Posted:
#1
2007: +12.45 units
2008: +8.21 units
Joachim Alcine vs. Daniel Santos
Santos (+260)
0.5 unit
I see a lot of value in a Santos play here. Alcine has only faced one top-level fighter (Travis Simms), and you could argue that he basically won that one on work rate, as Simms just didn't throw enough punches. Also, Simms may have been overrated, as his best wins came against Jose Antonio Rivera, Bronco McKart, and Alejandro Garcia. All three were quality contenders at the time, but none was considered elite. Moreover, Simms was 36 when he fought Alcine, and it was only his second fight in a three-year period. So, for all the glory Alcine got for beating the undefeated Simms, I don't think it was all that special (if anyone remembers, the truly "special" performance that night was Nonito Donaire's brutal KO of Vic Darchinyan). Alcine has good technique and stays busy, but he doesn't have much power, and he's never been in the ring with someone as good as Santos. Basically, Alcine is a Canadian regional fighter who's just gained notoriety in the past year due to his defeat of Simms.
Santos has beaten Yory Boy Campas, Fulgencio Zuniga, and Antonio Margarito, while he lost a split decision to well-regarded Sergiy Dzinziruk. There's just no substitute for that kind of experience. Also, Santos' style should serve him well against Alcine, as I expect him to allow Alcine to initiate the attack and then counter him with solid, clean shots. Logic says that this should be a decision win for Santos, but a late stoppage is always a possibility if Santos gets comfortable and decides to turn up the heat.
2008: +8.21 units
Joachim Alcine vs. Daniel Santos
Santos (+260)
0.5 unit
I see a lot of value in a Santos play here. Alcine has only faced one top-level fighter (Travis Simms), and you could argue that he basically won that one on work rate, as Simms just didn't throw enough punches. Also, Simms may have been overrated, as his best wins came against Jose Antonio Rivera, Bronco McKart, and Alejandro Garcia. All three were quality contenders at the time, but none was considered elite. Moreover, Simms was 36 when he fought Alcine, and it was only his second fight in a three-year period. So, for all the glory Alcine got for beating the undefeated Simms, I don't think it was all that special (if anyone remembers, the truly "special" performance that night was Nonito Donaire's brutal KO of Vic Darchinyan). Alcine has good technique and stays busy, but he doesn't have much power, and he's never been in the ring with someone as good as Santos. Basically, Alcine is a Canadian regional fighter who's just gained notoriety in the past year due to his defeat of Simms.
Santos has beaten Yory Boy Campas, Fulgencio Zuniga, and Antonio Margarito, while he lost a split decision to well-regarded Sergiy Dzinziruk. There's just no substitute for that kind of experience. Also, Santos' style should serve him well against Alcine, as I expect him to allow Alcine to initiate the attack and then counter him with solid, clean shots. Logic says that this should be a decision win for Santos, but a late stoppage is always a possibility if Santos gets comfortable and decides to turn up the heat.
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