Diaz / Morales any thoughts

Morales looked weight drained prior to his fight vs. Pacquiao at super featherweight.   His face was so drawn that I tried to double my Pac-man KO prop when they showed him on TV prior to walking out to the ring, but I was too late.  I think the move up to lightweight will do him some good.  And Morales has looked healthier in the photos I've seen of him leading up to the fight. 

Diaz got outboxed over the first nine rounds versus santa cruz, and he got lucky in the 10th round to land some clean punches that put santa cruz on the canvas.  If the match comes down to boxing ability, I like the veteran Morales.  Diaz really isn't a KO artist, so even though it's a remote possibility, I'd say that the smart play is Morales straight up at about -120.

You have to remember that in Morales's only other fight at 135 he was easily beaten by the larger and not very good Zahir Raheem.

You're right about that.  And Diaz had fought at junior welter until a couple of years ago...Maybe Morales is a shot fighter?  I'm probably going to take a long look at a Diaz KO prop now, as there could be some value there.  What are you thinking?

Knowing that he was outclassed by Pac-man is different than being a "shot fighter." If Morales had kept taking a beating, then he might be shot for this fight.  But he's smarter than that.  He knew he was weight drained for the last fight and stood no chance in the ring.  I think that it's a big stretch to compare him to Gatti, who had taken much more severe beatings at a higher weight class.  Morales is a boxer, and if he boxes Diaz, then he shouldn't have a problem taking the fight.  

On the contrary, you'd have to be a fool to back "The Terrible One" at this stage of his career regardless of the opponent. And David Diaz is all wrong for Erik Morales. He's young, thick, tough, throws committed body punches, and is more of a boxer than the corpse of Morales.

Perricm, didn't it seem like Morales retired in the ring against Pac? Maybe you didn't watch the fight but that's what happened. Everyone assumed he would hang it up, even Arum, but Morales insisted on another fight.

I don't know why I should help a dbag like you win money but I guess it's because you talk about betting on boxing like you're an authority when really you're a sucker, and I don't want you convincing others to make donkey plays.

Funny how last week you and Fullbrights were initially talking about Baldy like he had a chance, then someone talked you into Forrest, then AFTER THE FIGHT you wanted to say Forrest by decision was really the only way to go all along. The way the fight went, Forrest could have stopped him. Clearly the best play was Forrest straight up, since there was no way he could lose the fight. You guys are both morons.

Diaz by KO.

"A chance", of course you idiot Baldomir had a chance, everyone who steps into the ring has a chance.  Please show me where in last week's discussion did I ever endorse playing Baldomir at any odds whatsoever.   I have had Vernon Forrest tabbed in this forum as one of my futures plays for over a month.  If you think I am a moron great, but again just like last week don't state falsities.  My record and posts here at Covers are well documented, I love when new guys like yourself come along and try to be the internet tough guy or the second coming of Jimmy the Greek.

Gosh, Brianedco, there's so much here that I'm going to have to list my responses to the marginal points you bring up:

brianedco: you'd have to be a fool to back "The Terrible One" at this stage of his career regardless of the opponent.

There are opponents out there that Morales can still beat.  I think it's more foolish to say that he would lose "regardless of the opponent" than to back him in some instances.  Yes, Morales quit against Pac-man, but Pac-man has the most potent and effective offensive attack at 130, and Morales knew that he couldn't stand a chance at 80%.  It's well documented that Morales was weight drained for that fight, and I specifically recall realizing that I won my Pac-man KO prop after seeing Morales on TV prior to him entering the ring.  Morales-Diaz is a different kind of fight.  Morales shouldn't fear Diaz, as Morales knows that he has the skills to outbox the smaller brawler.  Of course, Diaz could catch him with some wild shots, and I don't dispute that there's the possibility of Morales going down.  But at close to even money, I see a lot of value in a Morales play, as there's a better than 60% chance that he outboxes Diaz.

brianedco: Funny how last week you and Fullbrights were initially talking about Baldy like he had a chance, then someone talked you into Forrest, then AFTER THE FIGHT you wanted to say Forrest by decision was really the only way to go all along.

See Fullbrights' post above.  Also, given the unknowns about Forrest's condition, Baldomir definitely had to be feared going into the fight.  And Fullbrights shouldn't be associated with my own wavering on the fight.  The fight needed to be properly analyzed and that's why I was discussing it on this forum.  People who come in here touting one fighter at the beginning of the week are the ones who end up losing money.  After careful deliberation, I decided on Friday that Forrest by decision was the logical outcome of the fight.  Whether it was "the way to go along" is actually irrelevant because all that matters is the play you end up making.

brianedco: The way the fight went, Forrest could have stopped him. Clearly the best play was Forrest straight up, since there was no way he could lose the fight. You guys are both morons.

This is a ludicrous assertion.  If you watched the fight, you would know that there was no chance of Baldomir going down, as he basically has a granite chin.  That's why Buddy McGirt told Forrest to just score points and not worry about trying to stop Baldomir.  It would have been stupid for Forrest to do anything other than win the fight once Baldomir showed that he could take Forrest's best punches.  As a result, clearly the best play was Forrest by decision (+120), which offered over 100 points of value over Forrest straight up (-220).  Now, is there really any question about who's the moron?

No problem.



And a lot of fighters go into the ring without a chance. If you don't understand that you're beyond dumb.

I really hope you bet on it. He's done.

Baldomir did not have to be feared going into the fight. He was outclassed and people who understand boxing (eg not you and Fullofit) knew that. He definitely could have stopped him, Baldy definitely could have been cut, and you definitely could have lost your money. Forrest straight up couldn't lose.

It is clear that you and the other guy are tards, and it will be even more clear come Sunday morning.

If you like Diaz to win, the under's a good play, as I could see Morales giving up if he's getting manhandled in the ring.  But if you like Morales to win, then he probably does it by decision.