Guys Its xmas season time for parties and so forth so I won't be around much. Just like to wish everyone on this site and their families a Merry Christmas and a happy new year.
I would like yo give you all an early Christmas present. Bet Big on Diaz to beat Malinaggi. People are over thinking this fight. Paulie got robbed blah blah blah. I don't think Diaz was motivated for the last fight. He was the hometown fighter, BIG favourite with the bookies (-800). I actually liked Paulie in the first fight. Felt he was great value at +450 (I didn't play more on that below), for the reason there is not a huge amount of difference between the fighters in terms of ability. Diaz is a tough guy to get motivated at the best of times and in that first fight I saw some value in PM for that very reason.
When I saw the rematch and the price of -125 for Diaz, I said yes please MR Bookman. I have, never could, never will bet on Paulie Mallinaggi and people that do so must be insane. The guy is an idiot and the thoughts of a fool like that slapping my money down the drain, not a chance I ever bet him, no matter how great value I ever thought he was. People that back boxers like Jermain Taylor and Paulie Mallinggi really need their heads examined.
Diaz isnt a whole lot better proposition but he is a better proposition. I think Diaz knows he is in last chance saloon here. Lose this and its over. I expect to see the Diaz we saw in rounds 1-6 against Marquez. Beautiful sustained pressure fighting. If he fights to that level, Paulie simply can not live with Diaz and Diaz should build up a big lead on the scorecards.
I fully expect Diaz to win easily on points but the -125 is exceptional value to beat a VERY overated fighter who is a legend in his own head..
So go out, put a packet on it. When it delivers, buy the wife something nice for Christmas and swing by here and say "Cheers Mack