Sergio Martinez (Upcoming fight and thoughts)

The Sergio fight would have turned out better if the prop +230 to win by dec won.
The hedge prop Sergio winning by stop in 11th and 12th paid well. It wasn't a great play, mainly because I didn't think Sergio would KO the guy past 8 full rounds. You can't be naive either as when fighters are way behind, as if they are so far behind and it is apparent they have less than 1% chance to KO the opponent, more often these days fights are stopped. Especially when they can't properly defend themselves against a fighter who is inflicting damage (and this is the time when the serious long term brain damage occurs). Good corners will stop it when his fighter is getting hurt and his fighter has not shown ability go KO the opponent. It is smart to protect fighters as one impressive win can help define a fighters career in a positive direction. One bad stoppage (I mean not early enough) can end his life, or make him a vegetable for life.
During a medical-nutritional seminar, I was asked to explain in laymen terms a question and statement.
The subject details are irrelevant, the message is very important...
I said to the panel and crowd to picture a large mountain, with many different terrain and compare it to health (and more so a message that defines life).
When developing a positive will balanced diet (I would have said lifestyle, but many people were he for exactly just their topic. Also, each of these components are my opinion of everything. We all are connected in some form, so trying to take out the general lifestyle comment, but that is the key. Diet is a tiny piece of one's lifestyle.)
Sorry, but as I said, no matter the topic, everything is connected.

Back to mountain... for 99% of people (realize it or not) understand that changing diets (lifestyle) is a start along with exercise. Just like a mountain, it takes a while to climb to the top. You have times when you see instant progress, other times you see none. To make this to the point, that mountain takes much hard work, patience, intelligence and experience so to work smarter not just harder. Not matter if you try to sprint to the top could end you at the bottom fast. It takes considerable time to turn one's life around as it does to climb the mountain. Life like the mountain has its perils. If you are in a bad sport ( or life situation) on false step can do more than set you back only to restart your plan, it can cancel you ticket... permanently. Not paying attention you might come to a cliff area, and that game is usually over. It seems unfair that it takes as so long and hard to achieve, but one false step (maybe it wasn't you, but rare circumstances outside your zone of control; Tsunami 2004 Christmas time) and you either have to start all over if your are lucky, start over now with an even worse situation) and your life as you know it can perish.

To the topic boxing:
The late stoppages of today are a good thing (although we all like preferably to watch a knockout). A large study of NASCAR shows that even the avid fan is in suspense waiting for that huge accident with a pile up. Yes, it has also shown people prefer it if no-one go hurt, but lets be real. That speed, no matter what safety mechanism they have, deaths are bound to occur (along with minor-to-major physical damage; not including the psyche and PTSD). I remember Manny destroying Cotto and hoping a stoppage would come earlier. He was just a punching bag in appearance, but a man with a family.
While on NASCAR... these men are in vehicles that average over 100° and wearing so much clothing with gear it reminds me of SF.
Also, maintaining the physical stamina and staying extremely sharp mentally is standard... otherwise one little misjudgement by 2 inches, and it could cost you the win, or your life along with others. The debate on if they are considered athletes of a real sport I won't leave my opinion. Considering what they go through, it's very physically and mentally taxing on the body.

Joe Frazier before his death said the fighters today and the money they make should be willing to die in the ring. Joe was old school (even during a time when boxing brought great fights, it was starting to fade). I feel Joe had a good and not so good point. Does a money payday define whether you should be willing to die at a price??? That depends on how you a person values money.
Joe had a good point about the fighter's today when in a tough fight, look for reasons to stop the bout while keeping their so called respect and public image. These are the times that define not only what kind of fighter a man is, but what type of man the fighter is. Circumstances don't make a man, they reveal him. (A comparison to poker; I've known so many different personality types it's scary. I knew a guy who was a class act in life and beyond generous. When things went bad at the table, he lost his temper and couldn't sleep for days. Money wasn't an issue as these were mid-stakes and he was rich (he also played not to win, but enjoy himself, which turned out to be impossible for him with his attitude). He would lose cause he played not to lose, rather than any risk to win. It was even limit-holdem, so each hand the most you could lose $240... very rare. Maybe $150 was a high average. When he lost, he blamed everyone but himself. It is common, but you would think I was describing a different man.) The circumstances defined him. My clinical definition: While playing not to lose, (instead of playing to win) the man created his own bad luck (like the saying: "The harder I work, the luckier I am"..meaning you just give yourself more good opportunities.
Then I was asked if poker was a sport! One thing is for sure, the better shape you are in ( and now days because of internet and they could play more hand experience in 1 month, than a 60 year live poker veteran. They could play 10 tables at once, and get 40 hands per hour, making that 400 hands an hour, then after ten hours that is over $4,000 hands of poker, which take 5 weeks of 50 hour  5 days a week live. Also, ten tables might seem many, but at low stakes (it was considered mid-stakes but poker evolution moved fast), I played 20 at once. When playing limit, you get twice as many hands per hour, unlike NL they get time to make decision,  as limit you get 7 seconds.
Now that young players by the age of 21 have more experience than a man who would be 300 years old playin live to compare. Young players in good shape, also think better for longer periods of time, while out-of-shape or older (or both) easily start fatigue and in No-Limit, one false move, can cost you more than just your past 8 hour earnings, but sometimes every dollar to your name. Yes, some players have $500,000 bankrolls and they let it all on the table. A far cry from money management!!
It is a fact that in shape, thinking clear for long periods of time makes you a big favorite (if you were both close to ability).
A close friend and student asked me how I get average players who played all nite, to go all-in preflop when they have a good hand like QQ or AK... which is not correct unless you have little money or it is a tournament, because you are only getting called by a better hand.
I explained that sub-consciously after people play 24 hours, they want to quit and relax and sleep. So, a hand they would have folded 20 hours ago, they now risk the $3,000 they started with, but the other $5,000 they won all nite. I explained to my friend that these people sub-conscious need a reason to quit other than just walking away...and usually losing all their money on a big hand is the hurt, but relief. It is a somewhat self destructive habit in us all, and it shines with lack of sleep. They aren't going to lose on purpose with a bad hand, but a hand preflop like QQ (in NLH) is the 3rd best hand to start, but when someone raises you all your money and you have a big-stack, 6 out of 10 times means I have AA, 2 times would be KK, 1 time (it happens but extremely rare) is QQ, and 1 time is a bluff. I am slightly over 80% (about the best you can have preflop advantage), and is 4-1. You would think having the best possible preflop chance would be better than 9/2, but you have 5 more cards to share now and you only have played 2,  or 28% of your hand is completed.
The flop is different. Many times a player can be drawing dead (no chance) or the best odds you can have on the flop of less than 1/10th of 1% or just over 1000-to1. Let's use the QdQs vs AdAs hand. The flop is A-6-7. I have three aces. He now need both queens to hit and win. Math: He needs either the Qc (clubs) or Queen of Hearts to hit the turn. If it happens, he has to hit the last remaining Queen. so the math would be 2 out of 45, then times 1 out of 44. 52 cards, minus my 2 aces, 50, minus his 2 queens, 48, minus 3 flop cards, 45... remain. he needs one of two cards, or 2 good cards and 43 bad cards..if he hits, he has 1 good card and 44 bad cards.
Sorry for the off-topic, but I used it as an explanation for betting. Also, as I explained, although the items seems off-topic, my belief of inter-connected helps see the topic through different ways.

GL guys!

Handicapping: Remembering that dominating finds are many times now stopped during championship rounds adds that hedge bet you would never consider many years ago. Also, because now fighters seem to be fighting at much later ages, it makes sense to save a career and lose a fight. Vitali caught negative heat about being a quitter when he decided his shoulder was to bad to continue against Byrd. Here is the Wiki write-up.
"After the ninth round, Klitschko notified his corner that he had a shoulder pain and threw in the towel, thus handing Klitschko his first defeat and awarding Byrd the win by knockout. At the time of the stoppage, Klitschko had a lead on all three judges' scorecards (89–82, and 88–83 twice). Klitschko, who was later diagnosed with a torn rotator cuff, received much criticism for quitting the fight."

Now looking back, he could have continued, won, and damaged his shoulder beyond repair for ring return. Normally I agree they should continue, but fighters know their bodies, and Vitali is sports science PhD. Besides experience, and being able to think long-term, and a doctor in the field of his sport, I'd say what I thought at the time. For several minutes I was shocked. I then remember McClellan stating something felt severely wrong. Give the fighter (especially a fighter who has proven himself) the benefit of the doubt.

zouk, baby, vitili punked out against byrd, what he has accomplished since then does not change that, if you have a hurt shoulder with a couple of rounds to go simply stop throwing with that hand, very simple, it's very similar to if a guy breaks his hand,   plus chris was coming on very strong in the last round and landing nice shots, do you think that if chris did not start pressing the fight and landing nice shots that vitili still would of quit? hell no, all credit to byrd,   it's not like vitili had a neck injury or something, or that byrd was targeting the shoulder,  vitili punked out in this one plain and simple.    chris's interview with larry after the fight is one of my fav. chris is a class act all the way and never gets the respect that he deserves.  I wish the roy jones would of stepped up to the plate and fought chris, but roy was making bullshit excuses, saying byrd was really to big for him and that chris was the fighter that really inspired him to come up the the heavyweight division in the first place, not sure who would of won that one?  both were middleweights when they turned pro.  I think I would of gone with chris in that one

I had a complete tear of the rotator cuff last year and had surgery. I don't think you could do irrepairable damage in that case. You can even use it. Very painful though. If he just rode it out and hardly used it he would have been fine. IMHO anyway....

chris was the willie pep, the pernell whitaker, tommy loughran, wilfred benitez of the heavyweight division, but because he was a heavyweight that did not punch hard, he got more criticism than praise(at least on this side of the world, where everyone seems to only care about ko artists or brawlers) he would fight anyone any time, the problem was that most guys did not want to be made a fool of so for most of his career he was avoided. he lost to ike, who just might of been the best heavyweight in the world at the time and lost to wladimir (both who out weight him by 30 + pounds) in his prime, the rest of his loses were when he was past his best and after had lost a half a step.  in his prime he was one of the best defensive fighters to ever do it and had the skills to outpoint any fighter in the world on any given night and they all knew it.

BigPapa21: Ever hear the saying "the more you know, the worse things get"..., the point is being in sports science who knew all the possible problems that could cause permanent damage. Many fighters who aren't well versed in physiology would continue unaware of any long term risks. Just my opinion. Had he been ignorant to sports science, at the time I believe he continues. He had a serious brutal toe-to-toe fight with Lewis, and that fight made Lewis think it was retirement time, as he under-estimated Vitali. I remember Lewis saying years ago, I could have stayed and just had to worry about 2 other opponents Vitali and his brother. Lewis felt that the fact wladimir had a chin not able to hold for twelve rounds as he had to losses in vicious fashion.
thesoulpurpose: I remember Byrd got the decision win, but said live during the interview he clearly lost and wasn't ashamed to admit it. He said he would only be ashamed if he played stupid like so many other fighters do as puppets in the game of Kings and Pawns!

I thought by the way that Chris Bryd was a great fighter(boxer) that at the time NOBODY really wanted any part of. He had just enough power and was really quick with the angles and hand speed. He made average HWs look slow and awkward. Anyway after i posted about the shoulder and thought about some of the pain and not knowing what was wrong I guess maybe I would have been worried about my career. The pain can be extreme let alone in a match with three rounds left.

 Also, by the time roy jones went to Hw he had nothing for Chris Byrd. Probally would have been a pick em fight.

Jones had a perfect opponent, Ruiz. Not a heavy puncher, or a big guy to give Jones any problems. That fight was a free-bee!

I always liked Byrd, but something people forget... Ali was much bigger and faster than Byrd.... scary!

Klitchsko's are intelligent guys... they know the value and felt they could dominate for years to come, and were correct. Otherwise, if you only got the rare chance and are fighting the fight of your life to win, you continue with the pain and injury as if you lose, most likely you know it's your last chance at a big payday if you win the championship!!!