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    All Forums | Boxing

    Pavlik vs. Martinez,oddsmaker error pick

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    Redlad
    Goldfisch
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    Redlad
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2010 - 8:19 PM ET #26

    Quote Originally Posted by DatMofoThere85:

    For me, Pavlik is a one trick pony. He's at his best when he can keep u at the end of his jab and then drop his sneaky cross that often ends fights. He doesn't handle angles very well and his hands are too slow to be good on the inside. If you look at Pavlik's legs, their almost always straight and flat footed(it disgusts me)(No head movement either). This gives him 12 rd stamina but also makes him vulnerable to movement. Pavlik "deals" with angles by taking a half step back to set up the 1-2. The fact that Pavlik is so one-dimensional combined with Sergio's speed of foot and hand is a bad combination for Pavlik backers. Let's not forget that Hopkins set the blueprint on how to beat Pavlik. I see Sergio using lots of movement, feints and then rushing inside of Pavlik's reach and letting his hands go before he slides out. Pavlik will try to pressure but he'll eat counters for that. Sergio is undersized, but he didn't have an ounce of fat for the Williams fight and weighed 166 the next day(without a full training camp). I'm only about 65% confident on Sergio but he's the underdog so I see value. I'm also putting a tiny insurance bet on the draw.

    Hey DannoDanger... good one - I deserved it!

     

     

    Excellent Post!.......

     

    You are definitely someone who studies & has knowledge of the subtleties of boxing styles. Needless to say..I agree with your analysis & think Martinez has a great chance to win this fight for many of the same reasons you stated in your post.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DatMofoThere85:

    For me, Pavlik is a one trick pony. He's at his best when he can keep u at the end of his jab and then drop his sneaky cross that often ends fights. He doesn't handle angles very well and his hands are too slow to be good on the inside. If you look at Pavlik's legs, their almost always straight and flat footed(it disgusts me)(No head movement either). This gives him 12 rd stamina but also makes him vulnerable to movement. Pavlik "deals" with angles by taking a half step back to set up the 1-2. The fact that Pavlik is so one-dimensional combined with Sergio's speed of foot and hand is a bad combination for Pavlik backers. Let's not forget that Hopkins set the blueprint on how to beat Pavlik. I see Sergio using lots of movement, feints and then rushing inside of Pavlik's reach and letting his hands go before he slides out. Pavlik will try to pressure but he'll eat counters for that. Sergio is undersized, but he didn't have an ounce of fat for the Williams fight and weighed 166 the next day(without a full training camp). I'm only about 65% confident on Sergio but he's the underdog so I see value. I'm also putting a tiny insurance bet on the draw.

    Hey DannoDanger... good one - I deserved it!

     

     

    Excellent Post!.......

     

    You are definitely someone who studies & has knowledge of the subtleties of boxing styles. Needless to say..I agree with your analysis & think Martinez has a great chance to win this fight for many of the same reasons you stated in your post.

     
    Goldfisch
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 11:38 AM ET #27

    i am going to go with martinez in this one. I think he has a real shot at winning this fight and I get underdog odds. I like to bet the more athletic fighter and he is that in this fight. Lets see what happens, havent missed  on boxing bets this year. only have bet four though. lets make it 5-0
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    i am going to go with martinez in this one. I think he has a real shot at winning this fight and I get underdog odds. I like to bet the more athletic fighter and he is that in this fight. Lets see what happens, havent missed  on boxing bets this year. only have bet four though. lets make it 5-0
     
    McNulty
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 12:38 PM ET #28

    I'll probably change my mind in a few hours, but looking like a no-play. After seeing Pavlik's training pics from Fightnews it appears Pavlik is taking the fight really seriously and training accordingly. My finger is on Pavlik, but not sure if I'll press.

    Same as Rich, I'm seeing Pavlik winning, possible late stoppage.

    Curious to see if Mack's hunch play's out. The over does sound good, but there is that possibility it goes really under. I can't see Martinez knocking Pavlik out, especially after seeing how many punches he took from a still-viable Taylor before he went down. But I can see Martniez' clock getting cleaned though. Tough call.


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    I'll probably change my mind in a few hours, but looking like a no-play. After seeing Pavlik's training pics from Fightnews it appears Pavlik is taking the fight really seriously and training accordingly. My finger is on Pavlik, but not sure if I'll press.

    Same as Rich, I'm seeing Pavlik winning, possible late stoppage.

    Curious to see if Mack's hunch play's out. The over does sound good, but there is that possibility it goes really under. I can't see Martinez knocking Pavlik out, especially after seeing how many punches he took from a still-viable Taylor before he went down. But I can see Martniez' clock getting cleaned though. Tough call.


     
    Popo21
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 1:33 PM ET #29

    Pavlik is definitely the pick here.I'm a fan of Martinez and he did well against Pun, but the move in weight class is going to be his downfall. Kelly is a true middleweight power puncher and if Williams was able to drop Martinez, just think of what Pav can do with a clean shot.

    Also, Martinez's style was great for Williams because of the number of punches that Pun throws, with many of them being reckless. As a counterpuncher, Sergio was able to get out of the way and tag him throughout the fight. While Martinez is obviously the faster fighter of the two and being a crafty southpaw may cause Kelly some issues in the early rounds, once Pavlik is able to pick his shots and land, he should slow him down. One problem for Sergio is that he often gets into brawls during the middle rounds and if he falls into one with Kelly, hes going to be in trouble.

    I think this is going to be a great fight and potentially a FOY candidate, with Pavlik getting a stoppage in the 7-9 round range. Once hes able to track Martinez down and land some big shots, Martinez is going to wish he stayed at 154.
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    Pavlik is definitely the pick here.I'm a fan of Martinez and he did well against Pun, but the move in weight class is going to be his downfall. Kelly is a true middleweight power puncher and if Williams was able to drop Martinez, just think of what Pav can do with a clean shot.

    Also, Martinez's style was great for Williams because of the number of punches that Pun throws, with many of them being reckless. As a counterpuncher, Sergio was able to get out of the way and tag him throughout the fight. While Martinez is obviously the faster fighter of the two and being a crafty southpaw may cause Kelly some issues in the early rounds, once Pavlik is able to pick his shots and land, he should slow him down. One problem for Sergio is that he often gets into brawls during the middle rounds and if he falls into one with Kelly, hes going to be in trouble.

    I think this is going to be a great fight and potentially a FOY candidate, with Pavlik getting a stoppage in the 7-9 round range. Once hes able to track Martinez down and land some big shots, Martinez is going to wish he stayed at 154.
     
    JoeyJoe69
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 2:40 PM ET #30

    I see this one going to a decision in Martinez's favor. Anyone else with me on the over 11 1/2 rds?
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    I see this one going to a decision in Martinez's favor. Anyone else with me on the over 11 1/2 rds?
     
    MIXED_NUTS
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 2:57 PM ET #31

    PAVLIK !!!!  non-stop pressure....wont last 11 1/2 rounds

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    PAVLIK !!!!  non-stop pressure....wont last 11 1/2 rounds

     
    MIXED_NUTS
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 2:58 PM ET #32

    you can bet your wife on this one...i mean the other wife
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    you can bet your wife on this one...i mean the other wife
     
    DatMofoThere85
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 3:00 PM ET #33

    If ever there was a fight with a high chance of a draw, it's this one. +3000. That's all I gotta say. The Atlantic City casino's want Pavlik to win or at least draw. Not since Arturo Gatti has there been a fighter who can put asses in Atlantic City seats.
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    If ever there was a fight with a high chance of a draw, it's this one. +3000. That's all I gotta say. The Atlantic City casino's want Pavlik to win or at least draw. Not since Arturo Gatti has there been a fighter who can put asses in Atlantic City seats.
     
    Redlad
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 3:28 PM ET #34

    Speed Vs: Power....... Usually Favors Speed

     

    Pavlick the harder puncher but Martinez the better boxer.

    It all comes down to ...if Martinez can take Pavlick's punching power at this weight class. I think he has at least a 50% chance of acomplishing that goal. So at +160 I'll stick with my Martinez wager.

     

     

     

     

     

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    Speed Vs: Power....... Usually Favors Speed

     

    Pavlick the harder puncher but Martinez the better boxer.

    It all comes down to ...if Martinez can take Pavlick's punching power at this weight class. I think he has at least a 50% chance of acomplishing that goal. So at +160 I'll stick with my Martinez wager.

     

     

     

     

     

     
    McNulty
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 4:34 PM ET #35

    Ended up on Pavlik, small though.

    Too big, too tough, too much on the line. 

    Martinez needs a stoppage in AC...not going to happen.
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    Ended up on Pavlik, small though.

    Too big, too tough, too much on the line. 

    Martinez needs a stoppage in AC...not going to happen.
     
    Goldfisch
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 5:47 PM ET #36

    mcNulty, say it aint so. I wish you would have gone with Martinez, so I would feel better about my decesion. I would say good luck but I would be lying because I dont like losing. lol
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    mcNulty, say it aint so. I wish you would have gone with Martinez, so I would feel better about my decesion. I would say good luck but I would be lying because I dont like losing. lol
     
    DannoDanger
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 7:03 PM ET #37

    I've changed my tune on this fight.  The more I've thought about it, the more I think Pavlik wins this one, to the point that I'm pretty confident about it now.  This is the biggest, strongest guy that Martinez has ever fought.  Pavlik is a powerful middleweight.  Will Martinez be able to take his best shots for 12 rounds?  I'm betting he can't. 

     

    Pavlik ITD +145 for me. 

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    I've changed my tune on this fight.  The more I've thought about it, the more I think Pavlik wins this one, to the point that I'm pretty confident about it now.  This is the biggest, strongest guy that Martinez has ever fought.  Pavlik is a powerful middleweight.  Will Martinez be able to take his best shots for 12 rounds?  I'm betting he can't. 

     

    Pavlik ITD +145 for me. 

     
    nuttyrich
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 7:37 PM ET #38

    I'm not strong on this play but I've been leaning towards Pavlik by KO.. I guess it's because I hate the path Pavlik took fighting cupcakes and dropping out of fights.

    I think he is way too big for Sergio and will take it's toll late between the 9-11th round.

    No bet here just an observation.

    Good luck Danno! 
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    I'm not strong on this play but I've been leaning towards Pavlik by KO.. I guess it's because I hate the path Pavlik took fighting cupcakes and dropping out of fights.

    I think he is way too big for Sergio and will take it's toll late between the 9-11th round.

    No bet here just an observation.

    Good luck Danno! 
     
    DannoDanger
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 7:43 PM ET #39

    Thanks Rich.  I've changed my bet.  I've decided to take Pavlik at -180 with my local, just in case Sergio guts it out until the end.  I do believe that Pavlik will stop him though.
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    Thanks Rich.  I've changed my bet.  I've decided to take Pavlik at -180 with my local, just in case Sergio guts it out until the end.  I do believe that Pavlik will stop him though.
     
    Mark_Anthony
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 9:02 PM ET #40

    Quote Originally Posted by DatMofoThere85:

    For me, Pavlik is a one trick pony. He's at his best when he can keep u at the end of his jab and then drop his sneaky cross that often ends fights. He doesn't handle angles very well and his hands are too slow to be good on the inside. If you look at Pavlik's legs, their almost always straight and flat footed(it disgusts me)(No head movement either). This gives him 12 rd stamina but also makes him vulnerable to movement. Pavlik "deals" with angles by taking a half step back to set up the 1-2. The fact that Pavlik is so one-dimensional combined with Sergio's speed of foot and hand is a bad combination for Pavlik backers. Let's not forget that Hopkins set the blueprint on how to beat Pavlik. I see Sergio using lots of movement, feints and then rushing inside of Pavlik's reach and letting his hands go before he slides out. Pavlik will try to pressure but he'll eat counters for that. Sergio is undersized, but he didn't have an ounce of fat for the Williams fight and weighed 166 the next day(without a full training camp). I'm only about 65% confident on Sergio but he's the underdog so I see value. I'm also putting a tiny insurance bet on the draw.

    Hey DannoDanger... good one - I deserved it!

     

    Excellent Post!  You pretty much covered every single point I was going to bring up. 

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    Quote Originally Posted by DatMofoThere85:

    For me, Pavlik is a one trick pony. He's at his best when he can keep u at the end of his jab and then drop his sneaky cross that often ends fights. He doesn't handle angles very well and his hands are too slow to be good on the inside. If you look at Pavlik's legs, their almost always straight and flat footed(it disgusts me)(No head movement either). This gives him 12 rd stamina but also makes him vulnerable to movement. Pavlik "deals" with angles by taking a half step back to set up the 1-2. The fact that Pavlik is so one-dimensional combined with Sergio's speed of foot and hand is a bad combination for Pavlik backers. Let's not forget that Hopkins set the blueprint on how to beat Pavlik. I see Sergio using lots of movement, feints and then rushing inside of Pavlik's reach and letting his hands go before he slides out. Pavlik will try to pressure but he'll eat counters for that. Sergio is undersized, but he didn't have an ounce of fat for the Williams fight and weighed 166 the next day(without a full training camp). I'm only about 65% confident on Sergio but he's the underdog so I see value. I'm also putting a tiny insurance bet on the draw.

    Hey DannoDanger... good one - I deserved it!

     

    Excellent Post!  You pretty much covered every single point I was going to bring up. 

     
    nosup4u212
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 9:35 PM ET #41

    Guys I don't know why you have so much faith in pavlik he is gonna get his ass wupped.  Martinez is faster and will dominate the fight moving in and out and scoring often pavlik will get frustrated with Martinez standing there with his hands down shrugging his shoulders Pavlik will come in and get pounded and in my eyes Martinez gave paul williams all he could handle and he won that fight and make no mistake about it he will win this fight on points at worse case scenairo I predict he will knock out pavlik
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    Guys I don't know why you have so much faith in pavlik he is gonna get his ass wupped.  Martinez is faster and will dominate the fight moving in and out and scoring often pavlik will get frustrated with Martinez standing there with his hands down shrugging his shoulders Pavlik will come in and get pounded and in my eyes Martinez gave paul williams all he could handle and he won that fight and make no mistake about it he will win this fight on points at worse case scenairo I predict he will knock out pavlik
     
    king-fisher
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 9:41 PM ET #42

    Pavlik get this...either by KO or hometown cooking....
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    Pavlik get this...either by KO or hometown cooking....
     
    DannoDanger
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 10:01 PM ET #43

    Quote Originally Posted by king-fisher:

    Pavlik get this...either by KO or hometown cooking....

     

    He's not from Atlantic City.

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    Quote Originally Posted by king-fisher:

    Pavlik get this...either by KO or hometown cooking....

     

    He's not from Atlantic City.

     
    McNulty
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 10:52 PM ET #44

    Quote Originally Posted by DannoDanger:

     

    He's not from Atlantic City.


    Still his home turf though imho.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DannoDanger:

     

    He's not from Atlantic City.


    Still his home turf though imho.
     
    McNulty
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 11:28 PM ET #45

    Martinez down in the 7th. Pavlik is in a rhythm and the right hands are landing with better frequency.

    Martinez having a good round 9.
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    Martinez down in the 7th. Pavlik is in a rhythm and the right hands are landing with better frequency.

    Martinez having a good round 9.
     
    MarkDogg
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 11:30 PM ET #46

    cmon Martinez shit
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    cmon Martinez shit
     
    MarkDogg
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 11:44 PM ET #47

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    depressed
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2010 - 11:54 PM ET #48

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    nuttyrich
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 12:03 AM ET #49

    Congrats to Martinez Backers..

    Pavlik came in bit Pudgy, looks like his career is over, because a rematch with Martinez will result in the same outcome as he cannot make weight.

    He is even more flat footed with more weight, Martinez can get a free payday if Pavlik elects to do the rematch.. for us fans I hope Martinez does a rematch with Paul Williams!

    Congrats to those who won!
                        
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    Congrats to Martinez Backers..

    Pavlik came in bit Pudgy, looks like his career is over, because a rematch with Martinez will result in the same outcome as he cannot make weight.

    He is even more flat footed with more weight, Martinez can get a free payday if Pavlik elects to do the rematch.. for us fans I hope Martinez does a rematch with Paul Williams!

    Congrats to those who won!
                        
     
     
    Redlad
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2010 - 12:25 AM ET #50

    Pavlik just couldn't handle the speed & foot movement. Martinez gave him some beautiful angles to defend for most of the fight. Pavlik has too many obvious weaknesses to remain a world class fighter. He needs to cherry pick opponents to give the impression that he can compete at this level of the game. Smaller slow of foot plodder would be what the doctor ordered.
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    Pavlik just couldn't handle the speed & foot movement. Martinez gave him some beautiful angles to defend for most of the fight. Pavlik has too many obvious weaknesses to remain a world class fighter. He needs to cherry pick opponents to give the impression that he can compete at this level of the game. Smaller slow of foot plodder would be what the doctor ordered.
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