Boxing Picks

Cunningham has been a hard luck fighter. He was knocked down three times vs. Adamek the first time, in a split decision loss, so it's hard to call it "luck," but you could certainly see the fight going another way. Adamek is more of a boxer now, but still an inferior one to Cunningham. If he fails to pressure Cunningham constantly, he might provide Cunningham the chance to win on points.  In interviews, Cunningham correctly identifies tactical mistakes from the first fight and speaks of paying close attention to game plan for the second. Not that Cunningham is a kid, but Adamek has slowed down and was badly outboxed by a one armed Eddie Chambers. Too many factors suggest the possibility of a Cunningham decision for him to be this much of a dog. Some fear of a bad decision in favor of Adamek, but I'll be happy if it comes to that point.

1 to win 2.8

Takashi "you ain't nothing but a" Uchiyama -475 vs. Bryan Vasquez. 

Earlier in the week, Uchiyama was as much as -1500. It's boxing so you have to wonder about that. However, there is no news of any kind of issue for Uchiyama. I believe someone simply saw those odds and, realizing Vasquez is a fine fighter, and perhaps dismissing Uchiyama because of his nationality, took a shot. And at that price it may have been worth it. 

However, Vasquez is just a solid guy, without exceptional speed or work rate and with power that looks average and a low KO rate. He's fighting a taller, stronger, more athletic fighter with devastating power and a comparable skill level. The fight will be in Japan, where Uchiyama is a money making star. Vasquez is a Costa Rican who doesn't make money anywhere. When you add it all up, Vasquez has no advantages and his only path to victory is to overwhelm Uchiyama's many advantages with the night of his life and a bad night by Uchiyama.  

10 to win 2.1

Sorry Bambino. Missed that, but to be honest with you, I had a slight lean to the over with fit young fighters on a big stage and neither having big KO power, in spite of what the announcers were saying. Who knew Tor would quit from two solid punches? Today was full of surprises. 

Well, I wasn't expecting THAT much of a robbery. Oh well. As I said in the other thread, this is boxing's version of your team being on the opponent's two and throwing a pick six. Maybe this one was like that happening two or three times, but it happens. 

-1

This is simply a mismatch. My wife hates boxing and I showed her 30 seconds of Kiko and 30 seconds of Frampton and she knew the winner. 

The more I watched Kiko, the more respect I gained for him. He does many things well and if the chance to bet on him against a continental level guy pops up in the future I might do so. 

Frampton is a world level fighter, very possibly on his way to being a world championship level fighter. His speed and power are superior to Kiko's and Kiko has some pretty big holes in his defense. I would worry about Frampton against a guy with one punch power, because he is open a big counter, but Kiko doesn't have that. 

Frampton is an emerging star in N. Ireland, where the fight will take place in front of 11,000 fans and where Frampton figures to generate millions of dollars over his career. 

This is -530 at 5dimes. If you are not stuck in the US, you can get better.  I think the odds might actually improve as the fight nears, but I filled out some parlays with it now, just in case it doesn't because I think Kiko's actual chance is maybe one in ten or worse.

Just for keeping track of things, we'll say 5.3 to win 1 for now. I'll probably try to win another unit near fight time. 

Win 2.1

+1.1

7 to win 2

Dannie Williams and John Molina JR are two lightweights with big power headlining FNF. Both have defensive holes. Both have 1 punch KO power. Williams is a little quicker, Molina is a little more high profile. To my eye, Williams does  better with the non-KO work. Williams has also never been KOed himself, while Molina is coming of a KO loss. I like Williams at +240, though for just a small bet. I have only seen one fight each and some highlights. 

.5 to win 1.2

I hope this one is a trilogy so that we can all go around saying, RRRRRico RRRRamos vs. Ronny RRRRRios for a year and a half. It's unlikely though, as this is more of a crossroads fight. Ronny is a GPB boy, undefeated and ready to make some money. Rico won a strap and was promptly sent back to the minors by Rigondeaux. But there are maybe two guys who don't lose to Rigo, so there's no shame in that. 

It's a very difficult fight to sort out because both guys have had some marginal performances and I don't know what to make of the trajectory of their careers. What we do know is that they'll both be determined and they are both well conditioned. We also know that neither is a lethal puncher. Along with more subtle aspects of their games, this leads me to a pretty high confidence bet on the over at 9.5 rounds -230.  

3 to win 1.3

Rios/Ramos made it over pretty comfortably. Not much damage done to either. One judge apparently filled out his card 10-0 for Rios while sitting on the can some time last week. +1.3  

+.8 on the day. +1.9 total. 

9 to win .5 

Looking forward to a few fights this weekend. I like Garcia, and the under on the Golovkin fight.

Gavin a Winner. +.5  

+2.4 total. 

I don't know why this didn't click when the line opened at -135, but in a nutshell, is there any reason to think either of these guys go down easily?  We know Salido sure as hell won't, and Garcia is a technically sound, -240 favorite. 

Burgos @ -150: 4.5u to win 3u

Ayala @ -115: 3u to win 2.61u

Good luck all!

Semi-hedged by taking Salido inside distance for +459. 

.3 to win 1.3.

I say it's a semi-hedge because I think a late round stoppage by Salido is a on the table for sure. Especially with big bro working the corner.