on Federer the other day chasing my Karmazin loss. Bringing the total losses over the last week to 22.4k. Pure stupidity. I'm calling it now, but I'm sure some of you won't be able to resist adding to it. One thing you can bet on, is that I'll NEVER bet on tennis again.  EVER.  I mean until my dying day.  My wagers will be quite a bit smaller for a while now unless I'm LOVING something.  Hopefully I'll be able to build it back up again, but we'll see.  The going will be slower. I've been a bit lucky with several matches. All in all I've still got in the bank what I came to Thailand with over 4 months ago, so it's not all bad...Gambling on boxing has paid for the trip thus far.



I'll be placing a small wager on the Povetkin by decision prop if it looks right.  The over is at like -250, so I'm guessing it will come out at about -150 / -170 range?? But now Chambers coming in heavy has got me double thinking this and Povetkin does have a fairly high KO % and has KO'd his last 8 of 10.  But to be fair to Chambers I think this will be Povetkin's biggest test.

Experience wise professionally Chambers has more fights, but amateur wise Chambers doesn't even come close to Povetkin who was 120-7 and won quite a few championships.  All 7 losses were avenged.  I believe Povetkin has fought a higher caliber of opponents compared to Chambers also.  Chambers showing against a bloated Brock wasn't all that great squeaking by with a SD and 115-113 on 2 of the judges cards.

Cazares v Guardia < 9.5   This was a 50/50 shot for me as was indicated by the low wager.  From reading the rbr it actually sounded like it was a bit closer than the cards suggested, but again...Didn't see it, so can't say for sure.

Did you see the Cazares fight Big?   How did it go?

No Sir. Just reading the wire reports. Reads like Hugo won a clean, clear cut decision by a convincing margin.


bigeiii

Well, I remember you talking shit to Fullbrights about how much more you made than him in a short time. I mentioned you are reckless. So, now you lost most of what you won IN A TWO WEEK Period? That's the difference with a guy with decent money management and you. Hopefully you learned something from losing so much.

 

I never claimed to be great with money management.  I knew someday I'd lose...That happened with Karmazin.  What I didn't know is that I'd be so dumb as to bet 14.5k on a tennis match where the dog was live and I knew it to some extent.

My biggest beef with Fullbrights and others WAS that they thought I was lying, and withholding losses or not actually gambling what I said I was putting down.  I never started shit with anyone who wasn't accusing me of lying or withholding losses.

I am new at this game and had a phenomenal streak.  One bad large bet and I lost my head and tried to win it all back in the same week, which obviously backfired.  Something you can bet on is that I HAVE learned more than a couple things from this.  I honestly don't know whether I'll be able to come back to the point where I was, but it's going be the old college try and we'll see what happens.  Regardless of that...I'm still way ahead of the game...somewhere in the realm of 25k over the last 15 months.  We can only see if it lasts.

Go Povetkin.

I'm sorry you lost on the Federer match. I wish you had read some of the threads in the tennis forum before making your decision. I'm playing over 9.5 on Povetkin, only because my book doesn't have a decision prop. I don't see Chambers getting stopped, but I know he can't win a decision in Germany. My only fear is a premature stoppage by a crooked referee.

Me too LetMeSpin... Thanks for the consolations...

I read quite a bit, and it looked like the general consensus was the Federer would quite easily take Djokovic. The one place I didn't look was the tennis forums here.  Just slipped my goddamn mind... This one is a tough one to take... Easily could of bought 2 nice houses to rent out here in Chiang Mai with that kind of money.  My GF makes about $20 a day if she's LUCKY and MAYBE $3-5 a day profit... She works 10-15 hours a day 7 days a week....Makes me feel even more horrible...This has really hurt our plans.

He was actually up 5 - 4 in the first and 6 - 5 in the third and choked in both of them. Can't change it now...Only can try and learn from it I guess. 



I think the over 9.5 is a good play... I'm not sure what book you use...But a lot of books will wait until the last few hours before a match to put out the props, so keep an eye out.  The over 9.5 might end up being a bit better than the decision prop because it gives you an extra round 2 and a half rounds...Have to wait and see if and what the odds are...  

The odds just came out at 5dimes.  +217 Povetkin wins inside the distance, Povetkin decision -139. I don't like that Chambers came in so heavy... Povetkin has been KO'ing at 80% his last 10 fights. But none of those guys have the undefeated record that Chambers has and Chambers is slick.  Tough call.

I watched it, and noted that Cazares initially had a gameplan of stalking Guardia in an effort to work on cutting off the ring, but that didn't really work as he couldn't connect with a big punch.  Although Cazares clearly won, he appears to be a little too slow to KO a pure boxer.  Guardia countered many of Cazares' advances with some flush shots, including a classy three-punch combo at the beginning of the third round.  And when Cazares connected with a big punch, it seemed to almost be luck, as he'd wildly swing with his head going the other way.  I made the note that he looked like a flyweight version of Margarito.  Also, Cazares kept throwing this overhand left, and Guardia consistently dodged to his own left to avoid it.  I felt like Cazares could've caught Guardia if he followed the overhand left with an immediate right uppercut at Guardia's oncoming head, but that strategy was never effectuated.  Cazares pretty much telegraphs his punches, which is probably why Calderon had an easy time beating him (other than the round when he got knocked down).  Guardia deserves some credit in this one, though -- he's a tough dude. 

I've now read all the Al.Po. vs. "fast" Edward previews. I'm inclined to agry w/ Mr. Houston & BOXEO's assessment. So I've added an Al.Po. via Decision Prop play.

"effectuated" Scrabble word points for that A2C. Nice!

GLA!
bigeiii

That typed, I'm tempted by "fast" Ed at 11:1 and better on the Decision Prop favor of him.

Any of you feel that? As I doubt EC gets Al.Po. outta there no matter what else might happen.

GLA!
bigeiii

Just my two cents, I had Cazares winning 96-94 last night.

One play for me, it's a LONG shot....

.20 of a unit on the Draw (+2500) in Chambers-Povetkin
If Chambers doesn't pose and stays active with his punch output he could maybe squeak out a decision win, which is translated into a draw in Germany.

"...could maybe squeak out a decision win, which is translated into a draw in Germany."

Yavol. That's funny b/c it could also be true.

GLA!
bigeiii

You like that?  It's a shame, but that's the way it is over there.  Maybe we will see a Griffin-Sturm result tonight and I can get 2008 into the positive.  Forgot to add my totals, January has been a lame and losing month so far..

All plays and units wagered posted
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Last Week: -1.35 units (-$135)
2008 to Date: -3.80 units (-$380)

I will be MIA for the rest of the day, I could watch Povetkin-Chambers live on the computer, but I am going to wait till tonight to watch the HBO broadcast on the big screen; that said I am going to stay off the net this afternoon so I don't view a spoiler before tonight.

Just like in boxing, betting based on reading previews/opinions on the net in black and white print is a very poor substitute for knowledge of the sport and having your own opinion based off of what your own eyes see from the fighters  This is especially true when betting favorites, who do you think the majority of people will predict to be the winner?

And for that case, tennis players.

 

That's a good value bet for sure. If Chambers somehow wins it would be by decision. The only way he can stop Povetkin is if he destroys his face. Povetking does mark up a bit and Chambers has swollen up a few peoples faces. Regardless, Chambers by decision at those odds is a solid bet.