CFL in June, 2022

Only 3-4 months away....here's some angles that our researchers used the last couple of years.

1) Before week five, teams that had the better regular season record last year as:

home favorites....32-50 ATS.....week one.....Riders, Bombers, Lions, Stamps

away dogs..........28-13 ATS

away favorites....20-25 ATS

Keep in mind that these angles were used when there were 18 regular season games played, most would know that  last season only 14 games were played.  I will word these using last year's research and it will be up to you to decide if you want to modify the parameters, as four regular season games were lopped off the schedule.

Teams that won less than 5 games last season in the first four weeks of the season.

As:

away dogs.......24-11 ATS......week one, 2022....Elks (they probably will be small away dogs) and Redblacks

home dogs .....11-5 ATS

home favorites 6-11 ATS.....in week one, 2022 the Lions will probably be favorites

3)  Away dogs that were less than or equal to a 500 team last year in the first four weeks....55-34 ATS....home dogs have been 28-16 ATS.....those teams in 2022 are the Alouettes, Lions, Elks and Redblacks.

4)  A Dogbite Special.....Away dogs week one who have a home game next.....21-7 ATS...........Ottawa, Edmonton, Hamilton

Andrew Harris  to the Argos

Darvin Adams , Shaq Johnson  to Ottawa

Three quarters of every team are free agents every season....is why it is so crazy at the beginning of every CFL season.  It shows who can coach, and who can't.

I checked with the phone company to see if there was a problem with my phone.....I was sure Vegas would be calling me to make me the CFL linemaker deluxe.  Hey, there's still time!

Last year there were quite a few abysmal CFL offenses and scoring was down 7 or more points per game from previous seasons.  Normally UNDERs cash the first month to six weeks of the season and after that they become a 50-50 proposition.  Not last season....scoring started low and descended from there.

Waaaaaay too early Indigo CFL week 1 lines.

Calgary           -3   Monreal 42

Winnipeg       -13   Ottawa  36

Saskatchewan -3    Hamilton 40

BC                  pik  Edmonton 42

Hamilton was an average team most of the season last year, as the championship runners-up curse continued across all sports. (Here's looking at you Bengals.)  Now, they play a second season as previous season runners-up.

Bombers two time defending champs....I look for them to be poor against the spread unless off a loss, or as a dog.

I expect the Elks to be great against the spread and my view is that they'll be most improved team in the league.  I also think Montreal will be very good against the spread, especially on the road.

The first 6 weeks of the season fade teams will be Hamilton, Saskatchewan and the Bombers.

Early leans......Elks, Tiger Cats

Carson Wentz to the Commanders(?!) aka known as the Football Team, previously known as the Redskins. 

What were the Commanders thinking?....the guy is a turnover machine and can't play football.  This will put the Commanders back at least three years and they will be bet-againsts until the more of the public figures it out.  They would have been better off with running it back with Heinicke.

Then there is the Russell Wilson trade.  Think it is a good move for the Seahawks.  For many years, Wilson was my favorite NFL player....awesome to watch him play.  Last year he was bottom 8 quarterback....he got hurt and then looked fat, slow and inaccurate.  Football according to Belichick dictates that you get rid of a guy a year too early rather than a year too late.  Denver is, of course thinking it was related to his injury....I thought the Broncos needed to swing for the fences....worth the risk.  

If Wilson puts together another 5-6 years Denver will have gotten their money's worth.  Seattle was not contending this year or anytime soon anyway.  They rightly got rid of their pathetic defensive coordinator and probably should get rid of Metcalf, their overrated receiver.  They need to retool for a couple of years and get some solid defenders....they'll be last in the division for the next couple of seasons.

Both Pittsburgh and Seattle will have to find quarterbacks....the outlook for Pittsburgh is better because they have a good defense....both play in pretty tough divisions.  I'd love it if the Vikings traded Cousins to one of those two teams......but when you are paying a non-top ten quarterback 45 million bucks for a season, teams are gonna wait out the end of a contract....why would Pittsburgh, knowing that their offensive line will need a total overhaul, and the Seahawks needing a total overhaul of their defense want to acquire a quarterback that has been well-known not to be able to carry a team, when otherwise you are not skilled enough to be an elite team?

The Browns on the other hand are one quarterback away from being elite....they could rightfully talk themselves into acquiring a slight upgrade in Garoppolo/Cousins in an attempt to put themselves over the top or take on a potential media nightmare in getting Watson.

Meanwhile in the CFL the Lions will be starting a new quarterback.....it's risky and besides their defensive backfield and their receivers the rest of the team was below average.  Rick Campbell infamously put his job on the line in thinking that Damario Davis could actually be a pro quarterback, so, not a lot of faith that their evaluation of quarterbacks is any good.  I predict the Lions and the Redblacks both finish last.  Masoli is not gonna overcome the abysmal offensive scheme that is the Redblacks.

Three way fight for the East with Hamilton, Montreal and Toronto fighting it out....I have the Argos third, Montreal second and the Cats first.

Nice thing about the CFL this season is that there will be no dominant team.  Expect the Bombers to come back to the pack and be bad against the spread....think that the clock strikes midnight for Zach being the man in Winnipeg.  I'll be fading them when they aren't playing the Redblacks or the Lions.

https://www.covers.com/forum/cfl/week-1-indigo-lines-2021-103547747/1

Would you like me to make a phone call for you Indigo? Can't wait we'll be football year round this year into next year USFL-CFL-NFL then back to XFL after the SB.

Would you like me to make a phone call for you Indigo? Can't wait we'll be football year round this year into next year USFL-CFL-NFL then back to XFL after the SB.[/Quote]

Ja, talk to your cousin Vinnie and get me in, Hoodman....my talents are going to waste here....lol.  

Actually in actual fact, I may be moving to Vegas in the next few months and a full-time yearlong football season would be lovely.  This year, for the first time I've made money in the NBA, which has been my "leak" for quite a number of years.  I'm looking for the Grizzlies and Mavs to upset some teams to make it to the conference finals.  Liking the Celtics in the East.

Here's hoping the CFL is considerably better than it was last season, the poorest  it's ever been.  Expect to see some scoring and a more balanced league.  Perhaps the Bombers become mere mortals this year and/or Zach becomes who we thought he was a couple of years ago.

Only a couple of months away.

CFL futures are out.....I never bet them, for pizza money I would take the Alouettes and the Elks.

To win Grey Cup....Canadians let me know what your bookies have....these books in Australia are notoriously ripoffs.

1)  Bombers +250

2)  Tiger Cats +450

3)  Riders +500

4)  Argonauts +500

5)  Stampeders +550

6)  Alouettes +800

7)  Elks +1000

8)  Lions +1200

9)  Redblacks +1800 

Watson to the Browns,....the Browns will be my favorite play-on team in the NFL this season, as will the Als and Elks in the CFL.  If the Browns season win total is less than eleven I will be on the OVER.  I am guessing the linemaker would make them 10/10.5.....and perhaps the public will be on them heavy this season. 

I'd take the Elks OVER at anything less than 8.5 (think the their wins total will be 8) and the Alouettes OVER at anything less than 9.5.  I think the power has shifted to the East for the first time in many years with the exception of the pathetic Redblacks.  If the Bombers are anything more than 12 I'd take them UNDER for their season wins.  I expect the Bombers to be less than .500 against the spread as favorites this season.

I just made a play on the Celtics to win the Eastern Conference at +600.

Fivethirtyeight.com gives them a 42% chance of making the finals, which would equate to a line of  +138, so this is a +EV play by a considerable margin.  Of course injuries can enter into it, though the Celtics have no injury prone players which is a big difference to, say the Suns, with Chris Paul who always seems to be injured in the playoffs.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/

Am also contemplating a play on the Grizzlies to win the West at +1000 when their true odds are really closer to +733 of getting to the finals.  Ja Morant gets hurt a lot, however the Grizzlies are 14-2 this season when he doesn't play.

Here is an angle in the NFL and as I recall this also worked in the CFL....I'll have to look at our posts from last year, as right now, the CFL portion of the killersports'  database is not functioning. 

What a pity!

In the NFL.....

from 2018 onwards, away dogs of six or less before week 11 have been 142-85-6 ATS (+2.7), 62.3%.

  a)  If our away dog of <=6 lost  their previous game, they have been 73-37 ATS (+2.2), 66.4%.

  b)  if our away dog's present opponent is off a loss, this has been 64-36 ATS (+3.0), 64%.

Here's an angle for you puckheads out there.....just discovered it a couple of minutes ago.  Not for the faint of heart as you'd be taking dogs, BIG DOGS, big ugly dogs....so favorite only bettors, move right along.

This is for NHL betting.

It takes some 'splaining to get the gist of it.

1)  We are taking an away dog of greater than or equal to +160.  

2)  We are taking the average results of our play-on team for their last 6 games, and comparing it to their present opponent's last 6 per game scoring  average.

3)  If our play-on teams per game average is -1 goal/game or worse compared to their opponent's, we have a play.

4)  We exclude November games.

5)  We exclude playing on teams that are on 3 or more days rest.

Example....our away dog, team A has scored 12 goals and have given up 18 goals combined in their past 6 games....that averages out to scoring 2 goals per game and allowing 3 goals per game.

If their present opponent, team B has scored 15 goals and allowed 12 goals in their past 6 games that means that they are averaging 2.5 goals per game their last six and allowing 2 goals per game their last six games.

We compare the two teams per game average for those six games....team A's scoring average  is -1/game (2 minus 3), and their opponent team B is +.5/game (2.5 minus 2) for their last six games.

Because team A's average per game their last six is -1 or more compared to their opponent's average (-1 minus .5), they are a play as an away dog, as long as the line is +160 or greater.  So, we are playing a team that has played much worse their last games than their opponent.....we are betting that  regression will happen, ok?

These teams win straight up 41.4% of the time, which would equate to around a +144 line.....however the average betting line in our query text has been +182, so this is a quite obvious +EV play.

Here is the query text that I used at gimmethedog.

The average return on investment (ROI) has been slightly greater than 17% per bet.  Good fortune all.

AD and oA(margin, N=6)-tA(margin, N=6)<=-1 and line>=160 and rest<3 and month!=11

The post above in regards to an NHL hockey angle my explanation is incorrect for the query given....I've asked the mods to delete that post, which so far they have not done.

Mods?

Odds to win the division in the NFL are up at my sportsbook.....normally one looks for a two horse race to win the division betting, as obviously making the correct decision between two likely teams is easier than deciding between four possible teams, any of which could win.

Some thoughts.......I like the Chargers in the AFC at around +275, but there are now four good teams in that division.....probable no-play.

I like the Browns at +180, but all four teams are well coached, though I expect Pittsburgh to regress....hard to count Tomlin out when he's never had a losing season.

I like the 49ers in the NFC West, and this is a two horse race....right now they are +200....I want to see what happens with the quarterback situation in SF and to see  if their second year guy is ready to play quarterback in the NFL.  The Rams will regress, A LOT, and if either Kupp or Stafford get injured, (a real possibility) the Rams could miss the playoffs.  The AFC West plays the NFC West this season, which is gonna knock down each teams' season wins total.....none of those teams in either division is getting through that gauntlet unscathed. Think back a couple of years when the Chiefs were the defending champs....they could not cover a game for most of their season.  Neither Stafford or their coach is at the elite level that Reid or Mahomes is. 

The 49ers will have to learn how to win at home this season....Kyle Shanahan's home record as an NFL head coach is only 20-19 SU and 16-22 ATS...as a home favorite he is 9-15 ATS.....on the road he is 27-17 ATS....17-10 ATS as a road dog, almost the exact reciprocal of his home favorite record for those paying attention.  The 49ers will continue to be very good on the road, however their ability to win the division this year will be predicated on performing like a good team should at home.

What happened last year in Winnipeg with the Bombers dominating as defending champs is much more the exception than the rules these days....and even then they were fortunate in the playoffs to win it again.  I think the Bombers will struggle with the huge lines the bookmaker is going to saddle them with.  For the first half of the season I expect that their average line they will favored by  over a touchdown per game.....it will be a clear sell sign if the Redblacks somehow stay within two touchdowns of the Bombers in week 1.

I just placed a futures play on the Grizzlies +700 to win the Western conference.  Since the New Year, the Grizzlies have outperformed the Suns on a scoring margin per game basis.  Beating the Suns the other day with four of their starters out versus the Suns' starting five was very impressive and was the final item that made me pull the trigger.

Number one seeds (Suns) have won only 7 out of the last 24 NBA titles.  

The two most dangerous teams that either the Suns or the Grizzlies play before  they possibly play each other would be the Clippers and  Timberwolves.  I expect both the Clippers and the Timberwolves to make it through the play-in tournament, though the Pelicans now are a very good team.  All three of those teams......LAC, Minny and NO are better than the Warriors, Nuggets and Jazz.

I can hedge the Grizzlies bet if the situation demands.......if  both Memphis and Phoenix make it through to the conference finals. Barring injury, the Grizzlies would be +200ish versus the Suns in a 7 game series.  If, theoretically I put 1,000 on the Grizzlies at 7 to 1, if those two mentioned teams make it to the conference finals I could put two thousand on the Suns at -200, which would be a breakeven wager if the Suns won the series versus Memphis and which would make my Grizzlies wager an opportunity to make 5,000 on the Grizzlies risk-free.  The Suns are not a gimme to make it to the finals, and if they lose either Booker or Paul to another injury they ain't winning the Western conference title.

I have bought out of my Celtics play to win their conference and took a 20% loss on my wager as I am uneasy about the Robert Williams injury.

Seven weeks to go to the start of the CFL season....draft coming up for both the CFL and NFL, soon.

After chickening out of my Celtics' conference winner bet, I got back on board with them at +260, rather than +600 for my biggest wager of the year.  They look very good, even with Williams in a very diminished role...I expect that role to increase, especially if the Celts get to the conference finals and play the 76ers with Embiid if he's still around.   I don't have a lot of faith in Jason Tatum as the lead scorer for the Celtics, but they all are incredible defensively which makes up for a lot of deficiencies.

For Canadians, there'd be wringing of hands over what has transpired with the Raptors and excitement at what could be this season for the Blue Jays.  The Blue Jays would be the equivalent of the Grizzlies in the NBA.....young, confident and supremely talented....I'll watch them with interest as they are playing in an awfully tough division.  The Grizzlies, on the other hand are going through a playoff apprenticeship and if they get by the Timberwolves the Warriors are lurking and unless Morant plays like a superstar the Grizz could go down.  Blue Jays oughta be a cash cow this season during the regular season, and then we'll see how they respond in October.  Meanwhile Calgary and the Maple Leafs are both good this season....it's good for hockey when the Canadian teams are in the mix for Lord Stanley's cup.

My Wild will be facing Saint Louis in the first round, and if the Blues come a dog, I'll probably be on them, as they just seem to have the Wild's number.  Wild have to beat both the Avalanche and the Flames in their last three games  to get home ice over the Blues, but right now, neither Calgary nor Colorado have anything to play for so perhaps they'd take the night off.

I just have run some NHL playoff queries from gimmethedog.com....the queries below have shown some solid results in the past.

1)  Away playoff dogs that lost their last away game have been 150-159 straight up (-0.2), for an ROI of 15.11%.  To qualify our away playoff away dog must have made the playoffs the previous season.

AD  and playoffs=1 and tS(W@A, N=1)=0 and tpS(playoffs)>0

Away playoff dogs in this situation with a line  of >=+170 have gone 17-22 straight up for an ROI of 31.74%.

2)  Away playoff dogs that lost their previous game at home have been 70-89 straight up for an ROI of 6.51%

if instead, they lost on the road, and now are away dogs they've been 71-58 (+0.1) straight up, 29.01% ROI.  To qualify our team must have made the playoffs the previous season.

AD and tpS(playoffs)>0 and playoffs=1 and p:AL

3)  Away playoff dogs that in their last two games have a scoring margin of 0 or -1 have been 73-73 straight up (-0.1) for an ROI of 18.3%.

To give an example,....say our away dog's last two games they won 5-4 and lost 2-4,...that would be a margin of -1 (+1 plus -2=-1) which would qualify as a play.   We add the margins of each game, WE DON'T AVERAGE.   To qualify our team must have made the playoffs last season (tpS(playoffs)>0). 

AD and tpS(playoffs)>0 and playoffs=1 and 0>=tS(margin, N=2)>-2

In running these queries I have done them stipulating that our team made the playoffs and then,  that they didn't.  To be brief, PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE MATTERS, and there's little or no profit to be made taking teams that are playoff neophytes....IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY THESE QUERIES ONLY PLAY THEM IF OUR PLAY-ON TEAM WENT TO THE PLAYOFF THE PREVIOUS SEASON.

I am looking at a couple of futures wagers for the NFL, I would place these wagers in August more than likely, so what I am putting down here are my thoughts on paper, which increases my success typically.  Those who disagree can come back with alternative views that sometimes will sway me off a play.  It's one of the benefits of a public forum....one can air his opinion and others can chime in.  There are those that feel insulted that not everyone agrees their perception of reality.....I just don't get that.  We're not here to influence others to our point of view, but to take money from the bookmaker.....so, disagreement is good, if everyone thinks team A is unstoppable for the coming season and you like team A, your futures odds are gonna be terrible, so there is great benefit in disagreement in sports betting or the stock market, etc, it's what make a market.  There, of course will be some people that when they find the best ice cream they've ever had, will insist that everyone in their sphere of influence with have to try that ice cream and also love it to validate what they've said.   In sports betting those people that like to influence others often have a hard time in sports betting because their ego gets in the way of them changing their mind or others having a different view.  We must be open to the idea that we will be wrong, FREQUENTLY.

First consideration is the Chiefs UNDER 10.5 wins for the season.  There are now four tough teams the division, when before there was only the Chiefs.  There are now two other elite quarterbacks in the division and the other one is at least above average with a top three receiver to throw to after his trade from the Packers.  This, AND, they play the NFC West this season in their crossover games.  The Chiefs also play a first place schedule this season, so their two games that differentiate their schedule from their three divisional opponents will be opponents that were first place teams from last season.  

I also don't like what I have seen from Mahomes the last two seasons.  Evidently he hurt his foot at some time, but it looked like he either was afraid to throw the ball down field last season or the other teams have figured them out, or maybe some of both.  The season prior to last season when coming off a Super Bowl win, they had about the worst covering record in the league, they won a ton of close games.  This year, I think it will all fall apart for them.  They have lost their deep threat in Hill, one of the best players that Andy Reid says he's ever seen.  The Honey Badger is also likely not coming back....say what you will about him, but the KC defense improved by miles and miles when he was back playing secondary for the Chiefs.

Secondly, I like the 49ers this season....the book I have, has them at +200 to win the division and +550 to win the NFC.  When betting on a team in divisional futures, I like to bet ON teams where I think only one of two teams have a chance to win, and to go against teams where there are four possible winners.  The AFC North is another stacked division and it doesn't make sense to me to try to pick one of four teams that could win, versus one of two.  I like that Garoppolo is getting replaced by an athletic quarterback who can be a threat to run.  I like that their defensive coordinator is returning with a defense that was stellar last season.  I like that Anthony Lynn is the running backs coach and assistant head coach, which would lead me to expect that the 49ers running attack will be excellent again this season, it was for the Lions last season, as it was for the Chargers when he was head coach.  Also, the 49ers beat the Rams in their two regular season games last season,....it means they can match-up with the Super Bowl champs.  The negatives for the 49ers has been that they have been terrible on their home field with Shanahan, which fits with my research that teams both in college and in the pros that run the ball well do much better in their road games than they do at home.....look at Minnesota, Wisconsin, Air Force and Army (and now Illinois) in their home/away records and you'll see that their road record is better than their home game record, same  with the Ravens with Lamar Jackson has been very good on the road.  It'll be something to keep an eye on this season.

First day of CFL draft is complete,....first preseason game is less than 3 weeks away, and the start of the regular season is five and a half  weeks away.

It'll be here before you know it.....

Hopefully we'll be a few bucks richer, being the wiley bettors that we are on the NHL playoffs....I was having a conversation with Spottie today, and I might see if the Wild might get a road win in Saint Louis in series game either 3 or 4 after getting trashed by the Blues in game 1.  I am taking the OVER in the Heat/76ers' game 2 tomorrow.

Still hoping on the Celtics, though I may do some hedging in their series with the Bucks,...if the Celtics were to go up 2-1, I may hedge on the Bucks moneyline in game 4.

Can't wait, talked with Spottie not long ago. What bottom team last year do you think will make the biggest change this year? 

I like the Elks to improve heaps,....and perhaps after the Lions' new qb gets his feet wet, they could do well in the second half of the season.  I don't see the Redblacks doing anything until they get a new coach.

76ers game went OVER for the win.  In series games 3 I am taking the Mavericks to beat the Suns and the Warriors minus the points over the Grizzlies.

NFL season schedule comes out next week on May 12th.

Here is a week 1 NFL angle......this has been good, historically, though since 2019 this has only been 2-3 ATS.  Also, this for the first time ever teams are coming off a 17 game schedule, so using past parameters is a bit tricky

Parameters below....

  1)  Play ON an NFL week one away dog.

  2)  Our play ON team won 4, 5 or 6 regular season games the season prior.

  3)  Our play On team won less games last regular season than their week one opponent.

57-30-4 ATS, 28-63 straight up, 49-44 o/u.

Average line +6.4, average total 42.1, average score 19.9-23.9.

week=1 and AD and 7>PRSW>3 and PRSW

Here is an NHL angle for the playoffs.....

In round 1, series game two, when a team is off a game one away loss of more than 2 goals (Nashville), with one day's rest, they have been 30-5 against the puck line (+1.5) in series game two......Predators +1.5

In round one, series game two  road team when they are off a one goal loss in series game one (Dallas) they likewise have gone 30-5 against the puckline as long as they are on one day's rest......Stars +1.5

I am on the Stars (-120) and the Predators  (+120) against the puckline tonight.