Posted:
#1
Fight week is here.
Ok, much has been made about the move up to 147 for Manny in this fight. To realize how much, check out this article.
A very good overview of what weight gain does/doesn't mean to a fighter. Some good examples of previous fighters that jumped in weight that had the build for it. Some others that didn't. The other side of the coin has DLH coming back down to 147. I would be very scared about this under most circumstances. However, not this time. If he had to cut 10+ pounds prior to the fight, the drain would be huge. That would give Pacman a chance to use his speed against a dehydrated DLH. That isn't the case. While 24/7 provides very little in handicapping a fight, it did this time. If you had a keen eye in the last episode (prior to thanksgiving) DLH had a workout and a weigh-in to see if he could "eat some turkey." His weight? 147.5. That tells me that not only is he going to make weight, he is is great shape.
Manny has been hurt in several fights and knocked out in the past. So has DLH, but that was by a huge BHop. That is apples to oranges here. Manny wins via pressure. Usually fainting a worthless jab and sending the big straight left down the pipe. This isn't going to work here. He will be the hunted, not the hunter. Also, his biggest enemy is a solid jab. DLH has/had one of the best in the business. To see Manny's struggle with said jab, view a clip from the Marquez fight. (from about 2:20-3:30)
Those straight rights were a product of an effective jab. While DLH isn't known for a great right hand, he will have more than enough snap to do damage to Manny. He can also build off that and land a big left hook to a sloppy and retreating Manny.
Manny could win several early rounds and MAYBE steal the fight if his speed frustrates DLH. This happened in the Mayweather fight. It seemed that DLH gave up the gameplan (jab) and just started throwing one punch bombs that Mayweather easily countered. Manny could do the same, I just don't see it happening.
The other angle in this fight is that it was hand picked by DLH not only for money, but to add a decent win in his last fight with almost no risk. I love Manny - when he fights in his league. I hope he doesn't lose some of his luster after he gets a beating at the hands of DLH. As for DLH, I hope we've seen the last of him. I'm at the point of "thanks, but no thanks" with his antics and clear desire to be a promoter, not a world class legend that he should be.
DLH, ITD, +139 (waiting to see where this goes) the hell with football, this is the only wager that matters to me this week.
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