Posted:
#1
Mosley at +375 is a complete steal. I would suggest loading up on this
price while it is still around. If Margarito has weight issues (which
I'm expecting he might) this fight could go off as low as Margo -300.
Margarito has power - just not of the one punch variety. He wins by walking you down, taking your best shot, and punishing you. This style works for him unless his opponent does some things very well......
1. Has fast hands.
Cotto had a great gameplan early in the fight and was winning the early rounds by a very wide margin. How? He let Margo lead, as in come forward. This enabled him to get off "pot shots" as Margo came straight forward with his piss poor defense. He would land a combo and circle left or right depending on his position in the ring. Rinse, repeat. You aren't going to knock out Margarito - but you can bank plenty of rounds early if you can execute this game plan. Something I'm pretty sure Mosley will be successful at.
2. Have great lateral movement - do not let Margo eat a few shots in exchange to backing you into a corner or against the ropes. Sense the trouble and be able to get the fuck out of these situations. Cotto was unable to do this the second half of the fight and we all know the results. If you don't, your chances of taking these beatings for 12 rounds and living to tell about it isn't all the great.
3. Have great stamina. You can't take rounds off against an animal like Margarito. You tire and he'll smell the blood. He'll turn it up a notch and take you out. He's made his career off of similar situations.
Margarito has been defeated by some real donkeys. Daniel Santos, Rodney Jones, Larry Dixon?, Victor Lozoya? Not exactly a murder's row, so I'm not dreaming up a situation here to justify a long shot pick. It's a fact that it can be done with ease if it's done correctly.
Another possible strategy would be fighting like vintage Bernard Hopkins - get off first, score points, then clinch. It would suck to watch but we are talking about gambling here. I watched 12 rounds of Toney vs Oquendo only to get robbed by the judges. I then followed that up by watching 12 rounds of a senior citizen vs an ogre, only to be robbed again. Boxing can really suck sometimes.
Mosley is old but still is so technically superior to Margarito that he should be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat. His best traits are exactly what you need to beat Margarito. Will he look old and tire late in the fight after too much punishment? An entirely possible outcome, hence the big odds. Mosley also may have been fighting for years on the juice and is only an average fighter without it. Doubt that is the case but we'll never know.
I think the big odds are due to the fact that people don't understand why Cotto lost the fight in the brutal fashion he did. The Cotto beat Mosley, Margarito beat Cotto, so Margo>Mosley theory is being thrown around too much as well. I will be all over Cotto in the rematch for the record. Everyone remembers Cotto slumped over like a chump with the look of defeat in his eyes. Nobody remembers the beating he was giving the entire first half of the fight.
Best bet that isn't out yet... Mosley ahead on the cards after 3 rounds. I'm 100% sure this will be at decent + money. I doubt he'll just come out and pound Shane. He always starts slow and might not be prepared for the speed of Mosley. I wouldn't be shocked if Shane swept the first three rounds.
I'm already sitting with about 334 to win 1,247 on Mosley. I was out Sunday for the Cards game and had to call in my Steelers bet to the local. Oh yeah...
Troy.
I'll be adding at least another 200 on this to try and get the 2k
payout. I'll be adding it all if I find even the slightest notion that
Margarito was struggling big time to make weight. That could be the big
blow to his legendary stamina that gives Mosley the final advantage
necessary to pull it off.
Sorry about the Berto/Collazo under. It really should have been. Both of those guys ate huge shots early and often. Easily the fight of the year so far.
Mods - I know I posted this in the P-Box. However, I had two Covers tabs open and wanted to post it here in the first place.
Margarito has power - just not of the one punch variety. He wins by walking you down, taking your best shot, and punishing you. This style works for him unless his opponent does some things very well......
1. Has fast hands.
Cotto had a great gameplan early in the fight and was winning the early rounds by a very wide margin. How? He let Margo lead, as in come forward. This enabled him to get off "pot shots" as Margo came straight forward with his piss poor defense. He would land a combo and circle left or right depending on his position in the ring. Rinse, repeat. You aren't going to knock out Margarito - but you can bank plenty of rounds early if you can execute this game plan. Something I'm pretty sure Mosley will be successful at.
2. Have great lateral movement - do not let Margo eat a few shots in exchange to backing you into a corner or against the ropes. Sense the trouble and be able to get the fuck out of these situations. Cotto was unable to do this the second half of the fight and we all know the results. If you don't, your chances of taking these beatings for 12 rounds and living to tell about it isn't all the great.
3. Have great stamina. You can't take rounds off against an animal like Margarito. You tire and he'll smell the blood. He'll turn it up a notch and take you out. He's made his career off of similar situations.
Margarito has been defeated by some real donkeys. Daniel Santos, Rodney Jones, Larry Dixon?, Victor Lozoya? Not exactly a murder's row, so I'm not dreaming up a situation here to justify a long shot pick. It's a fact that it can be done with ease if it's done correctly.
Another possible strategy would be fighting like vintage Bernard Hopkins - get off first, score points, then clinch. It would suck to watch but we are talking about gambling here. I watched 12 rounds of Toney vs Oquendo only to get robbed by the judges. I then followed that up by watching 12 rounds of a senior citizen vs an ogre, only to be robbed again. Boxing can really suck sometimes.
Mosley is old but still is so technically superior to Margarito that he should be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat. His best traits are exactly what you need to beat Margarito. Will he look old and tire late in the fight after too much punishment? An entirely possible outcome, hence the big odds. Mosley also may have been fighting for years on the juice and is only an average fighter without it. Doubt that is the case but we'll never know.
I think the big odds are due to the fact that people don't understand why Cotto lost the fight in the brutal fashion he did. The Cotto beat Mosley, Margarito beat Cotto, so Margo>Mosley theory is being thrown around too much as well. I will be all over Cotto in the rematch for the record. Everyone remembers Cotto slumped over like a chump with the look of defeat in his eyes. Nobody remembers the beating he was giving the entire first half of the fight.
Best bet that isn't out yet... Mosley ahead on the cards after 3 rounds. I'm 100% sure this will be at decent + money. I doubt he'll just come out and pound Shane. He always starts slow and might not be prepared for the speed of Mosley. I wouldn't be shocked if Shane swept the first three rounds.
I'm already sitting with about 334 to win 1,247 on Mosley. I was out Sunday for the Cards game and had to call in my Steelers bet to the local. Oh yeah...
Troy.
I'll be adding at least another 200 on this to try and get the 2k
payout. I'll be adding it all if I find even the slightest notion that
Margarito was struggling big time to make weight. That could be the big
blow to his legendary stamina that gives Mosley the final advantage
necessary to pull it off. Sorry about the Berto/Collazo under. It really should have been. Both of those guys ate huge shots early and often. Easily the fight of the year so far.
Mods - I know I posted this in the P-Box. However, I had two Covers tabs open and wanted to post it here in the first place.
0
he never looks at the odds 
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