The NFL query text two posts above did not fully copy....so here is the complete query text.
week=1 and AD and 7>PRSW>3
and PRSW<o:PRSW
If our game one line is is +6 or less, this moves to 30-8 ATS and eliminates the losers that I mentioned in the past 3 years.
Possible qualifying teams in 2022....Jets, Texans, Giants, Bears, Panthers
Pucks picks go 2-0 as both the Stars and the Predators cover the puckline.......I am far from getting a big head about this as I haven't exactly crushed it in Stanley Cup playoff betting in my betting career.
Here is a premise that is relevant to the forthcoming game 3s.
Since 6 out of 8 series are tied at 1 apiece, we'll focus on those.
When a team is on the road in the first round of the series, in game 3, and the series is tied at 1....a team that generated more than 34 shots on goal in game 2 have only been 7-11 straight up with a negative ROI of 24.32%, or a positive 21.36% ROI for their present opponent .....those qualifying go-against road teams this weekend are....Panthers, Rangers, Oilers
The query text for that is......
playoffs=1 and pp:playoffs=1 and ppp:playoffs=0 and A and tS(W, N=2)=1 and A and rest=1 and p:shots on goal>34
On the other hand, if a team had less than 34 shots last game, in game 3 of a series with the series tied at one apiece., they been 15-11 straight up, +20.53% ROI....those PLAY ON road teams would be, Calgary, Minnesota.........
playoffs=1 and pp:playoffs=1 and ppp:playoffs=0 and A and tS(W, N=2)=1 and A and rest=1 and p:shots on goal<=34
Panthers, Rangers lose as my query text predicted and Oilers win...that part goes 2-1 for 1.7 units of profit.
Wild win and awaiting Calgary's results versus the Stars for our second query.
Let's see if I can come up with a game four angle or two.....
1) According to gimmethedog.com a team that is down 1-2 in their series having lost their previous game at home has been 31-36 straight up -10.71% ROI or +6.3% ROI to their present opponent.....versus Blues, Kings, Lightning
If those teams were outshot in their home loss, this moves to 11-21 straight up (-0.6), -29.20% ROI or +23.83% ROI to their opponent....VERSUS Blues, Lightning
playoffs=1 and ppppo:team!=o:team and pppo:team=o:team and H and tS(W, N=3)=1 and p:HL and p:shots on goal
If they outshot their opponent in their home loss, they were 14-11 straight up (+0.40) +4.38% ROI.....Kings
playoffs=1 and ppppo:team!=o:team and pppo:team=o:team and H and tS(W, N=3)=1 and p:HL and p:shots on goal>po:shots on goal
2) IF, however a team won their previous game at home in game three to go up 2-1 they have been 28-30 straight up -10.3% ROI.....Penguins, Capitals, (Stars?)
If, in that home win our home team generated 35 or more shots, those home teams in game 4 have only been 5-9 straight up (-0.1) for an ROI of -35.77% ROI.......VERSUS Capitals, Penguins
playoffs=1 and ppppo:team!=o:team and pppo:team=o:team and H and tS(W, N=3)=2 and p:HW and p:shots on goal>=35
Plays for Sunday...
1) 76ers -1'
2) Hurricanes +115
3) Wild -115
4) Maple Leafs +100
And, back to a favorite subject of mine.....expansion to Nova Scotia by the CFL. The CFL is missing the boat if they don't go ahead with this.
Now, I have not been to Nova Scotia so Canadians can correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me to be eerily similar to Tasmania in Australia. Tasmania, for those that don't know this, is an island state an hour's flight south of Melbourne. It has been considered a backwater and there's quite a few jokes of Tasmanians as "people having two heads", flying around by other Australians for quite a long time, similar to Polack and Irish jokes that fly around in the USA. I lived in Tasmania for quite awhile and yes, the people are pretty different than conventional societies,....perhaps Canadians feel the same about their eastern cousins, IDK.
Tasmania has tried to get an AFL football team for many years, and they have produced quite a few AFL football players. Because they have not had a team, teams from Melbourne play some games there every year, and the games sell out and from what I gather, they easily could've held double the amount of fans that the stadium capacity has held when the AFL matches have been played, both in Launceston and in Hobart.
This year, the Tasmanian premier has drawn a line in the sand and has said, "we'll get a stadium built, however we are not hosting anymore AFL matches, we want our own team." The AFL has said what they always have said,...."hmmm, that's nice, we'll think it over, we'll do some feasibility studies and we'll get back to you." ("Don't call us, we'll call you.")
Tasmania was granted an NBL basketball team this season, and they not surprisingly have a rabid fan base and they in their first year are playing in the finals........Tasmania's fans have hopped on planes to go to both Sydney and Melbourne to back their team in this year's playoffs. They beat the defending champs from Melbourne in the first round in a big upset and now are down 0-1 in their series against Sydney.
I've said this before, when one out-of-the-way locality has ONE pro team in one sport only, the whole state gets behind that team, and those franchises have the best overall entities in that sport....witness Portland's Trailblazers and Oklahoma City's Thunder, they sell out, EVERY game. It would be the same in Nova Scotia, you'd have one pro team and the rest of the surrounding area would get behind them and their attendance would be as good or better than the major franchises in the eastern part of the country.
You'd worry for the CFL more about about the Argos where fans can't be bothered going to CFL games, and a sports fan has a choice of professional soccer, ice hockey, basketball and baseball to go to in a major metropolitan area. Nova Scotia is as far from a metro area as there is, as is Tasmania. Besides, you want a national league with every area of the country represented, you expand the fan base that way, which improves the profitability of the league, it improves the tourism to that out-of-the-way place that has a lot of majestic beauty, as people now have an excuse to visit Tasmania/Nova Scotia to watch their team play there, etc....it should be a no-brainer for the CFL/AFL except it isn't.
Both Canada and Australia are small population countries, and adding 450,000 fans in Tasmania and 900,000 or so Nova Scotia fans matters....they should find a way to get it done.
Ok, final picks in the playoffs to finish off the non-football season. Done with the NHL playoffs as I typically don't do well in them,....I played my hockey plays small and took a small loss.
Game 5 NBA playoffs, no more plays after this....
1) 76ers +3'
2) Mavericks +6
3) Mavericks UNDER 213
4) 76ers UNDER 209
5) Celtics UNDER 214'
Number one seeds typically don't do well in the round 2 of the NBA playoffs against the spread and not too much better in round 3. One seeded home favorites with one day's rest with the series tied at two games apiece off back to back away losses have only been 2-9 ATS, and 6-5 straight up in rounds 2 or 3.
playoffs = 1 and HF and p:AL and series game = 5 and rest = 1 and round>1 and seed = 1 and series wins=2 and pp:AL
Number one seeds did quite well yesterday, thank you.
NFL schedule out in a couple of days....the last couple of CFL seasons bookmakers have put out the CFL lines 48 hours or less before the first game of the CFL weekend was to be played. If Canadians have lines at their Canadian books (a real possibility now with all of the various sportsbooks operating in Canada) let us know.
NFL schedule has been released and with it, the season's betting lines. Not many games qualify in my best angles for week 1.....I was hoping for a better line in the Giants/Titans game, but it falls just out of range for one of my best betting angles....we will see if that line changes as the season approaches.
I will be betting the Raiders over the Chargers in week one at some point, the line in that game is now Raiders +4.
The Celtics face elimination today in Milwaukee after blowing numerous leads at home in game 5. If they lose today, my futures bet on the Celts will be a loser. I've thought about coming back on the Bucks in their game 6, but instead will ride the Celtics today and if they manage a win I'll probably bet the the Bucks in game 7.
Celtics come back to win game 6.....I have 5 units on the Celtics to win the East (my only 5 unit play this year)....I am playing the Bucks +5 for 5 units on Sunday. If the Celtics win by over 5 points my conference futures play will still be in play and I will have lost my game bet on the Bucks. If the Bucks win I will have hedged successfully with a loss of a half of a unit between the two bets. However, if the Bucks lose by 4 or less points I will win the game bet on the Bucks and still be in play to win the conference futures bet versus the Heat. Number two seeds playing number one seeds in a conference matchup have been 13-6 in their series. If the Bucks were to win the game, number one seeds playing number three seeds have been 7-2 in their series matchup.
I researched how number two seeds (Celtics) have done versus number three seeds (Bucks) in game 7s at home.....they've only been 3-6 straight up, so they have not been that great, hence the hedge.
Otherwise, now that lines are out in the NFL, I've found three games that I will be playing in week 1.....
1) Raiders +4
2) Giants +6'
3) Steelers +6'
They all fall into very good historical angles. Super Bowl losers from the previous season (Bengals) have only been 5-15 ATS in week one (re:USArmy). The Raiders fall into a 29-6-1 ATS angle that has been 10-0 ATS and 9-1 straight up in week one.
The Giants are in a 66-39 ATS week 1 situation that is 14-5 ATS when the line is exactly +6.5.
CFL futures May 14.....
1) Bombers +300.....no way do I think the three-peat
2) Tiger-Cats +500....they finally decided to go with Evans as the full-time guy...championship losers typically perform poorly and last season was no exception as Hamilton struggled throughout the season.
3) Riders +500.....I don't like Fajardo to lead a team to a Grey Cup, this team cannot throw the ball that well.
4) Argos +700.....I love the coach, out of all the qbs though, why have MBT as your main guy?....he does at least a couple of very dumb things every game.
5) Stamps +800...they have the smartest coach and if they get even average qb play they will be in the mix.
6) Alouettes +900....they upgraded their defensive coaching last year and Stanbeck is back, quarterbacking will tell the tail. With their rushing attack they should be an excellent road team. I hate the word "value" in betting, but this seems to be a team that nobody thinks is a threat, which interests me.
7) Elks +1100....this team will surprise....I don't get it that teams have gotten rid of Arbuckle, maybe he has some kind of personality disorder or something, because he could be a top three quarterback this season.
8) Lions +1400....new guy quarterbacking,...they oughta take their lumps early and if the guy can play, they could be better in the second half of the season.
9) Redblacks +1900....their head coach has no business being a head coach.
I will make my over/under lines and then check to see what pointsbet has for their regular season wins.
Mine PB
Bombers 12 10.5 -120.......guess I am not the only one that thinks Bombers will regress
'Cats 11 9.5 +100
Riders 10.5 9.5 +100
Argos 10.5 9.5 -125
Stamps 10 9.5 -130
Alouettes 9.5 8.5.......................surprised it is this low
Elks 8.5 7.5 over -140.....others liking the Elks
Lions 7 7.5
Redblacks 5 8.5!.....noooo way they win 9
No way do I think Masoli and their coach LaPolice leads them to 9 wins this season, they have the worst coach and the worst qb in the division....every team in the East has a season wins line within a game of each other....that's great after last season's totally unbalanced season.
I like for season wins:
1) Argos OVER
2) Alouettes OVER
3) Elks OVER
4) Redblacks UNDER
Will I be betting these?....no I want to actually see these teams perform for a couple of games, as I don't keep up with the personnel or coaching changes like I do in the NBA or NFL.
Bookmakers in the past have hated posting CFL lines (which means that bettors have beaten the linesmaker in the past in the CFL) so I wouldn't suppose that after the first game there will be any more futures lines posted.
Here is another week 1 angle worth mentioning. I see these periodically on a covers forum thread and then plug them into either killersports or gimmethedog to see if they actually are as good as they say.
Well, this one is.
Play on an NFL week one home divisional dog of 6 or less points....since 2011 this has been 11-1 ATS and 10-1-1 straight up.
HD and week=1 and line<=6 and division=o:division and season>2010
Indicated week 1 plays are the Vikings and the Falcons
In week two this has been 9-3 ATS, 5-6-1 straight up.......Jaguars and Saints
On the other hand non-divisional week one home dogs of <=+6 have been 14-21 ATS
Week 2 non-divisional dogs of <=+6 have been 20-10 ATS....Steelers, Cowboys
Now that the linesmaker has put out their futures lines and the public has had time to digest and bet them,...I have modified my week 1 Indigo lines.
Bombers -8 Redblacks 38
Stamps -3' Alouettes 42
Riders -3 Tiger-Cats 40
Lions -1' Elks 38
Would take the Alouettes, Tiger Cats and Elks at those lines.
Celtics come through.....in the end I rescinded my 5 unit play on the Bucks and instead played them on the moneyline +180 for three units as a hedge. Soooooooo, my 5 unit bet on the Celtics +260 to win the Eastern Conference is still alive. I made up for the three unit loss by taking Pittsburgh in the USFL and the UNDER in the Celtics game, both of which won.
My book has Boston at -165 to beat the Heat in the series....I am taking the Heat -2 in the first game as a type of hedge, as if Miami loses game one, the series is over. Teams off a 7 game series win with one day's rest have performed poorly in the following series in their game 1s.
Hopefully stopping Jimmy Butler and Tyler Hero will be a bit easier than stopping Giannis, we'll see.
I took an early payout on the Celtics to win the Eastern Conference for a profit of 5 units.
I have some misgivings about the Celtics in their series with the Heat, though the stats say the Celtics should win.
I have a 1.5 unit play on the Mavs to win their series with the Warriors at +200.
Bought out of my Mavs play which I had upped to 5 units, so took a 2.5 unit loss to get out of it.
I've had two futures plays....... I've won 5 units on the Celtics that I bought of out early (which isn't looking so smart right now) minus the 2.5 unit loss on the Mavs.
Typically I have done well with early buyouts.
I use bet365 which allows buying out and also they allow canceling a bet at no cost before your bet goes off, unless the line goes against you and then one pays a small penalty, which is excellent for me. Other books like pointsbet charge a 20% surcharge if you wish to cancel a wager. Needless to say, I don't do pointsbet much now
However if the Celtics win their series versus the Heat it will have cost me 8 units by getting out early, so that will hurt. The indicators are that the Celtics are gonna struggle and the game could go UNDER in game 3 due to the first two games flying over the total.....I am off this game however, and if the game goes OVER, the linesmaker will be forced to lift the total due to 3 straight OVERs and I'll play UNDER and play on the game 3 loser in game four, as long as they also have lost game 3 to the spread as well.
If you wish to increase your winnings, plan ahead,,....decide what you will do one game ahead of time, and unless you're very much the exception to the rule, it'd be better not to watch the game, as last games tend to unduly influence decisions for the next game.....case in point.....Avalanche dominated the Blues in game 1 of their series, doubling their shot attempts. Blues turned it over numerous times and they could have lost by 6 goals if the Blues' goalie wasn't outstanding.
I entered in the stats/situation in a database (which everyone should consider doing), AND, the overwhelming data showed that even with a HUGE shot discrepancy the indications were that the Blues were play for game two....well I had watched game 1 hadn't I? My gut was overwhelmingly feeling the Avalanche would crush them again. In the end, I played the Blues, but on the puckline +1.5, -125 instead of the moneyline +190, so I got a winner, but it cost me a unit by deciding I needed to watch the game, in a game that was really about a 6-1 game, not a one goal overtime game.
In the hockey playoffs, after game two I like to play the team with the goal differential cumulative disadvantage in a two game chase starting in at least series game 3, so no plays in this system in series game 2...you lose the first bet, you double up on the second. In the case of the Blue/Avs, the Blues lost by one goal in game 1, and won by 3 goals in the second....you add those two up and you get a differential of Saint Louis+2 after two games...when the differential is a cumulative 2 or more in a playoff series the play is the team with the goal differential DISADVANTAGE, in this case the Avs who are -2....if the Avs lose game three, you play them in game four to gain a net one unit after subtracting your game 3 loss.
The Avs will be around -150 game three so just decide ahead of time whether you are comfortable betting 4 units on them if they were to lose game 3. If they/you lose two in a row, you stop...so there is not a three game chase or more involved. This works because results tend to revert to the mean, like a pendulum in motion. If the results of game 1 and 2 were 8-0, and 6-1, you would play the beaten team with a differential of -13 in game 3, and if they won by a goal, there would still be a big negative differential, and you play them until the differential got below -2 or you lose twice in a row. This season in the playoffs, there's been a couple of times where a team with a negative differential of -2 or more has lost twice in a row, the key is one will win at least 75% of time in a two game chase. When a team like the Avs sweeps a team, you've obviously lost games three and four and lost at least 3 units, which should be mitigated by your winners.
.
First CFL preseason games are next weekend....not far off guys.
Would expect now with a legitimate presence in Canada that sportsbooks will have game lines more than 24 hours in advance of CFL games this season.
You would think so, right?
We'll see....it's hard to know if the sportsbooks are so lazy that they can't be bothered, or if they actually feel the pinch of losing in a business where that is very rare.
Wow, what a series!...been watching the Stanley Cup of course and that all-Canada semifinals series between Calgary and Edmonton was pretty great! And controversial call on the disallowed goal. My view? The player stuck his foot out to guide the puck in. I don't know the exact rules are if that constitutes a kick, or not.
I've watched hockey a lot of years, but I've not seen two faster teams on ice than the Avalanche and Oilers....we'll see if the Avs get through so they can play each other....they'd have to set totals of at least 7.5 for that series and maybe we'll see 8. If they actually play I'd make the opening game total 7.5 -120 to the OVER.
I'm doing well in the hockey and basketball playoffs this season....maybe I'm getting smarter and/or luckier with age, as previously I have gotten killed in the playoffs in all sports throughout the last 20 years.
First preseason football in the CFL this weekend. I'm actually watching the USFL a game or two a week that I've bet. Had a couple of unlucky losses so I believe I'm 2-2. (They're always unlucky when you lose, right?) I've got two underdogs this week, the Panthers and the Bandits on Saturday in week 7.
It is looking likely that my cashing out on the Celtics early will have cost me 8 units...coulda/woulda/shoulda won 13 units and instead cashed out winning 5,...probably my biggest misjudgement this year. All up I am up 57 units since last August, so I've made some good decisions as well with 90% of my bets being for one unit. I did save myself a few units by getting out of my Mavs series bets with the Warriors. My biggest moneymaker has been college football and college basketball totals which I bet like crazy in November in football and February in basketball after teams have played at least six conference games.
So far, the database that Spottie and I have used is not operational for the CFL....will it be functioning in time? I am not holding my breath....that would be one thing that covers should do is put up a database for bettors to use, if they are really into "making bettors smarter" as they like to say on their promotional literature. Well then, come up with a database for all sports for your myriad of clientele. I actually had one of the prominent voices of covers tell me on a thread that historical results have no relevance to what transpires now. He puts out his own picks and gets paid by covers as an employee (he's not a betting guy with his own service), and of course he never posts his record of how he is doing.
I plan on going back over our last year's thread in this CFL section where we went over past data that was researched in the CFL when the CFL database was functioning...I've posted a few of those angles on this thread that might be useful. Also, Hoody had a very good year last season using mathematical power ratings, (and I suppose that has "no relevance" either?) so if you are new, make sure you look at what he posts and then plays.
Basically, if you fade last year's results in the first 6 weeks of the present season you would have been a winner almost every year in the CFL...you can make up your own rationale as to why that is so. If you consistently play favorites you will lose. The CFL is the football equivalent of the NBA where 40-50% of the results will transpire betting-wise in the last 5 minutes of the game. The clock stops for almost everything in the last three minutes, so time moves in slow motion, especially if you are backing a favorite and the team that is behind is flinging the ball all over the yard. The team that is behind in the CFL, (as it is in the NBA) will get every call from the officials.
They have put out the monthly betting handle figures for April, 2022. It is looking likely that Nevada will have taken in only the fourth most amount of money on sports betting of all of the USA states, with New York, New Jersey, and Illinois ahead of the smaller population of Nevada.
Last month the sportsbooks in Nevada took in 582 million and made a net profit of 25 million. That is a profit margin of 4%, which is lower than what I've seen in the past where it has been as high as 8%. Keep in mind that if a bettor won exactly 50% of his bets, say he was betting 11 dollars to win 10 on all bets, he would lose 4.54% of his total money wagered. What is not certain for me is do the casinos subtract their expenses of running a sports book into their figures, like wages to employees, lighting, furniture, etc.? I would assume so, which means that bettors probably won only about 48-49% of the time.
We calculate that 4.54% like this...... wagering eleven dollars for every bet single game bet....lost wagers of 11 dollars multiplied by 50 bets would be a loss of 550 dollars and 50 winning wagers betting 11 dollars would bring in 500 dollars, so on 1100 hundred total dollars risked there would be a loss of 50 dollars (500-550)....we divide that -50 dollars net loss by the total amount risked, of 1100 dollars to get a -4.54% return on investment.
So, a new (probably, young) guy or gal comes to me and says, "I want to become a sports bettor, and I am really a great sports fan and I'm good with numbers and I just have a gut feel on who will win."
I'd say, "Certainly not! Do something else with your life."
Less than 4% of sports gamblers make money. It takes 10,000 hours of doing something to become an expert,...you will pay A LOT of money to learn (your performance will be poor as it is in starting any new sport, profession or trade) and even after 10,000 hours you still may not be one of the few that wins. There are plenty of tennis players out there that have spent 10,000 hours playing tennis or golf that are not upper echelon players, right?
The disclaimers on the stock market trading platforms say that "only" 27% of the stock market investors/traders make money. It's not hard to calculate out that the likelihood of making money is 6-7x more likely in the stock market than as a sports bettor. Better yet, get a trade or a profession, because if you lose in sports betting or the stock market unless you have inherited a lot of money how are you going to eat?
As a final note, the casinos of Nevada made a profit in April of 1.128 billion, the 14th straight month they've won over a billion. The sports betting money won by the casinos was only 2.2% of the casinos' total profit for the month.
Look at a casino some time and calculate in your head the total amount of space given to a sports book in that casino versus the space given to one armed bandits, roulette wheels and blackjack tables. The casinos know how their bread gets buttered. Poker and sports betting are skill games someone excellent at it can win...if they allowed a variance of betting in blackjack when a counted card deck had a positive count that would also be a game that could be beaten long-term....there are some that can win at the horses as I've detailed before but the rake is 20% so you'd better be outstanding at it. The rest are all losing propositions.
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