Haye v Valuev

I have a funny feeling this will turn into the worst heavyweight clash in Living memory. And in Europe they want people to actually pay to view it! Styles make fights and I think these styles will lead to a seriously UGLY fight.

Let me start off that Haye should win on Points. But there is no way I am laying the chalk on a guy away from home in Germany, with a glass chin and giving away so much height and weight. Adding to that this is his 2nd heavyweight fight and first against a decent standard of opposotion. Quite simply there are too many questions over Haye from to back him at odds against.

Haye has a massive advantage in speed and overall athletism. He probably has the best hand speed in the division and this will cause Valuev all kinds of problems. I therefore see Haye winning alot of these rounds by using his hand speed and athletism to outmanoeuvre the big Russian. This will lead to theeee most boring of fights as Haye will be scared sh!tless to get hit by the big Russian. Such tactics will have us alseep by round 6 and I feel sorry for the idiots that are going to shell out money to endure this snoozefest..

At some stage however you have to assume Haye will get tagged. How he responds to this will be the only interesting thing in this fight.

So is there a way to make money on this fight? Probably not. I don't think there is any Value backing Haye at -200 (reasons outlined above). Backing Valuev doesnt get me particulary excited either. So I will look back at history and try pick up some prop bets and those prop bets are...

1) Haye to win the fight after being knocked down (obviously not stopped, standing 8 count for example). Trying to find a book that will do this prop bet. As the fight gets closer this prop bet should be available and available at a pretty decent price. If Haye gets knocked down, because Valuev is so cumbersome and so slow he can fend him off and escape the round and give him time to recover and gets his legs back. He should have a pretty big lead on the scorecard so that a knockdown shouldn't drastically effect the outcome of the fight. Its Germany though and this leads to my second prop bet.

2) Valuev to win the fight on points. This fight will probably go the distance. Even if Haye wins the fight on the journalists and observers scorecard getting the decision might not be easy in Germany. I think his negative tactics (Like Andre Dirrell against Froch) might not be enough to take the belt from Big Nic. That is available right not at +300.

These are only 1 star plays and I urge low stakes on this absolute mess. I expect these boards to be very disillusoned after watching this 'fight'.

ALL the money has been coming in on Valuev and his price has tumbled!. Could be a pickem fight by the time they hit the ring. Going to stick with the 2 prop bets above and also bet the over 9.5 rounds +110..

If Haye is smart boxes clever this will be a snoozefest. If he decides to go for a KO this wont go over 5 rounds so the over is risky too because of this guys Chandalier jaw.

Basically guys I URGE caution betting this fight. Haye is a good boxer but when you have no chin and have been decked by Cruiseweights, are away from home,giving up a truckload in height, weight and reach how can you bet this guy confidently??

He should never have left cruiserweight imo. This is not a fight to invest money in as I feel Valuev is such a limited fighter. Ruslan Chaguev took this guy to school for crying out loud and he is average at best. I see nothing appealing here in this fight as I can strongly make a case for both fighters. When you can do that then you don't invest. The great way of making money is also saving money by not gambling (if that makes sense). Just don't but this tripe is my best advice..

LOW STAKES! Best of Luck...

The amount of money on Valuev is now insane..Its like someone somewhere knows the result of the fight. Sharks and punters alike are pounding Valuev. Incredibibly this could be a pickem before fight time with European Books. I have never seen a line move like this since I have been capping on boxing (15 years).

I have no idea why this line haqs moved like this. Just thought I would share this info..

hey if mack says its the biggest line swing in 15 years he should know, after all hes the "covers machine". i wouldnt try to disagree with him either or he might stop "helping" you.

Let me Spin made a good point about trying to visualize Haye boxing his way to a points win,  how often has he done that- once against some tough Euro dude named Abdoul in a 12 rounder.      Valuev has been momentarily stunned a couple times by Barrett and maybe another fighter or two.   Haye has the capability and desire after landing that first stunning punch to follow up balls to the wall and try and finish him.....A Haye stoppage win inside 6 wouldn't suprise because he's got much more firepower than anyone Valuev has faced. That's why playing the over is a no go for me..   Will he be wise enough not to punch himself out and leave  himself open to being overwhelmed like he was against Thompson.     I'm favoring fight won't go distance....  good luck , I'm looking towards some fireworks from Haye to start and to be more exciting than Mack is thinking..