Pavlik vs. Martinez,oddsmaker error pick

The suspense is killing me......

For me, Pavlik is a one trick pony. He's at his best when he can keep u at the end of his jab and then drop his sneaky cross that often ends fights. He doesn't handle angles very well and his hands are too slow to be good on the inside. If you look at Pavlik's legs, their almost always straight and flat footed(it disgusts me)(No head movement either). This gives him 12 rd stamina but also makes him vulnerable to movement. Pavlik "deals" with angles by taking a half step back to set up the 1-2. The fact that Pavlik is so one-dimensional combined with Sergio's speed of foot and hand is a bad combination for Pavlik backers. Let's not forget that Hopkins set the blueprint on how to beat Pavlik. I see Sergio using lots of movement, feints and then rushing inside of Pavlik's reach and letting his hands go before he slides out. Pavlik will try to pressure but he'll eat counters for that. Sergio is undersized, but he didn't have an ounce of fat for the Williams fight and weighed 166 the next day(without a full training camp). I'm only about 65% confident on Sergio but he's the underdog so I see value. I'm also putting a tiny insurance bet on the draw.

Hey DannoDanger... good one - I deserved it!

Dude... Martinez didn't start boxing until he was 19. That Margarito fight was very early in Martinez' career. He's 10 times a better fighter now. Martinez is not the type of fighter who simply does what his trainer says. Martinez studies film and in his Spanish interviews he sounds extremely intelligent. All that being said, if Pavlik wants to win, he needs to pressure pressure pressure. The last southpaw Pavlik fought was an over-the-hill Bronco McKart. McKart got tired, plus he didn't have Martinez' legs or handspeed, but he knocked down Pavlik in the fourth with a right hook and looked good on the inside. However, Pavlik's pressure wore McKart out and Pavlik scored a 6 or 7 round stoppage.

Ok finally made a decision on this one..I will be playing the over 11.5 rounds @ evens. As I stated above I am nervous about taking Pavlik on at odds against and Martinez odds are not quite big enough for such an unluckly fighter.

I believe the fight will be a hard fought close fight. I think Martinez is teak tough and I don't think he has the power at 160 to KO Pavlik. While I wouldn't be stunned to see the under hit here, in what could turn out to be a 5 round war, I will play my hunch for low stakes. Good Luck all with your plays. Sorry I have nothing more confident.