Donkey Plays for the Week (WAR Hopkins)

Quote Originally Posted by A2C:

Witherspoon: 
And Joe Tessitore said something about a possible fight with Kevin Johnson: 

These guys epitomize the problems with the heavyweight division.  A real heavyweight puncher would destroy either one, yet they're so protected that it takes an eternity for them to be exposed.

Quote Originally Posted by LetMeSpin:

We're just not going to be on the same side of this one.  I took Calzaghe at -230 earlier this week, and I'll add more if I can get that number again. I'm also looking at a decision prop at near even money. I can understand a value play on the Hopkins decision prop, but I would be very surprised if Hopkins were to win. One thing I would caution against though is believing that the judges will favor his style, or even that Golden Boy will protect him. They co-promoted his fights with Jermain, neither of which I thought he lost, and the judges did him no favors. Good luck anyways.

Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:

2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Last Week: +10.23 units (+$1,023)
2008 to Date: -13.53 units (-$1,353)

I figured I would keep the title the same since it was a good omen last week.  Not near the action of last week, but it should be a good weekend of boxing.

Tonight
.50 of a unit on under 6.5 (+165) in Witherspoon-Jenkins
I thought Jenkins looked pretty terrible against Fields, he really didn't throw anything after the first couple of rounds.  I've only see Chazz a couple of times and he is a bit sloppy, but he does have some pop.  I thought on his last stint on the deuce he could have gotten his guy out of there earlier if he would have gone to the body and not head hunted so much.  Worth a small play in my mind at + odds, I saw it keep creep up at 5dimes and had to grab a small stake.

Saturday
1 unit on Hopkins (+250) vs Calzaghe
.50 of a unit on Hopkins (+230) vs Calzaghe
.50 of a unit on Hopkins (+220) vs Calzaghe
.50 of a unit on Hopkins by decision (+325) (Greek version)
1.15 units on Hopkins +9.5 points handicap (-115)
I have typed a bunch on this fight here what i wrote today in the thread from last week.....
I just think the numbers on Hopkins are not indicative of how close this fight will be. I bet Calzaghe in his two closest fights odds wise against Lacy and Kessler so there is no Calzaghe hate here;  I just think there are some factors here that Hopkins has going for him.  Could Calzaghe win this fight on activity, yes, but I think Hopkins will negate his activity by controlling the distance and making the fight a bit sloppy.  I think Hopkins will land a bunch of straight counter rights inside Joe's wide punches and if the judges are truly judging "effective" aggressiveness this decision should be razor thin.  Also, don't ever underestimate GBP's backing of Hopkins and Calzaghe fighting outside of the friendly confines of the UK.  Also, I like the fact that Hopkins is working with Shilstone again if anything for the effect it should have on him mentally.  I may be off here, but that's my reasoning.

Quote Originally Posted by LetMeSpin:

I saw Hopkins beat an overrated, drained light heavyweight, who didn't throw punches, and an out of shape junior middleweight, who stopped fighting with a cut over his eye. Neither performance would I classify as looking better. They were both much better matchmaking than this fight is for him. Calzaghe punches and gets out of the way, so no I don't see Bernard controlling the fight with counter punching.

Quote Originally Posted by LetMeSpin:

We're just not going to be on the same side of this one.  I took Calzaghe at -230 earlier this week, and I'll add more if I can get that number again. I'm also looking at a decision prop at near even money. I can understand a value play on the Hopkins decision prop, but I would be very surprised if Hopkins were to win. One thing I would caution against though is believing that the judges will favor his style, or even that Golden Boy will protect him. They co-promoted his fights with Jermain, neither of which I thought he lost, and the judges did him no favors. Good luck anyways.

Quote Originally Posted by N_J:

Hi.

My play is BHhop as well, but indirectly. I played the prop 'Leader after 3 rounds loses fight or draw'. Calzaghe will almost certainly start faster and win the first rounds on volume alone, leaving me with +270 for Hop. If by some miracle Hop wins 2 out of 3, then I have +270 on Calzaghe, which is fine by me!

This fight's been covered thoroughly, a source I use is confident in backing Hop, with an extensive write-up. I like the Mackie Shilstone pairing again, and I like the intangibles. Hopkins didn't have to take this fight, he took a long time off and waited extensively before making a decision to accept this. He is too proud and legacy-conscious to accept a fight he can't win, he may not actually win, but I like his chances as a dog bet. I don't think it's just about the money here, his position at GBP is lucrative and there are easier paydays out there ie RJ.

Good luck guys