Cotto vs Foreman: Questions and match pick

There were 3 questions I asked myself before placing my wager on this fight...

1. Is Foreman legit?

Against the B level fighters, yes. Against an elite fighter? Probably not. Foreman doesn't have any power. He doesn't have good footwork or great speed. What he does do well is getting of first and clinching/slide stepping out of danger. That was fine against Santos, who was nothing more than a dead weight belt holder. Would he be able to use this style against Cotto for 12 rounds without getting in serious trouble at some point? I don't think so.

2. Is Cotto shot - or was he getting put in with the wrong type of fighters?

Again, I decided the latter. Manny was way too fast and ended up being much too strong as well. Cotto had to back up in the second half of the Margarito fight and the majority of the Pacquiao fight. The cut really hurt him against Clottey. The fact that he'll be able to walk Foreman down with little threat of big shots coming back at him is going to make Cotto look like the fighter we once loved, not the one that has been getting rocked every time he gets in the ring.

3. Will moving in weight hurt Cotto? Will he look slow and sloppy?

All reports are that Cotto is doing VERY well with his infamous stamina issues. Several interviews with Steward and others in the camp confirm this is more than just the trainer talking up his newest fighter. Also, Foreman isn't really quick enough to exploit any lack of speed Cotto might have moving up.

In short, Foreman is going to win some rounds. He's a bit bigger and an awkward guy to figure out. However, he fights going backwards and won't be able to "dance through the raindrops" to avoid getting hit with some big shots.

The fight could become one that is very difficult to score but I expect all the damaging blows will be landed by Cotto. He is still on another level talent wise and should be able to get what could be the last significant win of his career.

Miguel Cotto, -185

Also, this one should go some rounds.  I agree with Mack on the round total with the over 10.5 set around -150ish that could be an alternative way to bet the fight. I just can't put a stoppage out of the question. Both fighters cut and have been known to have some headbutt issues.

I feel you. . . especially point #2.

 

I'm hoping this line gets a little better. Looks like maybe you could fish a -170 or -175 at matchbook, I'd love to see a -150 or so come Saturday. 

 

Good Breakdown

Lets cash on Cotto.

does anybody see any similarity to gatti/gomez?

a fighter going through brutal wars, moving up in weight to face someone with relatively light punching power, then quitting on his stool?

i'm not saying it's going to be the same result, but it's a thought.

No, not even a little bit. Gatti was 35 at the time and was 3 fights deep with Ward, a brutal TKO against Floyd, Baldomir even had TKO'd Gatti prior to that fight.

Cotto is 29. He's been in some real dogfights, but NOTHING close to what Gatti had went through going into the Gomez fight. Also, Cotto is probably a step or two above Gatti in the natural talent area.

I'm on Foreman in this one at +200
I'm thinking that at 154 Cotto might be slower and have less power
Yuri might be able to take a decision, using speed an accuracy

that being said
walktheline makes some EXCELLENT points and has been on fire lately
when he makes picks, I pay attention
also, walk got a great Cotto line
anything under -200, I think, is a good Cotto line
I've seen people laying -220 and -250 out there
and that IS NOT a good bet

wouldn't be surprised at all to see either guy take it
I also think this fight goes OVER

Good luck everyone

I was going to do my own write up buts lets stick to this thread as it was well written and let's keep everything in the one place. Firstly I am agreeing with Walk again (not sure what is going on here )

A lot of cappers I respect (both here and guys like Graham Huston on fightwriter.com, Dwight on gamblers anonymous -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wi9EpXotAow) are giving Foreman a massive chance and feel the odds are wrong here. Those backing Foreman I will not for one second try to put you off. I am taking Cotto on points @+200 and the over 10.5 which is already locked in for -160. Here is why.

First off the bat we don't know just how shot Cotto is and this is why this fight is not a fight to get involved in heavily. Yuri Foreman in my opinion is very over rated. I just don't think he is in Cotto's league (at is best that is). Foreman hasn't knocked out someone since 2006 and Cotto hasn't Ko'd someone since Jennings and let's be honest he is a bum. Therefore Cotto hasn't KO'd anyone in 2 years, even more and if you look at the standard of opponents Cotto fought between Mallinaggi and Margherito, I wouldn't put too much emphasis on those late Ko's and the overall knock out power of Miguel Cotto. Now he has to go up to 154 and fight a guy thats never been KO'd..I cannot see Cotto KOing this guy and Goreman hasn't KO'd a guy since 2006 and we know how tough Miguel is.

I love the over here. The only thing thats makes me nervous is Cotto really could be damaged goods and Yuri could roll here. I am guessing even this banged up Cotto is better then Yuri Foreman and I see Cotto winning a close fight. When you consider this is a hometown fight for Cotto if the fight is close then he should get the decision (ala Clottley fight).

My recommendation is Play the over 10.5 and have a small saver on Cotto on points. Good luck with you plays...

Mack, I agree with the main aspect of your post.  I think this fight is going over for sure.  I see people touting Cotto as a power guy, and I don't believe that to be true.  He's had some nice body shot KOs against lesser opposition, but he's never been a one-punch KO guy.  He'll grind you down and wear you out, and eventually stop you, but I just don't think he'll be able to do that tomorrow. 

Good post Mack.

I watched Yuri on most of his fights.. oddly.. he has amazing feet when he's "away" from a fighter but when he's close he is off balance and that is the one thing that scares me.

For a guy with good foot work he is very off balance on the inside.

Cotto's bread and butter was being a body puncher and breaking a guy down late, now it's the reverse Cotto starting strong and getting weaker and bloodied up as the fight goes on.

Watching Yuri I would say before the Margarito fight he would have lost, but after Margarito .. (where he just quit but we give him a pass on that because of the hand wraps).

Clottey bloodied him up and Pac-man ripped his face up (he quit in that fight).

So 2 out of the last 3 fights he's been KO'd  and the Clottey was a "gift" Hometown win.

I'm going with Yuri because he has fresh legs, never been in a war.. can move for a FULL 12 rounds. He also will NOT allow for the fight to be fought on the inside.

Watch all of his fights, he WON'T let a fighter get him on the inside, he will tie up, boring yes? Effective?Yes against inside fighters.

Moving up in weight, bad eyes, so much drama outside of the ring in his life father dying, being sued for sexual harassment.

Give me the Running Rabbi +165 :)

As always good luck to everyone!
                      

Really hope you guys are right on the rounds. I picked up the Over at -130 a few weeks ago, but the unknown of Foreman has really made me a nervous wreck.

Cotto can last 12 with Foreman any day of the week, but can Foreman survive 12 with Cotto digging into his body?

tough fight here.... i understand why the line is so low but it is just alittle scary. Cotto should win but i would pay anything above -180 for now. Even the point spread seems kinda too good to be true at -115 for only -4 points. thats spread out of 3 cards.

Tred lightly either way but id feel more confident laying on foreman's side then cotto's based of the past. If cotto conditioning does not improve dont be surprised if foreman win, as his conditioning is excellent. like they say, what one lacks in skills make up in training hard, dedidcation, and heart....and foreman has all of those 3 criterias when cotto has been lacking in those

I am going with Foreman on this one.

 When the line first came out I was curious as to why an undefeated guy is the underdog? I thought maybe Vegas doesnt respect Yuri's fighting ability. However as I get more opinions on the fight and study some more I think the line is the way it is based on two things.

 Very few people have seen Foreman and it is very hard to find his fights. I could only find one.

and the other thing is the huge fan base for Cotto mixed with him fighting on pay per view so many times. The betting public sees him so many times they  associate his name with a strong fighter (which he is). Similiar to the Cowboys or Lakers, you usually get an extra point or two if you bet opposite of them, becuase they are fan favorites.

 with that being said , and many smart people on Yuri, I too will take Foreman. Hope this helps.

here is the breakdown

.5 units on Yuri by tko ko or dq at +650

1 unit on Yuri by decision + 210

obviously I hope Cotto quits about the 11th round!

There is also a chance of ARBITRAGE here if you feel like there is no chance of Yuri Knocking out Cotto or a draw. Yuri by decision + 210 and Cotto victory either way -195. I dont know if anyone bets that big to make that count.

ps sorry for the triple post

i personally know alot of sharps that r on yuri....and these guys dont bet on boxing as much as us in this forum do. Ur right to a sense about the line. Yes, i sensed too that cotto is the favorite based off of the cowboys and lakers fan based idea, however i expected him to be much more of a favorite. The reason he is not scares me more then his actually abilites do.

foreman's fight are not hard to find and if they are its because he is still known as yuri boreman to the majority of the boxing community. Yuri has fought more then at least 4 times on live tv. He grabs alot, is fast but not quick,  and has almost zero power. But he is a scrappy guy with stamina and determination.

The question for this fight is what does Cotto have left. Pacman and Margarito broke him down bad, and he got a gift (still was close) versus Clottey. And in turn that explains why this line is so close.

Daniel Santos versus Jocham Acline deserved the to be a 154 champion but even then Santos was showing signs of being a fighter who was in the biz to make a quick check and not to be a champion...the one that faced foreman looked unfit and uninterested and the same one that continued to refuse fight after fight.

Foreman really hasnt beated a B-type fight in his career, and i give Cotto the credit that he is at least still that. Foreman has beat serveral C or C- type fringe contenders and gateway guys in a worn out Santos, Karass, Thompson, Roman, and  Tsurkan. However versus Thompson and Tsurkan the fight could have gone either way.

this is why i say even though i rather be betting on the foreman side due to an uncertainity of a worn down cotto, foreman doesnt have the skills like pacman, margarito, mosely, judah, or even clottey to push me onto the foreman bandwagon.

id say if your on foreman take the spread or him by decsion and if ur on cotto then bet small or a smallparlay with a sure shot. good luck all

I'm on Foreman for a unit and will probably go another. Locked it in a while back. Cotto has been getting stopped too much. Not enough time with Steward. Poor defense. Cotto promotions is involved and Arum said they put his company on the card because they can't get anything poppin on their end so it appears Cotto is on his own. Arum loves the rabbi and they've been promoting the shit out of Foreman. I think Arum is the Svengali here and if it goes to the cards its all Foreman.

It's no secret Arum and Cotto aren't on the greatest terms anymore. Most of it stems from the Margarito situation. Miguel doesn't like how Bob stands up for Marg's innocence in their fight.

The same thing Arum is doing for Foreman here, he also did for Manny. I'm under the assumption he's simply trying to fulfill his contract. That's the only sense it makes to take this fight, in my opinion.

Funny...when I watch Foreman I kind of see myself. We sorta look alike from a distance...not close up though. This has nothing to do with my pick btw as I only noticed this recently.

You know your shit when it comes to the Sweet Science.. tailing you on the over as well.  BOL to us

If Yuri wins tonight you must change your name for a week to the Running Rabbi :)

I'm on Yuri also!

Good luck buddy!
         

ahhh those tricky oddsmakers pulling the wool over peoples eyes.. laying off of cotto cuz of the -170 priceline. look here folks, fact is foreman is overrated you think the books will pay out +165 no way... cotto, cotto, cotto!!! Enjoy the fight everybody!!!

nutty good luck tonite, either one of these guys can win, you give some very good insight, you know your shit and i hate being on the other side of you!

Anyone got a play for Greene/Martirosyan?