Plays for the Week

All plays and units wagered posted
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Last Week: -4.38 units (-$438)
2008 to Date: -17.96 units (-$1,796)

No new lines yet at my books, but I am already down on two fights Saturday.  I've been on Casamoyer for a while now, never thought the number would get to where it is now.  I like Rees to get it done also.  I have a couple of takes in mind for fights yet to be offered; one of which is Mr. Lee having his hand raised pretty early Friday.  I said at the beginning of the year that I was going to play my strong takes larger in 2008 because the last few years had allowed for it; it hasn't worked out so far, but I think things will turn around.

Saturday
2 units on Rees (+140)
1 unit on Rees (+145)
What I wrote in the other thread....
Rees is in his backyard and should be able to out work Kotelnik in route to a decision victory.  Kotelnik has fought the better opposition throughout his career, but like Rees he isn't much of a puncher; unlike Rees his punch output isn't very high.  I see a UD for Rees here and am already on him as the dog.  When I saw the odds on this fight I smiled, because I thought we would see the opposite.

2 units on Casamoyer (+175) vs Katsidis
1 unit on Casamoyer (+170) vs Katsidis
1 unit on Casamoyer (+180) vs Katsidis
1 unit on Casamoyer (+185) vs Katsidis
I've touched on this fight for the last couple of weeks, my thoughts haven't changed; here's what I wrote in the other thread......
Katsidis is young and very strong, yes, but what else does he have working for him.  He hasn't fought anyone; he was KD hard in a slug fest with Earl who has since been dispatched of in one by Khan and he was in a brutal distance fight with Czar who's career hadn't been anything to write home about.  Katsidis is a face first guy with no defense, limited footwork, and now a tendency to cut/swell.  Translation; a fun fighter to watch, but not fun to bet on.  The Gatti comparisons have something to them; he will make for exciting fights throughout his career, but his in-ring accomplishments won't be very high in my opinion.

Across the ring will be Casamoyer.  He has a solid chin; never been stopped and only been down a few times.  He's a master counter puncher who's very good technically and he will have a lot of openings to exploit with Katsidis's style.  I guess the people who are betting up Katsidis are remembering the Santa Cruz fight; well I remember it too because I was robbed on the dog Cruz that night.  That fight really doesn't mean much here though, Casamoyer's style is a perfect foil for Katsidis.  Plus, it is always nice to read the reports that Katsidis has been struggling a bit in the gym with southpaws who know how to box.

Futures......
1 unit on Hopkins (+250) vs Calzaghe
.50 of a unit on Hopkins (+220) vs Calzaghe
.50 of a unit on Hopkins by decision (+325)
5.6 units on under 9.5 rounds (-140) in Cotto-Gomez
2.9 units on under 9.5 rounds (-145) in Cotto-Gomez

Which post do I respond to?  JK.

You don't have to tell me how the Santa Cruz fight played out, lol, I played Santa Cruz and lost.  Please tell me you are not speaking of the 1st round knockdown when you say that Joel was hurt bad, are you kidding me?  He wasn't ever hurt "bad" in that fight even though I think he clearly lost.

This is a completely different fight stylistically and Casamoyer isn't coming off of a 13 month lay off this time around.  Katsidis may be a young lion, but he is a sloppy one.  If you want to compare him to a lion I guess you could say that he is one of those that strays from the pack and picks out a water buffalo that he deems to be older and not as quick only to get hurt being bucked into the air as he gets too over eager to take it down.  A war with Graham Earl, a fierce battle with Czar; what has this young lion done to show you he can fight on an elite level?  Styles make fights and Casa's is all wrong for Katsidis.  Albo you may even be able to land a couple of good counters on Katsidis with his defense.

Onto Cotto-Gomez.  Interesting you say that Gomez has a great chin, I seem to remember him being buzzed badly and on the verge of going down against Jesse Feliciano in an 8 round draw which I thought Gomez lost and was pretty exhausted after.  Yes, I said Jesse Feliciano.  He will not last 9.5 with Cotto's body punching, don't overrate a win over a shell in Gatti.  Cotto overrated?  You can say the guy may not have the best set of whiskers, but the dude isn't overrated and I have been one of his biggest critics.  Just look at his complete beatdown over Quintana now.

I may be throwing money into the toilet, but I think the pipes lead straight to my wallet.

Here is what I wrote on here fight week, dug through the archives.

"Quickly, to break it down for you.  Santa Cruz struggles have come from breaking down to heavy pressure, Casa doesn't bring this.  Casamoyer's inactivity at 36 is not a good thing, though I do like the fact he is back with Joe.  Santa Cruz was a sparring partner for Casa pre Coralles II and from what I hear held his own pretty well.  Santa Cruz has come a long way since then and although it isn't a huge indicator of the success he will have tomorrow night it has to help his mental mindset a bit."

I would still make that play at +190 with another 13 month layoff from Casamoyer.  I only played Santa Cruz for a unit.

I'm telling you that you will be surprised Saturday with how well Casa is built to exploit Katsidis's style.  Time will tell, but I like my side.

So, beating an earl and a czar isn't enough to anoint Katsidis as king of the jungle? 

I got a laugh out of that A2C.  Very clever.

I thought you would have had more to say than that.

So how much are you taking out on Katsidis?

On the topic of Gomez, I checked youtube just now and the Feliciano fight is on there.  Give it a look and tell me what you think.  Gomez is in for a rude awakening; this isn't Feliciano or the over the hill tandem of Gatti and Tackie.

Rees may be worth a shot at the price as the fight could easily be a pick'em. They have a common solid opponent in M'baye and Rees had more success against him, but the remainder of his opposition is utterly laughable, some of the worst I've ever seen. He has two wins over a guy with 240 losses, that's unheard of.

Yet, what attributes does Kotelnik possess that make him a -160 fave?  I've heard a lot of people talk crap about Rees' record leading up to this fight, but I have yet to hear a good reason why anyone should back Kotelnik at this price.  To me, it's a pick 'em fight on neutral turf, but in Wales, Rees should be around a -150 fave.  I haven't heard anything about Kotelnik that sways me from this view.

Fullbright, i still think Gomez will last 10 rounds or more, Judah is a fragile boxer and went 11 rounds with him,and I think Gomez is improving nicely, hes not that contender fighter anymore,the clear value here is over 9.5 rounds. Cotto should hurt Gomez in the fight but not early,and he should have a better preparation for this fight, and forget about Quintana, hes a bum in the welterweight division,hes the worst welter champ in my memory lol.Im puertorrican but thats the true.I got $500 on the over already, good luck.

I hear yah on JoelC. Joel is kinda an under-heralded mans B.Hops or RJJr. He's seen it all, he's done it all & he's taken care of himself. But I'm leaning towards a Decision Prop. Katsidis does have some Voltage, and the older JoelC will wanna stay away from that. My one concern is that MK has worn a crimson mask before, so a TKO is in the mix, and Joel clearly has the Resume` & Experience edges.

All that typed.........Joel seems to be slowing down to me though GH reports that MK has trouble w/ Lefties. So I'm gonna tab the UP, and prolly each Decision side.

I like the UP on AK and Rees. Would not mind a Decision Prop for each side either.

Want a piece of Andrew Lee as well. Possibly little AP, as the sweet-science calls a 20-second TO for the NC2A's this weekend.

GLA!
bigeiii

 

Yeah, like I said he had fought a whole bunch of nothing before M'baye.  Neither has much pop, but Rees is much more active.  I talked to a buddy of mine about this fight last week and we both agreed the Rees's work rate would be the difference here.  Fights in Wales, Enzo C. in the corner, neither is a puncher, and Rees is busier then Kotelnik; IMO, this reads like a UD for Rees.

No worries, I wanted to get your Final Four picks on the record before the tourney started.  I am sure you wouldn't be complaining if Belmont keeps this up, neither would I.  I think ND matches up very well with your Heels if the Irish can get there.

I hear you on the equal amounts.  Went less on Rees since I have only seen him against M'Baye so there isn't as much to base that play on.  I've seen Kotelnik a few times so I like the reasoning, but it's hard to be as firm since I have only seen Rees the one time against solid opposition.

Are you telling me that you think Gomez is better then Judah?  That's actually one of the few times I would still bet on Zab.  Yes, Judah is a fragile boxer, but there is a big difference between Gomez and Judah.   Zab had the power and quicks to buzz Cotto early, but Gomez doesn't have much pop so Cotto won't be nearly as cautious early (think Quintana here).  It's not like Gomez is much of a boxer either so he will willingly engage.

What fight have you seen from Gomez where he has improved nicely?  Please tell me your not going off of him fighting a shot Gatti and the trial horse Tackie.  IMO the only way this goes over is if Gomez jumps on Cotto's back and Cotto gives him a ride for 10 rounds.

Quintana is a bum?  What was your opinion of Paul Williams before that fight?  I can think of many titleholders at Welter that were worse than Carlos.

What does Feliciano hanging in there 10 rounds with Cintron have anything to do with the Gomez fight?  He was basically a punching bag for 8 of those rounds in the Cintron fight.  Feliciano is gritty, but the fact is he hurt Gomez and he hurts no one outside of ESPN fighter D. Rod.  Gomez was exhausted at the end of their 8 round draw and he got hit cleanly a ton.  Gomez is not a mover so he will be a willing target and Cotto will oblige.  What are you basing your comment about Contender fighters doing well when they fight for the title; Manfredo's great showing against Calzaghe, lol.

UCLA,Kansas, Stanford and not sure in NC's bracket. I think they got a pretty tough draw.

I guess I can see why you bet less on Rees then. You have seen more of the other 2 fighters.

I can;t believe someone called Quintana a bum. LOL. The guy is solid as hell. Not a great boxer but very good.

GL this week fullbrights