Donkey Plays for the Week (WAR Hopkins)

This is pretty similar to the Mayweather-DLH scoring to me. Golden Boy saves face without creating outrage. I'm really biased, but I had it 8-3-1 for Joe.

NJ, that Lederman prop is outrageous. I don't know how they can blindly give +270 after 3 rounds. I need to start looking more closely for free cash on 5 dimes.

ESPN and Yahoo both found a way to score it 6-6 for Hopkins with the knockdown. I was stunned to see Rafael having it 5-1 after 6. And by stunned I mean not at all surprised because that was absurd and he's a joker.

 

remember he had pavlik taylor one scored 60-53 taylor until the knockdown

Ya maybe he has a thing for guys who don't punch a lot.

Looks like we got a lot of Zag backers in here post fight.  Congrats.

I really still stand by pretty much everything I said pre-fight and in this thread.  I know Calzaghe in every fashion was a winner tonight betting wise, but I still think Calzaghe at -250ish was not a smart side, if you were going to play him it should have been by decision. 

I thought it would be very close and it was in my mind.  Apparently not in some of yours.  I had it 114-113 Zags, definitely wouldn't argue one bit with 115-112 Calzaghe, but anything wider than that is too wide imo.  I was a very very tough fight to score unless you just go blindly by compubox or Lederman, which sadly many fans do.  I don't think Byrd's scorecard was that ludicrous like some of you, anything wider than that for Hopkins would have been though.  You guys didn't seem so quick to degrade ESPN and Yahoo scorecards in the wake of JMM-Pac.

The points handicaps basically covered my Bernard losses. lost .6 of a unit on the fight.  Ugly fight, but as stated I expected that.  Bernard should probably hang them up unless he wants a softie to head out on, there really isn't a fight out there for him without the linear title.

1 unit on Hopkins (+250) vs Calzaghe
.50 of a unit on Hopkins (+230) vs Calzaghe
.50 of a unit on Hopkins (+220) vs Calzaghe
.50 of a unit on Hopkins by decision (+325)
.10 of a unit on the Draw (+2000) in Hopkins-Calzaghe
1.15 units on Hopkins +9.5 points handicap (-115)
1.15 units on Hopkins +8.5 Points Handicap (-115)

I posted a good bit on the fight above, don't really regret playing Bernard at all.  I thought it would be very close and it was, I was going to take my chances at the + odds with the promotional/homeland edge.  I definitely don't think any Zags -250 backers expected him to be dropped and come away with a SD.

Congrats to those who cashed on Joe.   I'm still a Calzaghe fan and I still can't really stand Bernard.  Lol at "it knocked my privates out the side of the cup."

FB, I would have been here regardless of what the Illinois judge's card had said. Congrats on covering your tracks with that spread bet. Where did all the Calzaghe is an overrated, protected loser people go though?
Bernard's behavior in the latter stages of the fight were pretty pathetic.  He had an opportunity to go out with class in the post fight interview as well, but I guess it's just impossible for a white boy to beat him without erroneous judging.  I agree that there was value in the Hopkins decision prop, but this fight went pretty much as anticipated after the early flash knockdown. I give Bernard credit for fighting the best possible fight, and he truly is great at his ugly, unwatchable tactics, but he didn't do enough to win. He finished up fighting Calzaghe's fight, and he didn't have the energy to compete on those terms. 116-111 was a very credible card to me. I found Dan Rafael's scoring, Hopkins up 5 points after 6 rounds, to be preposterous. I think bigeii actually mentioned the possibility of Calzaghe surviving a knockdown to win by the way.

Yes there were a few people saying Calzaghe could suffer a flash KD, it was a +550 prop, congrats to anyone who played it. I didn't think Hop had it in him, the Tarver KD wasn't a legit KD.

I could see 7-5 Calzaghe at best, the obscure Illinois judge probably was a way to have the record books show an SD in a UD fight, like Mayweather-Hoya, and LMS noted. However wouldn't both camps have to agree to the judges? It seemed suspicious from the start.

Good job on covering with the spreads FB, Hop wasn't a bad bet at all at these lines, he just showed his age as the fight wore on. The low blow was legit, the delay was about catching his breath more than recovering. He threw more combos than in recent fights, and it showed late, he's just too old to maintain that pace. He did very well in the flurry exchanges to my surprise, a younger Hopkins who could maintain that pace over 12 could have won the rounds by continuing to engage.

5d posts so many props on big fights, there are bound to be errors. I've caught a few breaks on their sloppy props, this same 'Leader after 3 loses or draw' at around +250 on Jones-Trinidad, when Jones has started slow in all of his recent fights, and Trinidad had to gain some respect for his power at the higher weight. That was very easy. Also, they gave equal odds for Casamayor to win in 10-12 and in 1-3, which I thought was crazy, given Katsidis' cuts, so I played 10-12 at like +2700 or so. They had -450 or so on a 'Not Hatton inside' prop, which I parlayed to hell.

Anyway this was a tough bet to fight on, I think the magnitude of it made it a must bet, even just for fun. Im glad none of us lost too big.

Hopkins landed the cleaner and harder punches in exchanges compared to Joe's slaps, though Joe's compubox stats are more favourable. Again, a younger Hopkins with the stamina to match Joe's output could have, and maybe would have, won the fight. His counters landed, but he doesn't have it in him at 43 to throw enough of them.

Yeah, LMS I saw where A2C mentioned Hops knocking Zags down in his Calzaghe decision play write-up.  I wasn't by any means saying that no one expected Zags to go down, I said people who took out -250ish on Zags definitely didn't expect it.  I still post-fight don't know why people would have laid that price, Calzaghe by decision, yeah I understand that still.  We will have to disagree on that 116-111 score being credible, that's 9-3 Zags, are you kidding me?  Maybe if you are just judging the fight on whose arms are moving the most you could come up with that.  Those type of people always seem to disappear when their tickets aren't on the winning end.  Agree on the post-fight interview, Hops took that too far.  Please tell me what was up with Calzaghe doing the humping motion to Hopkins, was that supposed to look cool?  I'm a Zags fan, but I was shaking my head at that one.

Good job on that prop you hit NJ.  I definitely liked your reasoning behind it and the unlikely scenario turned out to be the one that brought the dough.  Nice.  Agree, the Hopkins of 5 years ago wins this fight by UD.  On the topic of Casa 1-3 and 10-12 being the same; to their credit Casa did have him down twice in the first.

One thing I hope that we all can agree on.  Zags doesn't have any trouble with Jones if that happens; Hopkins had a style to counteract some of what Zags likes to do; Roy doesn't.  I see Roy covering up a lot with his gloves in that one, not really a good way to throw off Joe's rhythm and work rate.

I had it 9-3 or maybe 8-4 watching live. Of course I had my cash and my bias on the aggressive, volume punching side, so I don't really have a problem with your card. I felt that after round 5 Bernard seemed to give up on scoring enough to win a decision. I don't see how Calzaghe could have won fewer than 5 of the last 7 rounds, and I gave him 6 of them. I didn't feel like Bernard was particularly accurate or effective with his shots, and he just threw so damn few of them. If he wants to win like Jersey Joe Walcott, he needs more than a single flash knockdown and the occasional flush right hand, but that's just how I see it. I understand this isn't the Olympics, but you also have to throw punches to win professional boxing matches.

It's almost like he wants to complain to the judges and spout bull shit about being the people's champ. I also despise constant holding and smothering after throwing a single shot. As for the Calzaghe decision prop, maybe Bernard is too smart to get DQ'd or stopped, but he was behaving like a man looking for a way out in the championship rounds. I've never seen a guy take the full five minutes for an accidental love tap on the thigh before. He was clearly gassed, and had Calzaghe not started so cold, the second half of the fight could have been worse for Hopkins.

Like I said 9-3 is completely rediculous IMO.  Interesting to see around the net that I am not the only to think it was razor thin and to also think Byrd's card wasn't really outrageous.  We've discussed a couple of the major outlets already, now I read the Associated Press had it for Hopkins 114-113 along with the BBC scoring on-air for Bernard.  Doesn't matter now though.

Effective aggression and ring generalship are also part of scoring fights. If B-Hop was taking Calzaghe to school and punishing with all those clean shots (sometimes more than 3 or 4 in a round), why was Bernard gassed and begging for time in the championship rounds? As for your Jermain Taylor assertions, don't embarrass yourself anymore. You clearly know nothing about boxing.

Hopkins is an overrated joke,  he's got 1 strategy, throw a right hand, rush in head down and hold, while holding land as many cheap shots while holding other guys hands...and repeat this over and over for 12 rds....its disgusting and ridiculous, sucks to watch, anyone like Byrd who rewards this type of fighter should get out of boxing and go over to ufc, plenty of grasps, hugs and holds over there. I'm glad JC won, I;ve been sick of Hopkins for years

Well that's good for you. You obviously haven't seen a younger Hopkins, expecting a 43-year-old who's been training constantly for several decades to be as physically capable as a younger generation is stupid.

These are the tools Hop has left, and at 43 he's used them to remain top 10 p4p in the world. In the brief periods that Hop had the stamina to trade with Calzaghe, he landed more accurate and harder punches. A younger Hopkins with the stamina to do that for 12 rounds wins this fight convincingly. His timing was great, his strategy was great, and his skills are better, but his body gave up on him.

It doesn't matter if his style sucks, it is effective according to the rules and deserves to be rewarded on the scorecards. If you don't like it, don't watch it.

I'm not sure a younger Hopkins moving up to face a younger Calzaghe at 168 would have produced a different result. It's an interesting debate, and I'll be the first to give Bernard credit for executing a near perfect fight, but no one was betting on a 30 year old Hopkins last night.

I think it's a shame that somehow after that fight people could find a way to disparage either man. The adjustments Calzaghe made to  penetrate Bernard's remarkable defense and actually impose his style on Bernard in the 2nd half of the fight had to be impressive even to B-Hop backers. I also was surprised and equally impressed that Hopkins landed so many clean hard shots in the first half of the fight. It was truly sickening as a Calzaghe backer,

I've been guilty of such short-sighted, bitter criticism before. I remember thinking what a sham Manny Pacquiao is after the Marquez fight, when I should have been praising his will and strength, even if he clearly lost 7 or 8 rounds that night. It's just pathetic for either side to be calling one of these guys an overrated joke. Neither fighter feels that way. Last night we saw in my opinion the #2 PFP beat the #3 PFP fighter in the world. How could either man be diminished for losing or winning a tight decision?

where was the effective aggression on JC's part? Since when does pitty pat punches and quick flurries count as effective? BHop lost rounds based on the fact that as he has gotten older he decides to hold much more and not even throw enough punches in certain rounds. When he threw he landed AND hurt JC. There was the KD in the first round, along with 2 other rounds at the end where he decided to trade with JC and I believe hurt him and wabbled JC (forget the rounds).

As for a younger BHop, he would've destroyed JC. The guy is 43 years old and his body is just in the past years starting to wear down, yet he manages to make fights ugly and either win or stay close.

As for the fighters that would beat JC, Jermaine would be perfect for JC. JC throws round and wide punches and the only kind of fighters that have success vs Jermaine are guys that punch straight. I really believe that JT would beat JC, but I haven't been too high on JC at all. Never thought he was very good.

First of all, JC is not young either, he's 36, some of you make him sound like he's 25 and just beat up on his granpa, and we should all applaud Hopkins for even landing shots. Second, JC went forward and had Hopkins going back and against the ropes for virtually the entire fight, that is aggression and whether you think his pitter patter shots were clean or not, they did land and that got him the win.  Hopkins apologists, it was clear JC was not hurt at all in the first rd flash KD, or anytime during the fight but what was obvious was that Hop ran out of gas and he purposelly took the extra time from the alleged "low blows" which on replay clearly shows he was exaggerating to try to recover.  I don't care if you think 10 years ago he wouldve beaten JC, the fact is, he went in at 43 vs a 36 yr old guy who basically clowned him and beat him convincingly for at least 9 out of the 12 rounds. Nobody can deny that unless they're just fans of Hopkins or lost money on him.

Nobody got "clowned" in that fight.

Calzaghe IS an overrated, protected loser. Congrats to joe for beating a 43 year old boxer, big deal. Joe looked like an amateur and the fight was scored purely on compubox numbers with Calzaghe obviously having the advantage with his slap punches. Dont be so bias when analyzing a fight just because you have your money on one side as it'll burn you eventually.