For me, Pavlik is a one trick pony. He's at his best when he can keep u at the end of his jab and then drop his sneaky cross that often ends fights. He doesn't handle angles very well and his hands are too slow to be good on the inside. If you look at Pavlik's legs, their almost always straight and flat footed(it disgusts me)(No head movement either). This gives him 12 rd stamina but also makes him vulnerable to movement. Pavlik "deals" with angles by taking a half step back to set up the 1-2. The fact that Pavlik is so one-dimensional combined with Sergio's speed of foot and hand is a bad combination for Pavlik backers. Let's not forget that Hopkins set the blueprint on how to beat Pavlik. I see Sergio using lots of movement, feints and then rushing inside of Pavlik's reach and letting his hands go before he slides out. Pavlik will try to pressure but he'll eat counters for that. Sergio is undersized, but he didn't have an ounce of fat for the Williams fight and weighed 166 the next day(without a full training camp). I'm only about 65% confident on Sergio but he's the underdog so I see value. I'm also putting a tiny insurance bet on the draw.
Hey DannoDanger... good one - I deserved it!
Excellent Post!.......
You are definitely someone who studies & has knowledge of the subtleties of boxing styles. Needless to say..I agree with your analysis & think Martinez has a great chance to win this fight for many of the same reasons you stated in your post.