Williams/Wright.....

Quote Originally Posted by walktheline:

After weeks of debate/speculation, it is finally confirmed that it is Williams -180ish. I (and several others here) have voiced a strong Williams lean on this fight. I held this believe until yesterday, when I really started looking at this fight.

I really feel Williams will be the next big thing. He has freakish size and a physical freak at the weights he will be fighting. He has one punch power, is in his prime, and seems to have a decent chin. He lines up a fight with a 37 year old man with little power that hasn't fought in 21 months. Seems like he is adding a name and catching a decent payday with little risk. Or is he?

I'm guessing we all know enough about Winky. Great defense, works the southpaw basic right jab/straight left in textbook fashion. Boring style, but as technically sound as you can get. He won't get you out of there, but he can frustrate you with his defense and lull you to sleep with his jab/straight left for 12 rounds.

With the basics out of the way, we can look at the technical matchup. It seems clear that Williams didn't lose any of that punch moving up in weight. His insane length and pop can give fighters a challenge that they've never faced before. He might be smart and use his physical advantages to keep Wink in his shell and score points based on activity alone, if not clean landing punches.

 He has lost only once (Quintana) and crushed him in the rematch. So while we don't have a blueprint on how to beat him, we do have an example....

His punches are long and somewhat odd, leaving him open to a crisp counterpuncher. Carlos did a great job of this, ducking the long jab and landing good right hooks to the body and straight left hands.

Williams seems to struggle when fighting on the inside, typical of many lanky fighters. When he is blinding you with punches on the outside he can't be touched. He gets huge shots in with little fear of being hit. However, when you have the ability to slip and get inside you can do good work.

Williams hasn't fought any quick/athletic defensive fighters of note. Nobody in the Wright/Mosley/Spinks mold. I really wonder if someone with Wright's experience and skill will expose Williams as awkward and sloppy. I really think this will be the case. See Pavlik/Hopkins for a preview.

Southpaw jinx? Wink is a southpaw, so was Quintana. Fact or fiction? This could either be a huge factor, or nothing at all.

I can't ignore the fact that Wright hasn't fought in 21 months and now wants to take on the biggest challenge in the division. Williams is most likely too big and too hungry to let Winky step up and stop him from being the big dog on the block. Then again, maybe not.

One thing is almost a lock - this fight will go the distance. That will be to much chalk. Williams at -195 at best... way too high after review. Wright at +160ish? Probably a little to short since I see almost no way he will KO Williams. The only play that will have some value is Wink via points, if it is around +260ish or more.

I wouldn't be shocked if Wright makes Williams look sloppy. Could happen but probably won't. The most likely outcome of this fight is both fighters do little, it goes to the cards, then the losing fighter complains about the scoring.  Then we get a rematch....

Quote Originally Posted by EricLinny:

Quote Originally Posted by nuttyrich:



I used to bet at the Greek a few years back, they always had a cap on the fights (at least online). I'm sure they allowed bigger bets on the phone but the years I bet with them the max online I seen on boxing was $500 (on major fights).

Sometimes fights were 6-1 odd makes no sense if $500 is the LIMIT. I can only assume they wanted bet called I for higher wagers.

Quote Originally Posted by EricLinny:

Quote Originally Posted by walktheline:



Williams doesn't throw 100+ punches per round other than against Margarito. In all his Compubox tracked fights he averaged about 74 punches per round. Wright about 65. The glaring thing about Williams is that his opponents volume dropped about 40% from their averages to about 46 punches per round. Chalk that up to his reach and power. They either can't figure him out or they get gun shy to get off first because of his power.

Quote Originally Posted by nuttyrich:



Believe me he throws a ton of punches, and there are TWO versions of Paul Williams, one who CAN sit down and have power and one that throws a ton of non power punches. Scary to see he has so many options and that reach which he DOES use is just amazing.

I think this will be a busier fight on BOTH sides than what most people think. Winky is NOT the Winky of the past and he will open up a bit because Paul CAN be hit.

I love the small line, I think Paul wins a nice easy decision also feel he CAN take Winky out of there, if he wants to make a true statement, but with the small line lay the KO is not needed.

Good luck with your picks. :)

Quote Originally Posted by walktheline:



I didn't pick anything yet - I'm waiting to for the weigh in and the props on this one.

Quote Originally Posted by G8RB8:


Let me know what you think when you see these walk. . . 

My thoughts are that Winky can't win this by the cards.  If this fight goes 12, I'd think Paul's workrate and pressure alone will win him the majority.  I'm thinking Winky by KO will have insane value, and Winky is going into this fight pretty much knowing exactly what PW"s game plan is.  I think he'll spend his time trying to get inside (he'll have to or he will get pummeled from the outside as PW uses his reach) and get off clean shots countering.  I might take the Winky ITD prop, or the under. . .  I don't necessarily like that considering Winky's defense and supposed lack of power, but I think the fight pace might get a little batshit and something crazy happens. Just my hunch. . .  the value is there IMO