CFL week 10

CFL 27-14 season-to-date

This forum has been awesome this year....others contributing a lot of winners....Hoody having another very good season.  "Hey Hoodman, don't forget the p:."......LOL. 

Indigo did not do his part this week as for some inexplicable reason he decided that OVERs were the way to go, and of course he was punished for it.

Alright, the Redlacks got a W this week in a game that saw two neophyte quarterbacks start and play the whole game.  As we've seen in the NFL, rookie quarterbacks have their problems, especially on the road.  Looking more likely every week that the Argos are the best team in the East and of course the Bombers are dominating the league.

The CFL writers had an excellent week (for them) going 2-2 in their picks.

Toronto -11  Ottawa 44......will the Argos be looking past this game for their showdown with the Argos in a few days?

Winnipeg -14 Edmonton 40.....Winnipeg names this score, though perhaps they sleepwalk through the first half.

Riders -6 Calgary 44........revenge is the most potent motivator in sports....think the Sasquatches will crush them.

Montreal -9 Ottawa 46......Montreal is a type of team that can't stand prosperity....would not play them as a big fav. 

Tiger Cats -3 Argos 40.....Cats' runner-up woes continue, there is something completely missing with this team though they look to be solidly coached....they cant run the ball and they are making no big plays on offense.  Coughing up their big lead has to hurt, if they lose here the only thing that will save their season is that they get to play Ottawa a couple of more times.

NFL 17-9 on the season, 2-3 last week.

A week 5 team at home that has one less win than their present opponent.....58-35 ATS

Chargers (if they lose tomorrow), Chiefs, Seahawks, Bengals.

A week 5 home team whose opponent has 3 wins, 61-44 ATS

Chiefs, Chargers, Seahawks, Bengals

A week 5 divisional away dog that is averaging less points per game  than their present opponent, 89-58  ATS......Lions, Giants, 49ers.

week=5 and tA(points)>oA(points) and division=o:division

A team that has the lesser average scoring margin in week 5

As:

Home favorites, 61-44 ATS...........Chiefs

Away dogs of <=6, 42-31 ATS......Eagles, Bears, 49ers

A week 5 away favorite with their next game at home, 32-48 ATS....VERSUS Saints, Rams

Plays:

1)  Bengals +3'

2)  Seahawks +1

3)  Giants +7'

4)  Eagles +4'

Correction from above....

A week 5 divisional dog that is scoring less points per game  than their present opponent, 64-43  ATS

As away dogs, 43-29 ATS....Giants, Lions, 49ers

As home dogs,21-14 ATS.....Jaguars  

week=5 and tA(points)<oA(points) and division=o:division and HD, AD

A week 5 home dog that allows less points per game than their present opponent...20-4-1......Bengals, Seahawks

Plays:

Adding:

6)  Lions +8

5)  49ers +4'

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1)  Bengals +3'

2)  Seahawks +1

3)  Giants +7'

4)  Eagles +4'

Correction:

A week 5 away favorite with their next game at home, 32-48 ATS....VERSUS Saints, Rams is not correct....should be VERSUS Patriots, Titans......

however if those teams are off a loss this moves to only 9-9 ATS, which is applicable to both indicated teams' situation this week.

Updated plays....contest plays will be out Wednesday/Thursday-ish.

Plays:

1)  Lions +8 ("Wondering Where The Lions Are", Bruce Cockburn, Canadian artist, one of Indigo top 10 all-time songs, look it up on youtube.)

2)  Giants +7

3)  Seahawks +2

4)  Bengalis +3

5)  Dolphins +10'

6)  Jaguars +4

7)  Bills +2'

Heavy leans 49ers, Bears

Little known fact.....The Guess Who, Alanis, are Indigo  top five all-time favorite artists,.......Canadians, must be the moose droppings that go into the water supply that all Canadians drink.  Sweet City Woman, Stampeders, top 10 all-time favorite song.  Limelight, Rush top ten all-time Indigo favorite song.

Northern Exposure...........Indigo favorite all-time sitcom set in Alaska, which of course is negotiating to secede from the USA to become a  province of Canada. The CFL in Anchorage, Alaska?..... OH YEAH!

Lions, 49ers, Giants fall into a divisional dog angle that is 19-1 ATS since 2014.

Bengals, Seahawks fall into an angle that is 20-4-1 ATS 

The others fall into a newly discovered angle that I won't go into.

The Dolphins fall into a 68-28 ATS angle.

I loved Northern Exposure.  My brother and sister-in-law took their honeymoon in Alaska and have since returned.

I don't get much from the sites any more and I've tried all 3.

I am surprised you chose BUF in Comment #6.  The query in Comment #2 likes KC and so does this variation:

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=week+%3D+5+and+HF+and+wins+-+o%3Awins+%3D+-1+and+op%3Apoints+%3E+28.5&submit=%3A%3A%3A+S+D+Q+L+%21

It is 10-1 ATS,  Such a small sample size inspires little confidence, but it would put me off BUF no matter what Massey's power ratings say.

I would go visit Cicely, Alaska if there was such a place!!

Thanks for the heads-up on Buffalo....it is not in the inner circle of plays, not top five for the contest anyway.

Plays:

1)  Lions +8 ("Wondering Where The Lions Are", Bruce Cockburn, Canadian artist, one of Indigo top 10 all-time songs, look it up on youtube.)

2)  Giants +7

3)  Bengalis +3

4)  Dolphins +10'

5)  Jaguars +4

6)  Bills +2'

Considering 49ers as they qualify on a excellent query that is 19-1 ATS since 2014, however rookie quarterbacks on the road have done terribly, so probably not.  Shanahan excellent in division as away dog and overall pathetic as a home favorite.

Considering Bears, they also have very good indicators, but probably not for the same quarterback reason and Matt Nagy is my least favorite coach in the NFL.

As far as the Chiefs/Bills go, I did a query on teams that won 13 or more games the season prior (both Buffalo and KC qualified along with GB), and those teams have done terribly as home favorites early season and very well as away dogs....this encompassed the first four weeks of the season, and since the "PRSW" is no longer on the roster of query parameters with killersports, I can't see if it goes beyond the first four weeks, probably not nearly as good as I would think I would have looked at it in detail, but can't know for sure how it performed into October.

Also, somehow I made a mistake on the Seahawks qualifying under a home underdog that has the better defense on a points per game allowed basis....perhaps ESPN or whoever I referenced did not update their stats at the time I looked it up.

So, deleting my play on the Seahawks.

A week 5  home non-divisional dog who has more than one win  whose opponent has 3 wins and 1 loss has been 7-0 ATS, 7-0 straight up.....Bengals, Chargers (if they become a home dog versus the Browns.

Home non-divisional favorites in this situation 13-9 ATS....Chargers, Chiefs

Home divisional dogs in this situation 3-3 ATS.................Seahawks

Plays: 

These will be my contest plays....perhaps the line may vary slightly from what I'm listing, as the entry form for the week comes out on Wednesday afternoon.....

1)  Bengals +3

2)  Giants +7

3)  49ers +5'......Garropolo may play, and I've changed my mind on them as I think they outrush the Cardinals, especially if Lance starts

4)  Lions +7'

5)  Dolphins +10

Other plays....Jaguars +4, if the Chargers become a dog versus the Browns, which looks possible, I'll be on them as well.  Also, if the Steelers become a dog, which will probably not happen I will be on them.

Adding:

7)  Eagles +4

___________________

6)  Jaguars +4

5)  Dolphins +10

4)  Lions +7'

3)  49ers +5'

2)  Giants +7

1)  Bengals +3

Meanwhile, up north.......

Sports Interaction  has put out their preliminary lines, which as we've seen vary sometimes markedly from what the big bookies put out.

IF those lines are pretty close I will be taking the Roughriders -3'ish versus the Stamps and Toronto +5ish versus the Tiger Cats.

What to make of the Elks and the Redblacks?  We'll wait and see with both teams using qbs who to my knowlege  hadn't played until last week.  Usually rookies on the road equals disaster right away and we've got the Redblacks playing two road games within a week and the Elks playing the defending champs on the road.  Interceptions and fumbles, the deadly duo and spreadbusters (is that a word?) of those backing a team, should be rife for those rookies.  

Will be hugely surprised if in those three games those two teams cover more than once and/or will win one game.  If I were teasing kind of guy I'd do a three way teaser on the opponents  of the Elks and Redblacks.

Baseball playoffs.....evidently recent form is an indicator of winning.

Play ON an away dog of less than or equal to +170 that has the better record the last 10 games in playoff series games 1-4......74-62 straight up, +25% ROI.

tS(W, N=10)> oS(W, N=10) and playoffs = 1 and -170 <= line <= 170 and AD and series game<5

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Play ON a home favorite of less than -170 in the first two games of a playoff series that has the better record the last ten games.

41-21 +14% ROI, 39.7% ROI on the runline

tS(W, N=10)> oS(W, N=10) and playoffs = 1 and line>=-170 and HF and series game<3

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Team record their last ten games...

Astros 4-6

White Sox 8-2

Rays 7-3

Red Sox 5-5

Brewers 4-6

Braves 8-2

Cardinals 7-3

Dodgers 9-1

Giants 8-2

Braves + is an indicated play in their first game versus the Brewsters.

Teams favored by -170 or more as home favorites in the baseball playoffs before series game 4, with the better last ten game record have been 30-8 ATS +17.5% ROI, and 22-10, 37.6% ROI versus the run line.

Dodgers over the Cardinals

The top 5 Westgate picks last week went 3-2 bringing their season total to 9-11 ATS....this falls almost exactly into line what I have said, in that the public gets it right 42-45% of the time, which added onto the fact that the house makes money even if the public wins 50% of the time, is why sportsbooks are a gold mine......we'll see how this goes the whole season......the winners were Seattle, KC, Baltimore.....and I could see those teams fail to cover this week.

The Vikings lost and the Bucs won but didn't cover. 

If one follows the public consistently, YOU WILL LOSE.  Figure out how to zig when the public is in zag mode.

The bottom 5, or the least most popular  teams  went 0-3 (two teams played each other) and I want to keep my eye on those teams the NEXT WEEK, to see if they might undergo a reversal....those teams were the Jags, Bengals, Texans, 49ers, Eagles......from what I have already listed I like four of them this week, the Eagles, 49ers, Jaguars and Bengals. 

Generally speaking, you can win by backing those ugly, unpopular teams, although one feels quite foolish if they lose.  The Redblacks have fallen into that category this season, though typically you would wait until a team like that is off a loss playing as a dog.

Public betting percentages on KOC contest.

7)  Eagles +4...........Eagles 41%

6)  Jaguars +4.........Jaguars 29%

5)  Dolphins +10......Dolphins 41%

4)  Lions +7'............Lions 46%

3)  49ers +5'...........49ers 36%

2)  Giants +7..........Giants 37%

1)  Bengals +3........Bengals 27%

NFL

A team that has lost its first four games of the season off a loss their previous game and now are an away dog....168-136 ATS, 55.3%

If our away dog is playing  an October or November game....120-77 ATS, 60.9%

If, also this is a divisional game...................................50-27 ATS, 64.9%

If, also our away dog will be favored or their opponent will be a dog their next game...38-14 ATS, 73.1% 

Play ON......Lions....they have played their other two divisional opponents already on the road, so this is it for Detroit this season.

The Jaguars will qualify for their November road game at the Colts (if they are an underdog) if they are off a loss the week before playing  the Bills at home.

Just submitted contest plays.....

1)  Lions +9'

2)  49ers +5'

3)  Giants +7

4)  Bengals +3

5)  Dolphins +10

Eagles just missed out.

Teams that won as home favorites via shut out and then are on the road as away dogs have been 16-30 ATS,.........7-20-1 ATS (-4.3) and 4-24 straight up (-8.96)......VERSUS Bills

I am tied with 72 others in the contest at 14-6......72 more are ahead of us.....if a genie approaches me and offers to give me 70% for the entire contest I'd take it in a second, which would equate to hitting 63 out of a possible 90 plays.

@Indigo999

 KC this week 4 me   very times I will be on KC but this one is very solid