Plays for Saturday

Last 3 years posted at Covers: +61.53 units (+$6,153)
2009: -19.92 units (-$1,992)
Last Week: -1.20 units

Got off to winning night tonight, but boy that KD killing draw would have been sweet.  Up just over a c-note after tonight's FNF, 1.3 units.  This is going to be a risk and reward weekend for me as I am loving Julio against Kirkland at the nice plus odds.

1.5 units on Julio (+245) vs Kirkland
2.5 unis on Julio (+250) vs Kirkland
I have been waiting for the right time to really go against Kirkland and I think this is it.  Kirkland is not the type of style has given Julio trouble in the past; he's not a boxer that uses a lot of movement side to side and not of the tall Sergiy mold that uses a steady jab to keep you at bay.  Kirkland will be right in front of Julio and most of the time rushing in without much of a jab.  Kirkland's defense has flaws I think all will agree with that, but he has gotten away with it to an extent because he hasn't faced a big puncher that can really exploit it (Conyers is the only one that's put him on the deck).  Of course it all may be a moot point, because Kirkland is heavy handed and likes to throw and he may catch Julio with something big, but I'm willing to roll the dice here and roll them heavy.  I may play Julio ITD for a unit if it is offered also.

2 units on under 9.5 rounds (+155) in Braehmer-Kanfouah
Braehmer isn't world class, but close and Kanfouah is nothing but a journeymen and a part timer at that.  Kanfouah hasn't fought in over a year and looks like he may be coming back to Germany for a payday.  Kanfouah was stopped by Braehmer's lesser stablemate Ulrich in his last trip to Germany and I think his fate will be the same only earlier this time around.  And of course this covers a Braehmer shocker KO, because he really doesn't have the best chin.

1.25 units to win 4.05
Ortiz (-440)
Guerrero (-900)
Braehmer (-900)
Graf (-650)
Demers (-900)
Khan (-135)
Enzo (-975)
Klitschko (-735)

Lottery Parlay
.45 of a unit to win 5.45
Ortiz (-440)
Kirkland-Julio under 8.5 (-185)
Guerrero-Yordan under 7.5 (-165)
Braehmer (-900)
Graf (-650)
Demers (-900)
Khan (-135)
Klitschko-Gomez under 7.5 (-135)

I like Julio, but I'm not sure how much. I remember having the conversation with you/the board that we couldn't believe he didn't destroy Vera. Something about him looked very bad last time from what I remember....

I can't stand Kirkland and will be pulling for either way. I'll probably make a small play on this one, but I'm not so sure.

I am starting off my day with GRAF-800 for 200$
and I am not too crazy with Julio for the night play
I really enjoy watching Kirkland and his explosive fighting but his last fight proved that he still has  a lot to learn especially on DEFENSE.

I also think that Mighty Mike Arnaoutis might be a value play with 300+ lines.  I like the guy not only because i know him personally but i also like his style and determination for boxing.  I did go with heart yesterday betting on Shamone Alvarez (who is a very close friend of Mikes) and that didint work out.. I hope that will make him even more hungry

Fullbrights-can u please recomannd some websites that are very good with boxing odds.. i woiuld like to join what u are doing with posting my results.. The odds i get from ym local are just too silly.

You can get the best odds at Matchbook, since you set the line. 5Dimes is easily the best book when it comes to boxing and MMA.

Who are we talking about here?  Julio hasn't fought Vera, Kirkland did.

I think Julio has a ton of value.  Good luck on your under tonight, I'm pulling for you.

Good to hear we are on the same page with Julio G8RB8.  So your liking Mighty Mike uh?  I just can't get the visions of him standing in the ring like a mannequin against Holt out of my head.

Had to add Julio ITD.  Agree with all that has been said about what books are best.  The Greek is rock solid also, very fast payouts.

1 unit on Julio ITD (+541)

walktheline, G8RB8- thanks guys just got back from Money Gram..made a nice deposit.. the odds make my book look silly.
U will see me here more often with my bets and stats.

Getting back to Boxing.

 Kirkland-Julio fight has the making of Hagler-Hearns fight..slugfest. 
If i didint see Kirklands last fight i would be all over him but the last one changed me a bit.  Julio has what it takes to take him out. I see Kirkland going out crazy early and if Julio stands that out after 5th hes got him..and possibly knock him out.

Mighty Mike is another story- very pleasant and nice guy..i dont know if he can do it but knowing someone personally and having a good value makes me jump on it.

Here are my  bets for the day

.35 units  on Rachid Kanfouah/Juergen Braehmer Under 9½ +155 
1 unit on Daud Cino Yordan/Robert Guerrero Under 7½ -165
1 unit on Guerrero wins inside distance -169
.20 units on Julio wins by 10 rnd decision +500
.19 units on Julio wins inside distance +537
.50 on Mike Arnaoutis +415 vs Ortiz

Yep, cheers Lucky Luke, reads like Braehmer knew he had a spent bullet in front of him from the opening bell. 



2 units on under 9.5 rounds (+155) in Braehmer-Kanfouah

A2C you on anything tonight?

Personally I don't have a lean on Mike one way or the other really, I was just pointing out the odds for Luke.

Honestly, I view the Julio fight as having nice plus money on a coin flip.  They're both going to bang, Kirkland probably has the power edge and is hungry, Julio is smarter and more slick I believe.  Plus, Julio probably can prepare better knowing that Kirkland is going to come right at him.  I'm looking forward to a slugfest.

I was thinking about adding Julio ITD myself, but for some reason I can't pull the trigger yet. . .  GL with it, I may add later

u guys see this... My local (before i joined 5Dimes-Thanks) had Urlich -1100...

In a bout for the vacant WBO InterContinental light heavyweight title, former world title challenger Thomas Ulrich (31-5, 21 KOs) was surprisingly knocked out in round eleven by Mariano Nicolas Plotinsky (15-3, 8 KOs). The aggressive Plotinsky pressed the action all night and explosively ended it with a big right hand with about 30 seconds left in the eleventh.

Fullbrights-Urlich is the only play u skipped in your Parlay...Lukcy u! lol
hes washed up and done..

Good luck to us.

Yep, that's why I didn't throw him in.  He is pretty shot.  I thought about playing Plotinsky, but to be honest with you he didn't look like much and figured that Ulrich would probably win a friendly German decision.

Don't be gun shy, no pressure though.

Actually I'm waiting to see how my Wright St and Richomnd bets play out before I take a stab. . . Might even wait until Clev St and WVU looks as well. . .