Weekend Picks (1/16/09-1/17/09)

2007: +12.45 units
2008: +25.3 units

Nick Casal vs Marvin Quintero
Quintero (+225) (5 Dimes) 
1 unit

Hope everyone's off to a good 2009 so far. What a lame performance from Gamboa last weekend to crack off the new season of Friday Night Fights.  I haven't totally given up on the guy, but he's got a long way to go before he earns back the respect of those he let down with that cheap late KO, not to mention his future opponents who will surely look to capitalize off his inept defensive techniques. 

Onto this weekend.  Tonight's play is both a Casal fade and a stab at fantastic value on the up and coming the southpaw Quintero, who scored a ferocious 2nd rd KO against the devestatingly outgunned Puerto Rican, Alberto Almaro, on the undercard of Abregu - Estrada just over a month ago.  Casal's goes into this fight as a modest favorite, despite alternating between wins and losses in his last 6 fights.  For those that track opening and closing lines, we've seen a steady flow of money on Quintero, which has taken him down from the opening number of around +270 to nearly +200 at a number of books.  I'll take my chances for a modest stake on the hard hitting young Mexican here against a guy that's never done anything for me and whose career has been far too inconsistent to merit this sort of favortism.  Hopefully this one gets the year off to a profitable start. Be back tomorrow with at least one more play on the HBO main event.

I'm with you man. 

Cheers man.   Casal shows his face on shobox once again.

A2C strikes again !

Beautiful work !

Nick Casal vs Marvin Quintero
Quintero (+225) (5 Dimes) 
2.25 units

Hey FB and ghostkid.  Good to see you guys.   

This one went right along the predicted script, with Casal throwing in the towel after getting run around the ring like a little beeyotch during the 2nd and 3rd rounds and finally quitting on his stool before the 4th began.  Gotta say, Quintero is a little beast.  He survived a rough 1st only to come back with a great sense of determination and as soon as he let his hands fly, he was able to find Casal at will.  Good start to the new year.  Let's make 2009 the best year yet. 

What's going on Cee MoNeY.  Hope your new year has gone well so far.  Glad you're a regular poster around here these days.  You've got a good eye for underdog value.  Let's make it happen in '09.    

Yep, I was trying to think of who Quintero reminded me of.  He actually reminded me of a Ricardo Torres with faster hands.

Agree with that last statement, let's take it to the books this year more so then ever before.

Good call FB.  That's a great comparison.  I have a funny feeling this is going to be our best year yet.  Let's make it happen. 

 

i know....One the day of the underdogs. I went 2-6. Been stressing myself to hard to match last years numbers. Props on Quintero. I had a small lean in casal yesterday and changed it today. Good thing i placed that

Don't stress Cee.  The year is young and we've got hundreds of fights to look forward to.  You'll get it back in no time. 

Looks like it was a split draw.  Don't see those everyday. 

Yeah, the split draw is about as rare as they come.  What's up with the 94-94 card?  That seemed strange.

Andre Berto vs Luis Collazo
Berto inside the distance (+179) (5 Dimes) 
1 unit

This has been a wild weekend of upsets and I'm calling for one more in the form of a Berto KO, which runs contrary to the way the books have it with Berto by decision as the expected outcome.  This is a fight I've really been looking forward to ever since it was first announced.  Quite simply, I expect Berto to be too strong and too fast for Collazo to survive 12 full rounds.  Early on, I'm expecting to see a good scrap, with Collazo using his speed and southpaw stance to keep Berto at a comfortable distance.  As the rounds progress, I think Berto will begin to connect more and more, as he did vs. David Estrada on the undercard of Pavlik-Taylor I, gradually taking the life out of Collazo.  I considered playing the under on this one too, but I see this prop as the safer play considering that it covers the possibility of the fight ending anytime before the final bell rings, instead of 10.5 rounds on the under.  Not to mention, the under only pays around +130. 

your telling me bro. Nice to see you on the same as me...

I really feel like Berto is going to make a statement tonight in the biggest fight of his career.  Some people seem to be underestimating his power.  I see him as a pit bull style of a fighter that won't let his prey escape alive once he senses blood in the water.  Don't get me wrong, Collazo is a tough dude, but I don't think he'll have enough to keep Berto off of him for the duration of the proceedings. 

Agree completely Cee.  People are giving Collazo too much credit for the fights you mentioned, yet considering the actual circumstances, Berto is nothing like either one of those guys.  

Couldn't have said it any better than you guys
BERTO by ITD...rising to the occasion in the biggest fight of his career....silencing the doubters...

good luck to us !

Let's do this ghostkid.  Can't wait for this one to get underway. 

Looks like we're all on Berto ITD . Might throw another half unit on it.

Hey Kid.  Glad to see you on it too.  

Good to see we are all riding together tonight.  Should be a fun one.  I think Collazo's last fight against the journeyman Jordan is kind of indicative of where he is now.  From a couple of the recaps that I read Jordan was able to touch Collazo up pretty easily early on.  Also, I don't think the southpaw factor will confuse Berto for very long, from what I read he has sparred Winky over 500 rounds over the past few years; that's some pretty good southpaw sparring experience.