CFL statistics

The East is off to a good start, 3-0 ATS & 2-1 SU, including Ottawa winning at Calgary.

After the first game total went under, the next 3 flew over the total. 

That is, in games against the Western division of the CFL. 

Crazy line movement in the Ottawa/Saskatchewan total, from 49.5 to 45, even 43.5 at one book. 

To a much lesser & minor degree there is early slight leans at Pinnacle to Sask +5 -109, BC +4 -109 & Hamilton -2.5 -115. 

Let's try that again:

Thu 20/06 Football Canadian Football Odds

16.30

Saskatchewan Roughriders

+181

+5.5-107

Over 44.5

-104

Under 44.5

-112

Ottawa RedBlacks

-211

-5.5 -107

Fri 21/06 Football Canadian Football Odds

18.00

BC Lions

+156

+4-109

Over 55.5

-106

Under 55.5

-110

Edmonton Eskimos

-180

-4 -105

Sat 22/06 Football Canadian Football Odds

13.00

Hamilton Tiger-Cats

-165

-3.5-109

Over 52

-108

Under 52

-108

Toronto Argonauts

+143

+3.5 -105

That was live info from Pinnacle:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/odds/match/football/canada/canadian-football

How about a teaser...e.g. 4 picks & 13 points @ -140:

Ottawa +7.5 & under 57.5

BC under 68.5

Toronto under 65

Or do you like 3 picks, 10 points, @ -130:

Ottawa under 54.5

BC under 65.5

Toronto under 62

"CFL... Seeing light sharp action on the Saskatchewan Roughriders +5. The public is also on them a little so it is pushing the line down a bit. Nothing clean on the total. Mix of money on both sides."

Sask got the backdoor cover. As for Friday night:

"CFL... Some sharp action on Edmonton. Public all over BC. Not a Pro's v Joe's game as the sharps would need to be stronger. The total is a mash of everyone on both sides."

FWIW sherwood's remarks re a CFL game going tonight:

7:00 PM EST. When the lines first came out, we tweeted out to bet Calgary -4 because the number was flawed or off. Today that number is -6 but Pinnacle has it -6½. We could buy it back and attempt a middle but we’re going to “go with the best of it” here and let our bet stand. Although we never recommend betting a bad number, for record keeping purposes, we’re going to grade this one at the current price of Calgary -6.

It is now up to you if you want to spot a “bad number” with Calgary, layoff the game entirely or take the points. When we say a bad number, we mean that you could have bet Calgary on Tuesday at -4 or -4½, -5 on Wednesday morning and -5½ later in the day. If you bet Calgary now, you are playing them at the worst number but again, it’s up to you what you want to do. 

[image from unapproved source]

We’re going to trust the Stamps to go gate to wire in an easy win. Many folks were turned off by the Stampeders last week in their 10-point win over Toronto. The Argos turned the ball over 7 times (!) and yet Calgary didn’t cover and only scored 26 points. They were actually fortunate to win a game in which the opposition turned the ball over seven times. Calgary was outgained by 141 yards by a team that turned it over seven times. The numbers from last week regarding the Stamps but we’re not going to put emphasis on one game. That said, we’re letting our bet stand and recommending the Stamps based on Pinnacle Sports being a half point higher on the Stamps than anyone else. Pinnacle is staying firm at -6½ while the rest of the sportsbooks are at -6. When Pinnacle “takes a position” we are aware and you should be too. 

sherwood's pick for today is BC Lions +120 ML & i quote:

[image from unapproved source]

continued from previous post:

The 1-5 Lions went into Saskatchewan last week and lost 38-25 but outgained the Riders by nearly 100 yards. The Lions have outgained three of their last four opponents while the Riders have been outgained in their last two games by nearly 300 combined yards. The last two teams that Saskatchewan outgained were Ottawa and Toronto and that pair is a combined 0-10 in the last five weeks. The Riders outgained Ottawa by 21 yards when others are outgaining them by 250 yards. The Lions out-everythinged the Riders in Saskatchewan last week including more yards, time of possession, net yards rushing, net yards passing, first downs (27-19) and everything else. The misleading final score read 38-25 in favor of the second best team on the field.  

We remind you once again that the Lions are 0-2 at home where they have been humiliated. There is no tomorrow now. Mike Reilly is a proven QB that is not only legit, he’s feisty as hell and he’s steamed up. It’s all hands on deck here against a beatable opponent and the Lions cannot and will not be flat, instead, they’ll be hugely motivated to get off the mattress and give fans their money’s worth. Will the Lions win? That we don’t know but what we do know is that the wrong side is favored and we’re going to stick with playing value. Lions outright is the confident call here.    

Ticats starting QB out for the year.

https://3downnation.com/2019/07/27/ticats-qb-jeremiah-masoli-tears-acl-hell-miss-the-rest-of-the-2019-season/

"TC's have always had problems with the Riders, especially at Mosaic. So even if Masoli was playing next week it wouldn't shock me if TC's lost. They then get the hopeless Lions at THF."

Are there any betting opportunities to take advantage of with futures after the Masoli injury:

Updated Mon, July 22, 1:00 PM ET - Odds Subject to Change

ODDS TO WIN 2019 GREY CUP 

Wpg +175

Ticats +300

Edm +500

Calg +600

Sask +1000

Mont +1600

Ott +2000

BC +5000

Tor +30,000

"Hmm...never thought it was possible...but the Lions actually suck more than the Canucks."

---

"Way more. Only Whitecaps worse and that says something."

"The Argonauts aren’t in the greatest position at 0-6, and have lost eight straight dating back to the end of the 2018 season. But things could be worse. They still have ways to go to match the Ottawa franchise that lost 25 consecutive games between 1928 and 1933."


"Argos’ quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson is the league-leader in interceptions with nine. He’s thrown at least one interception in all but one game played this season."

sherwood's pick for the first game of today's double header:

TORONTO +14½ over Winnipeg

7:00 PM EST. Earlier in the week, we cited this line as being “stupid” and we’re not coming off that position. We’re actually shocked that this number hasn’t dropped, as the original plan to try and middle this game is now off the table. We are more than happy to allow our bet on the Argos to stand as is. 

We could go into the X’s and O’s of this game but as we always maintain, that matters not. We also understand that the Argonauts are pure garbage but our position is that the Blue Bombers are damn near garbage too but the market believes that they’re “very good” because of their 5-1 record. Once again, that’s results influencing this market and not the ingredients so let’s have a look at Winnipeg’s “great record”. 

In its first game of the year, Winnipeg beat B.C. 33-23 but were out-passed by 140 yards and Winnipeg led by three going to the fourth quarter. The Blue Bombers won the turnover battle 2-0. Winnipeg was 1-0 after Game 1 but dominating they were not and could’ve just as easily lost against the worst looking team that this league has seen in 40 years. 

Game 2 - Winnipeg 28-21. Edmonton scored seven times in that game while Winnipeg scored four times. Seven field goals to four TD’s is very simply bad luck. Edmonton outgained Winnipeg by 162 yards but Winnipeg somehow managed to come out smelling like roses. Instead of easily being 0-2, the Bombers were 2-0. 

Game 3. Winnipeg went into Ottawa and clearly outplayed the Redblacks in a 29-14 victory. It was deserving. 

Game 4. As a 16-point favorite over these same Argonauts back in Manitoba, The Blue Bombers took the games’ opening kickoff for a TD and ran back a punt return to the Argos six-yard line 90 seconds later to be gifted 14 points. Toronto had more first downs than Winnipeg, they outgained Winnipeg by 25 yards and when the game was 34-14, Toronto was on Winnipeg’s one-yard line before turning it over. That would’ve made the score 40-26. Instead, Winnipeg scored a few plays later and made the final score (48-21) look like a complete blowout when it was anything but.

Game 5. Once again the Blue Bombers blew away the QB-less Redblacks 31-1. Ottawa looked like a high school team and even inserted their third string QB in the fourth quarter. It was a deserving win. 

Game 6. Winnipeg’s extreme good fortune continued after Hamilton jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead. However, on the TD pass that made it 14-0, Ticats star QB, Jerimiah Masoli was knocked out for the rest of the game and for the rest of the season. That was in the first quarter and it gave Winnipeg plenty of time to come back and win but instead, their offense couldn’t move five yards and they lost to a backup QB, 23-15. Had Masoli not gone down, the final score might have ended up 51-14 because that’s how dominant Hamilton was in the first seven minutes. 

The Bombers résumé is that they outplayed Ottawa twice. Winnipeg could easily be 2-4 and not 5-1 and then the market wouldn’t be talking about “how good they are”. Matt Nichols is horrible and their coach, Mike O’Shea is a clueless idiot who is better suited to work with the defense because he knows nothing about offense, clock management, situations or anything else that is not defense related. Now this very average team is spotting a massive road price that one rarely sees in this nine-league team and it’s not warranted. 

Man, what are we going to say about the Argonauts that Matt Dunigan hasn’t drooled over already? They’re bad, they’re 0-6 but they do have two covers and probably should have three with that aforementioned Winnipeg game being the other. Trust us when we tell you that Edmonton is superior to Winnipeg. We mention that because Toronto went into Edmonton last week and were an 11½-point dog. The week before, Toronto went into Calgary and opened as a 10-point dog before the market pounded the Stamps to cause the line to move to -13½ by game time. Toronto lost by 10 that day and clearly should have won. The Argos turned the ball over 7 times (!) and still could’ve won. To recap, the Argods were a 10 and 11½ point dog on the road in Calgary and Edmonton the past two weeks and now they’re a 14½-point dog to a grossly overrated Winnipeg team. We guarantee nothing here in terms of covering but we promise you that this line is way out of whack and hopefully the oddsmakers pay us for posting such a bad number. Hopefully the 400 fans at the game, all over the age of 65, will cheer the Double Blue to an easy cover. This is by far the best value of the year so far.